Published: 8 December 2025
Key takeaways
- Silver set fresh record highs around $59/oz on 5 December 2025 and is still trading just below that level, with spot prices near $58.5/oz on 7 December and up roughly 90–100% year‑to‑date, far outpacing gold’s ~60% gain. [1]
- The December 5–7 surge has been driven by aggressive Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations, a weaker US dollar and a broad commodity bid, with futures markets now pricing an ~85–87% chance of a 25 bps cut at the 9–10 December Fed meeting. [2]
- Supply remains structurally tight: the silver market is on track for its fifth consecutive structural deficit in 2025, as industrial use (especially solar, EVs and electronics) hits record levels and mine supply responds only slowly. [3]
- ETF and investment demand have gone into overdrive, with about 15.7 million ounces added to silver ETFs in November alone and total holdings around 1.1 billion ounces, helping push prices to all‑time highs. [4]
- Fresh forecasts between 5–7 December from FXEmpire, Ouro and others see silver consolidating above $57–58/oz and potentially climbing toward $62–70/oz by late 2026, while more aggressive scenarios talk about $100/oz if supply deficits and rate cuts persist. [5]
1. What happened to silver prices between 5 and 7 December 2025?
A three‑day burst at record levels
The latest leg of the silver rally began before 5 December, when the metal first broke above previous records near $58/oz in early December. One widely cited report notes an intraday high around $59.66/oz, taking silver’s gain for 2025 to roughly +100%, with ETF holdings and tight supply underpinning the move. [6]
By the Fed policy week of 5–7 December, price action accelerated:
- 5 December (Friday)
- Spot silver rose about 2.6% to $58.59/oz, after touching a new record around $59.32/oz, according to Reuters. That left the metal up about 4% on the week. [7]
- TradingEconomics data show silver around $58.28/oz on the same day, up 2.07% versus Thursday and more than 21% higher on the month and 88% higher year‑on‑year. [8]
- Several commodity desks highlighted that silver was now moving in lockstep with expectations of a Fed rate cut the following week and a softer dollar, turning a “gold rally” into a broad precious‑metals stampede. [9]
- 6 December (Saturday)
- With futures markets closed, attention shifted to technical and sentiment analyses.
- Silver Phoenix 500’s “Silver Price Exclusive Update – December 6, 2025” reported that their cycle indicator is up, current Commitment of Traders (COT) data support higher prices, and that silver is on a long‑term BUY signal, with SLV (the iShares Silver Trust) and SILJ both on short‑term buy signals. [10]
- Another Silver Phoenix roundup flagged that “silver [is] closing in on $60” and pulled together analyst pieces on the “silver disconnection” and supply‑side stories like India allowing silver as loan collateral. [11]
- 7 December (Sunday)
- Live spot prices from bullion dealers such as JM Bullion showed silver trading around $58.55/oz mid‑afternoon US time, a gain of about 2.2% on the day, keeping the metal just shy of all‑time highs. [12]
- A widely circulated piece titled “Silver Price Today (December 7, 2025): Record Highs Near $59, Fed Cut Bets and the 2026–2030 Outlook” summarised how major wires had reported the record around $59.3/oz on Friday and emphasised the link to Fed rate‑cut bets and chronic supply tightness. The Economic Times+3TechStock²+3Reuters+3
- In equity markets, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was described as being at the centre of “one of 2025’s wildest stories,” reflecting a historic silver squeeze driven by structural supply deficits, green‑energy demand and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. TechStock²
In short, the 5–7 December window solidified silver’s breakout above previous highs and confirmed that the market is now trading around a new, much higher base level.
