LONDON, March 29, 2026, 18:06 BST
Silver starts the week just shy of $70 an ounce, lifted by Friday’s bounce. The metal remains trapped between safe-haven flows on the Iran conflict and big moves in U.S. rate expectations. Spot silver finished Friday up 2.2% at $69.54, with gold up at $4,491.78, and both platinum and palladium ticking higher as well. “The recent selloff created a really good opportunity,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, speaking to Reuters. Reuters
This day, oil, the dollar, and U.S. yields are all shifting in directions that can put a lid on silver’s climb. Brent wrapped up Friday at $112.57 a barrel. The dollar index logged its fourth session of gains. U.S. 10-year Treasuries pushed to 4.428%, with markets leaning hard into the higher-for-longer Fed scenario.
The first hurdle: next Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls. That key jobs print lands April 3 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters as of Friday are looking for a 55,000 gain in March, with the jobless rate holding at 4.4%.
Timing could stir up volatility. The NYSE will close U.S. stock markets for Good Friday on April 3, according to its announcement. Meanwhile, a CME holiday memo notes Good Friday doesn’t count as a delivery or payment day for COMEX—the main U.S. metals futures venue—and says for markets not settled on April 3, end-of-day prices will carry forward from April 2. That setup might shift a chunk of silver trades and position-squaring into Thursday’s New York session.
Up first: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Harvard talk hits Monday, with the ISM manufacturing data following as April kicks off. For silver, either event could jolt the dollar and shift rate bets ahead of payrolls.
Silver faces sharper moves than gold, caught between its role as a store of value and as a vital component in everything from EVs and solar panels to electronics. Back in February, the Silver Institute projected the market would rack up a sixth consecutive structural deficit in 2026—demand once again outpacing supply. They see industrial demand easing by 2% to 650 million ounces, but anticipate a 20% jump in physical investment to 227 million ounces.
This year’s whipsaw action makes more sense when you consider silver’s dual nature. Prices exploded to a record $121.6 on Jan. 29, only to crater by more than 25% in a single session. Analysts, according to Reuters, now peg a healthier range near $60 to $70, meaning Friday’s close is now brushing up against the lower bound, not surfing any kind of peak.
The trade remains jumpy. Pakistan brought Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia to the table on Sunday to hash out proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—once the route for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG—while Iran kept up its warnings to the U.S. against launching a ground offensive. Carl Weinberg at High Frequency Economics, responding to Thursday’s jobless claims, flagged the lag before such shocks hit labor markets: “Things will decay, we are sure. However, they have not started to decay yet.” For silver, that’s left payrolls, Powell, and oil locked in a tug-of-war to see if $70 ends up as support or turns back into resistance. Reuters
