Silver Price Today at 1:38 PM ET (December 22, 2025): XAG/USD Near Record High as Fed-Cut Bets and Geopolitics Fuel a Historic Rally

Silver is extending one of the most dramatic bull runs in modern commodities history, with prices hovering near record territory on Monday, December 22, 2025. Around 1:38 p.m. ET, spot silver (XAG/USD) was trading roughly in the high-$68s per ounce, after pushing to fresh all-time highs earlier in the session. One widely followed retail spot quote showed $68.89/oz at 1:20 p.m. ET, up about 2.1% on the day. ^[1]

The bigger headline: silver has repeatedly printed new records in December and is now riding a powerful mix of rate-cut expectations, a softer U.S. dollar, safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical risk, and a still-tight physical market. Reuters reported spot silver touched a new all-time peak around $69.44/oz on Monday before easing back. ^[2]

Below is what’s moving the silver price today, how analysts are framing the rally, and what the latest forecasts and technical levels suggest for the days ahead.

Silver price today: where XAG/USD is trading and what the market just did

Silver’s intraday action has been volatile but directionally bullish:

Spot silver near 1:38 p.m. ET: fluctuating in the high-$68s, depending on the data provider and whether you’re viewing spot or CFD-style pricing. Retail spot pricing showed $68.89 at 1:20 p.m. ET. ^[3]
Earlier record high: Reuters cited a fresh all-time peak near $69.44/oz. ^[4]
Intraday range: one major pricing page showed a day’s range roughly $67.17 to $69.45, underscoring how fast price discovery is happening at these levels. ^[5]

Silver’s 2025 move is also historically large. Reuters put silver’s year-to-date gain at roughly ~139%, dramatically outpacing gold on a percentage basis. ^[6]

Why silver is surging: the three drivers dominating December 22

1) Rate-cut expectations are back in control

The macro backdrop remains the core engine. Multiple reports describe investors positioning for looser U.S. monetary policy in 2026, a setup that tends to support non-yielding assets like precious metals.

Reuters said expectations of easier policy and a weaker dollar have been central to the late-year precious metals surge, with traders reacting to recent U.S. inflation and labor data that reinforced rate-cut bets. ^[7]

Business Insider similarly tied the record push in gold and silver to renewed market confidence that rates will trend lower into 2026, increasing the appeal of hard assets versus cash and bonds. ^[8]

2) Geopolitical risk is amplifying safe-haven demand

Today’s rally isn’t only macro—it’s also risk hedging. Reuters highlighted rising safe-haven flows as U.S.-Venezuela tensions escalated following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “blockade” targeting sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela. ^[9]

On top of that, FXStreet framed silver’s jump as part of a broader flight to safety amid renewed tension in the Middle East, noting Israel–Iran headlines as a catalyst during the Asian session. ^[10]

3) Silver’s “dual identity” is attracting both hedgers and growth traders

Silver is behaving like a hybrid: part safe haven, part industrial metal. Reuters has repeatedly emphasized the market’s focus on a persistent supply-demand deficit, while also pointing to investment flows. ^[11]

Business Insider added another layer: silver (along with copper) is being treated as an “AI and electrification” metal because of its role in data infrastructure and electrification, at a time when supply pressures remain a theme. ^[12]

The “record rally” narrative: what today’s reporting is telling investors

A major reason silver’s move is commanding attention is that it’s arriving late in the year—when markets often get thin and profit-taking typically increases.

Reuters quoted analysts observing that investors have not treated the year-end period as a time to step away from the trade, with strong demand pushing prices to records anyway. ^[13]

That said, several analysts are also warning that silver’s volatility cuts both ways. Reuters has flagged the risk of steep corrections even in a structurally bullish market, simply because silver historically moves faster than gold in both directions. ^[14]

Silver vs gold: the gold–silver ratio is flashing “silver strength”

A key metric confirming silver’s outperformance is the gold–silver ratio (how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold).

Reuters reported the ratio has narrowed to roughly 64, down sharply from about 105 in April, reflecting how aggressively silver has caught up—and, recently, outpaced. ^[15]
FXStreet also pegged the ratio near 64.06 on Monday. ^[16]

In plain terms: silver isn’t just rising because gold is rising—silver is rising faster.

Forecasts and outlook: what analysts are projecting next

Forecasts for silver are widening—bulls point to structural deficits and macro tailwinds, while cautious houses warn that the pace of gains looks unsustainable in a straight line.

A notable 2026 forecast: Macquarie’s average price view

In Reuters’ Dec. 22 coverage, Macquarie strategists said drivers behind silver’s recent highs include the persistent deficit and stronger import demand in India during the festive period—and they expect silver to average $57 per ounce in 2026. ^[17]

That forecast matters because it implies meaningful downside from today’s near-$69–$70 neighborhood, even while acknowledging supportive fundamentals.

The “if gold cools, silver cools” camp

CBS News cited Capital Economics projecting gold could fall to $3,500 by the end of next year, arguing that a cooling in gold’s speculative boom would likely spill into silver as well. ^[18]

The “bigger precious-metals cycle” camp

CBS also quoted Global X ETFs’ Trevor Yates describing the latest leg of the rally as being driven by a 2026 outlook featuring lower rates and a potentially softer dollar, adding that the firm remains constructive on both gold and silver (while acknowledging the path won’t be smooth). ^[19]

Bottom line on forecasts today: even among bullish narratives, there’s a growing emphasis on volatility and the risk that silver can overshoot before it mean-reverts.

Technical analysis: key levels traders are watching on Dec. 22

Technical analysts are largely aligned that the trend remains bullish—but momentum indicators are stretched.

FXStreet’s technical forecast described silver as extending a well-established uptrend and printing fresh records around the $69.45 area during the Asian session. It also highlighted that last week’s breakout through $66.40–$66.50 was an important trigger level, while warning that overbought RSI readings argue for caution when chasing breakouts. ^[20]

A separate market write-up echoed that bullish bias, pointing to silver holding above its 100-hour moving average and showing strengthening momentum signals. ^[21]

What this means in practice:

Bulls are focused on whether silver can hold above former breakout zones on pullbacks.
Bears (or cautious longs) are watching for signs of exhaustion as overbought conditions persist.

The India angle: local silver prices also hit records

The rally is not just a U.S. dollar story. In India, Times of India reported silver futures surged to a record ₹2,14,534 per kilogram on MCX as the global rally spilled over into domestic markets. ^[22]

This matters because India can be a major swing factor in physical demand—especially during periods of strong seasonal buying.

What to watch next: the catalysts that could move silver from here

Silver is now trading in a zone where headlines can move price quickly, because positioning is heavy and liquidity can be thinner near year-end. The market’s next moves are likely to hinge on:

Fed path signals for 2026: any shift in how quickly markets expect rate cuts can reprice precious metals. ^[23]
U.S. dollar direction: Reuters noted the dollar’s weakness has been part of the broader support for bullion. ^[24]
Geopolitical developments: today’s rally has been tightly linked to elevated geopolitical tension, which tends to boost safe-haven demand. ^[25]
Physical market tightness and investment flows: persistent deficit narratives and investment buying have been central to silver’s outperformance in 2025. ^[26]

Takeaway: silver is still bullish—but the market is pricing in turbulence

As of early afternoon on December 22, 2025, silver remains near record levels, supported by a powerful combination of macro tailwinds, geopolitical risk hedging, and tightness themes in the physical market. ^[27]

But today’s coverage also makes one point increasingly clear: the higher silver goes, the more the market is bracing for sharp swings—especially with technical signals stretched and forecasts for 2026 diverging widely. ^[28]