2. Macro backdrop: Fed cuts, a weaker dollar and the commodities “run‑it‑hot” trade
Fed meeting in focus
Silver’s December rally is inseparable from the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 policy meeting:
- Surveys of academic economists and market pricing suggest around an 85% probability of a 25 bps cut, which would be the third consecutive reduction, even as some Fed officials remain sceptical. [13]
- Analysts expect multiple dissents on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), making this one of the most divided meetings in years and reinforcing perceptions that policy risk is high. [14]
Lower policy rates and falling real yields are classic tailwinds for precious metals. The entire 5–7 December period was dominated by:
- A softening US dollar as investors priced in an almost certain cut. [15]
- A global risk‑on mood, with indices like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hovering near record highs as Fed easing hopes propagated across asset classes. TechStock²+1
Commodities as 2026’s “run‑it‑hot” trade
Beyond the immediate Fed story, a recent Bank of America strategy note has flagged commodities as the top “run‑it‑hot” trade for 2026, citing: [16]
- Strong nominal growth and fiscal expansion
- Fragmented globalisation that increases the value of physical assets
- The demands of AI‑driven data‑centre buildouts on metals and energy
The same note observes that gold is up ~60% in 2025, and argues that other commodity charts are likely to follow gold’s bullish trend—a narrative that dovetails neatly with silver’s explosive move.
Together, Fed policy, a weaker dollar and a broader commodity bid created a perfect macro cocktail for silver between 5 and 7 December.
3. Structural supply squeeze: five straight deficits and green‑energy demand
The December price spike is not happening in a vacuum. Multiple datasets and industry reports point to a deep, multi‑year supply imbalance in the silver market:
- The Silver Institute expects 2025 to be the fifth consecutive year of a sizeable market deficit, with total demand outstripping supply despite only modest growth in mine output. [17]
- Commentary based on the Institute’s data pegs the 2025 deficit at roughly 95–120 million ounces, still large even if narrower than recent years. [18]
- In 2024, industrial silver use hit a record ~680.5 million ounces, with solar energy alone accounting for more than 30% of industrial demand. Each photovoltaic panel uses 15–25 grams of silver, and projected annual solar installations could push sectoral demand to around 250 million ounces per year by 2030. [19]
On top of that, recent reports point to the tightest industrial availability on record, with:
- Silver lease rates in London rising to levels last seen in the early 2000s
- Backwardation and elevated spot prices over futures, signalling strong demand for immediate delivery rather than paper exposure [20]
In other words, the “physical squeeze” is real, not just an online meme.
4. ETF inflows, SLV and the “silver disconnection”
ETFs magnifying the move
The 5–7 December window coincides with a surge in investment flows into silver ETFs:
- FXEmpire and other outlets highlight that investors added about 15.7 million ounces to silver ETFs in November, the biggest monthly inflow since mid‑year, with inflows in 9 of the last 11 months. [21]
- Total ETF holdings are now around 1.1–1.13 billion ounces, a record level that amplifies the impact of each wave of investor enthusiasm. [22]
This is mirrored in the performance of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has become a focal point for both institutional and retail investors trying to gain exposure to the rally. Analysts note that SLV is riding a historic squeeze, reflecting demand from:
- Macro funds betting on rate cuts
- Retail investors seeking inflation hedges
- Trend followers reacting to new all‑time highs TechStock²+1
“The silver disconnection”
Not everyone is comfortable with how quickly prices have moved. In a 5 December commentary titled “The Silver Disconnection Is Real,” a Kitco analyst points out that: [23]
- Silver has pushed to new all‑time highs
- Gold and mining stocks, by contrast, reversed intraday, flashing more cautious technical signals
The takeaway is that silver is increasingly decoupling from its usual peers, behaving as a high‑beta vehicle for macro speculation. That can be bullish in the short term—but it also raises the risk of sharp corrections if the narrative changes.
A second Kitco piece, “Gold and silver prices are surging: What’s real (and what isn’t)” from CPM Group, makes a similar point: while fundamentals like deficits and Fed policy are supportive, some of the more extreme narratives—especially around central bank buying—may be overstated, and consolidation phases can end abruptly. [24]
5. Fresh forecasts (5–7 December): base case vs “$100 silver” scenarios
Between 5 and 7 December 2025, several new forecasts and analyses were published that frame how professionals see the next leg for silver commodities.
