London, February 28, 2026, 17:48 GMT — Closing bell has sounded.
- Spot silver finished Friday at $92.60 an ounce, climbing 4.8% for the session and on track for a 9.7% gain this February.
- Fresh geopolitical risk is on the table after U.S.-Israel strikes hit Iran over the weekend, just before markets reopen Monday.
- Next up for traders: U.S. payrolls and global PMI surveys, both eyed for signals on the Fed’s path and moves in the dollar.
Silver jumped Friday, trading at $92.60 an ounce, a gain of 4.8% for the session and heading for a 9.7% rally this February. Futures markets showed traders assigning about a 42% probability to a U.S. quarter-point rate cut in June. Gold, meanwhile, stayed steady. “It’s a risk-off in a flight to safety,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Reuters
Markets are quiet for the weekend, but tensions snapped again Saturday: after the U.S. and Israel hit targets in Iran, Tehran fired missiles back toward Israel. Oil industry contacts said some of the big producers and traders paused crude and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent, even if fighting doesn’t spread, could approach $80, Capital Economics’ William Jackson said; if supply stays knocked out, $100 isn’t out of the question. Reuters
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to around 3.96% on Friday, while the dollar index slipped to 97.67, clearing a path for gains in precious metals. Oil prices jumped more than 2% during the session, stoking inflation concerns ahead of weekend news flow. Reuters
Producer prices in the U.S. climbed 0.5% in January, outpacing the 0.3% estimate, while the dollar looked set for its first monthly rise since October. Traders were now betting on around 62 basis points — or 0.62 percentage point — worth of cuts by the end of the year, with expectations that the Fed holds steady through at least June. “There’s a real deep unease in markets about inflation and growth so far in 2026,” Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive, said. Reuters
Silver’s caught in the middle. On one side, it’s sought out as a haven like gold. On the other, industrial buyers need it—so if growth worries flare up, the metal faces pressure from both directions.
Silver, which doesn’t offer any interest, often gets a boost when yields fall. The drop in government bond yields cuts down on the “opportunity cost” of owning metals instead of earning interest elsewhere.
But silver doesn’t hesitate to snap back when trades get crowded. On Jan. 29, the metal surged to an all-time high of $121.64 an ounce, then whipped around hard—leaving it exposed to sharp pullbacks if that weekend risk premium disappears. Reuters
Next week’s economic line-up might make or break Friday’s rally. Early on, markets look toward global PMI releases, then circle back for U.S. payrolls and unemployment numbers as traders rethink their Fed bets. SP Global
Another wild card: the dollar. When the greenback gains, metals can stall—higher prices in other currencies tend to dampen demand, regardless of how jittery risk appetites are.
The U.S. Employment Situation report for February lands March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. That’s the next major catalyst on the docket. bls.gov
