NEW YORK, March 30, 2026, 15:05 EDT
Oil whipped around on Monday. Brent crude popped above $116 a barrel before slipping back, while U.S. crude hovered over $103 as traders tried to gauge the risk from escalating tensions in the Middle East and a new G7 push to stabilize the market. As of 12:36 p.m. ET, Brent was down 0.5% at $112.05, after hitting $116.89 earlier. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, moved up 3.5% to $103.09. Robert Yawger, Mizuho’s director of energy futures, pointed out that any Houthi strike on shipping near the southern Red Sea might tack on another $5 to $10 per barrel.
Brent crude—the world’s reference price for oil—has soared 59% in just this month, marking the steepest monthly climb since the 1990 Gulf War, according to Morgan Stanley. Fed Chair Jerome Powell later said the U.S. central bank could “wait and see” how this conflict-driven energy shock filters through to inflation, pointing to crude’s growing influence beyond just the commodity market. Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz sits right at the heart of the surge—this narrow passage hauls roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas. Now the squeeze is bleeding into physical cargo markets, not just futures. North Sea Forties, a key Brent benchmark, posted its highest-ever premium on Friday. Oil and fuel flows from Europe, Angola, and Nigeria heading to Asia are on track to hit 3.72 million barrels a day in March as buyers scramble for alternatives. “Globally, there are fewer barrels available, so the people who need them are bidding prices up,” said Neil Atkinson, a former head at the International Energy Agency’s oil-markets division. Reuters
Governments scrambled to contain the damage. G7 officials — finance and energy ministers along with central bankers — declared their willingness to take “all necessary measures” for energy-market stability, throwing their support behind the International Energy Agency’s plan to tap 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Reuters
Saudi Arabia has been pushing more crude through routes that bypass Hormuz, but there’s not much slack left. Shipments out of Yanbu, the Red Sea port, climbed to roughly 4.6 million barrels a day last week, with data from Kpler and LSEG putting flows near the site’s ceiling of 5 million barrels a day.
PetroChina is downplaying the impact. Chairman Dai Houliang said roughly 10% of its crude and gas passes through Hormuz, and he’s confident PetroChina can maintain “stable and relatively high operating rates for a long time.” Other producers say they’re able to shoulder some of the disruption, too. Reuters
About 80% of the oil moving through Hormuz ends up in Asia, and the region is already absorbing the shock. South Korea warned that if crude jumps to $120–$130 a barrel, it might extend driving restrictions to all citizens—a move last made during the 1991 Gulf War. Samsung and SK Group have told employees to limit private car trips, as officials throughout Asia prepare for costlier fuel.
The surge in prices has jolted equity markets. In Europe, Shell climbed 2.1% and TotalEnergies added 3.2%. Exxon Mobil picked up 2.1% stateside. Airlines, though, headed lower—both Air France and Lufthansa slipped 1.5% as traders braced for costlier fuel. “Markets are underpricing the prospect that this outbreak of hostilities will not have a speedy conclusion,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at iForex. Reuters
Still, the direction from here depends on whether tensions escalate or settle down. Some ships have started moving through Hormuz again. Kevin Headland, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife Investments, said, “We don’t believe oil is going to remain structurally this high for long.” The IMF, however, pointed out the shock has already darkened the economic outlook for many countries and could box policymakers in with both weaker growth and faster inflation. Reuters