FXEmpire: bullish, but conditional on Fed cuts
A series of FXEmpire pieces released on 7 December outline a constructive but nuanced view: [25]
- “Silver (XAG) Forecast: Price Prediction Points Higher if Fed Confirms 2026 Rate Cuts”
- Notes that spot silver enters the week around $58.36 after an intraday record near $59.34.
- Argues that the market is “stretched but still bullish”, and that confirmation of two or three Fed cuts in 2026 could fuel the next leg higher.
- “Silver Price Forecast – ETF Inflows and Supply Deficits Set Stage for $100 Surge in 2026”
- Emphasises record highs around $59.33/oz, surging ETF inflows and rising industrial demand.
- Lays out a roadmap where silver could first move toward $62, and—if macro and supply conditions remain supportive—potentially spike toward $100 in an extended bull phase. [26]
- Supporting notes like “Silver Weekly Price Outlook – Silver Continues to See Buyers” and “Silver Price Outlook – Silver Continues to See Support on Friday” stress that dip‑buying behaviour remains strong, with key technical support zones now well above prior cycle highs. [27]
Ouro: high, volatile plateau
An in‑depth “Silver Futures Forecast Report (December 2025)” from the Ouro platform provides a more measured numerical path: [28]
- Their base case projects front‑month silver around $57.5/oz in December 2025, gradually rising to about $65–67/oz by late 2026.
- Rather than a straight line up or a crash, they see a “high, volatile plateau” in which silver trades in an elevated range as the market digests the repricing that has already occurred.
- For hedgers and industrial users, Ouro emphasises that such an environment raises the stakes for procurement timing, hedging duration and capital allocation.
Mainstream banks and research houses
Other institutions and outlets, some published earlier but frequently cited in December coverage, underscore how far consensus expectations have shifted:
- Deutsche Bank, quoted in a recent analysis, now expects silver to average about $55/oz in 2026, up from roughly $38 this year, while projecting ETF holdings around 1.1 billion ounces. [29]
- A compilation of bank forecasts from GoldSilver and other aggregators shows: [30]
- UBS raising its mid‑2026 silver target into the low‑ to mid‑$50s, with upside scenarios toward the high‑$40s.
- Bank of America discussing the possibility of $60–65/oz by 2026, consistent with a commodity “super‑cycle” narrative.
- TD Securities more cautious, flagging a potential pullback into the mid‑$40s in 2026 if the rally overshoots and macro conditions normalise.
- Commentators at Investing News Network and deVere revisit the long‑standing question of whether silver can reach $100/oz, highlighting that while such targets are not consensus, they are now being seriously discussed by prominent bulls. [31]
Bottom line on forecasts:
- Base cases cluster around $55–70/oz by 2026, implying upside from current levels but not a straight line to the moon.
- Bullish tail scenarios—especially those focused on persistent deficits, green‑tech demand and aggressive Fed easing—now explicitly include $100/oz as a possible extreme.
6. How analysts are reading the December signals
Technical and sentiment indicators
Between 5 and 7 December, several technical themes emerged:
- Silver Phoenix 500 points to a long‑term buy signal and an up‑cycle in their proprietary indicator, encouraging investors to accumulate on pullbacks while warning that short‑term signals can flip quickly. [32]
- FXEmpire highlights elevated call‑option skew—bullish options have become more expensive relative to puts—suggesting that speculative positioning is leaning heavily to the upside. [33]
- Several commentators note the gold–silver ratio collapsing from historically high levels, with silver finally “catching up” after years of underperformance, a classic late‑cycle sign in precious‑metal bull markets. [34]
Fundamental caveats
Alongside the bullishness, more cautious voices are emphasising:
- Extreme sensitivity to Fed surprises: If the Fed delivers a smaller‑than‑expected easing path—or signals concern about asset bubbles—silver’s high‑beta status could turn against it. [35]
- Mean‑reversion risk after a 100% yearly gain: The magnitude of the 2025 rally means even a 20–30% pullback would be consistent with past bull markets and not necessarily a structural top. [36]
- Decoupling from miners and gold: The “silver disconnection” flagged by Kitco suggests that if broader risk sentiment turns, miners and gold could drag sentiment down even if physical fundamentals stay tight. [37]
7. Implications for investors, traders and industrial users
For investors and traders
For market participants following silver commodities between 5 and 7 December, a few themes stand out:
- Trend followers see confirmation of a strong uptrend, supported by structural deficits, ETF inflows and a dovish Fed backdrop.
- Macro traders view silver as a leveraged expression of rate‑cut and dollar‑weakness themes, but must manage the risk that Fed communication, inflation surprises or strong jobs data could flip the narrative. [38]
- Risk‑conscious investors will note that while long‑term fundamentals appear supportive, the combination of parabolic price action, frothy options markets and disconnections from miners argues for careful position sizing and diversification rather than all‑in bets. [39]
Important: None of the forecasts cited above guarantee future performance. Silver is a volatile asset; prices can fall sharply as well as rise. Any allocation decision should be based on your own objectives, risk tolerance and (ideally) professional financial advice.
For industrial users and hedgers
For manufacturers in solar, electronics and automotive sectors, the December 5–7 rally carries different implications:
- The Ouro forecast of a “high, volatile plateau” and the Silver Institute’s deficit projections both suggest that “cheap silver” may not return quickly, even if the current spike cools. [40]
- That increases the value of structured hedging programs—for example, laddered hedges or collars that secure supply while still allowing participation in potential price dips.
- Firms highly exposed to silver costs may also consider engineering or design changes that reduce silver loadings, a theme already emerging in parts of the solar and electronics supply chain. [41]
8. The bottom line: December’s rally cements a new regime for silver commodities
From 5–7 December 2025, silver didn’t just notch another set of record highs—it cemented a new regime in which:
- The market is anchored near $58–59/oz, not the $20–30 range that dominated much of the previous decade. [42]
- Structural deficits, green‑tech demand and record ETF holdings are no longer niche talking points; they are the centre of the story. [43]
- The Fed’s December decision and 2026 rate path have become critical catalysts that could extend—or puncture—the current exuberance. [44]
For now, the consensus among many analysts is that the silver commodities market remains in a powerful bull phase, with realistic base‑case targets in the mid‑$50s to high‑$60s over the next 12–18 months, and $100/oz increasingly discussed as an upside scenario rather than pure fantasy. [45]
But with silver already having doubled in 2025, volatility is almost certain to remain high. For anyone involved—whether as an investor, trader or industrial consumer—the events of 5–7 December 2025 are a reminder that silver is no longer a sleepy “poor man’s gold”, but a core, high‑beta player in the global macro story.
References
1. www.jmbullion.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. discoveryalert.com.au, 4. m.economictimes.com, 5. ouro.foundation, 6. m.economictimes.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. tradingeconomics.com, 9. energynews.oedigital.com, 10. www.silver-phoenix500.com, 11. www.silver-phoenix500.com, 12. www.jmbullion.com, 13. www.ft.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. energynews.oedigital.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. silverinstitute.org, 18. discoveryalert.com.au, 19. carboncredits.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. m.economictimes.com, 23. www.kitco.com, 24. www.kitco.com, 25. www.fxempire.com, 26. www.fxempire.com, 27. www.fxempire.com, 28. ouro.foundation, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. goldsilver.com, 31. investingnews.com, 32. www.silver-phoenix500.com, 33. www.fxempire.com, 34. deriv.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. www.kitco.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.kitco.com, 40. ouro.foundation, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. tradingeconomics.com, 43. silverinstitute.org, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. ouro.foundation
