Silver is trading just under $58 per troy ounce on Monday, December 8, 2025, consolidating below last week’s record highs near $59 after one of the strongest rallies in its modern history. Spot XAG/USD is hovering around $58.1–$58.5, with today’s range roughly $57.6 to $58.7 and a 52‑week band of $28.2 to $59.3, keeping the metal within touching distance of its all‑time high. [1]
Depending on the data provider, silver is now up around 100% year‑to‑date, far outpacing gold’s roughly 60% gain and marking its best performance since the late 1970s. [2] The gold/silver ratio has fallen back to about 70–72, its lowest level of 2025, underscoring how aggressively investors have rotated into the “white metal.” [3]
With the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting now in focus and markets pricing in a high probability of a rate cut, price action has turned sideways rather than parabolic. But under the surface, ETF inflows, persistent supply deficits and a structurally tight physical market are keeping the bullish narrative very much alive. [4]
Silver price today: consolidation just below $60
Several real‑time and end‑of‑day feeds give a consistent snapshot of silver’s current position:
- Spot XAG/USD on major FX platforms is trading around $58.15, down slightly (about 0.2–0.3%) on the day. [5]
- Today’s intraday range has been roughly $57.59–$58.74, indicating a calm session compared with the explosive moves seen in November. [6]
- FXStreet’s morning update pegged silver at $58.47 per ounce, up 0.16% from Friday and up 102% since the start of 2025 on their data. [7]
- Physical retail prices are even higher: one bullion dealer reports $1,915.59 per kilogram (roughly the high‑$50s per ounce), almost +97% year‑to‑date. [8]
In other words, today isn’t a crash or a fresh vertical spike – it’s a breather near the top of an historic move.
Last week, silver:
- Broke to a record high above $58 and “doubled over the past 11 months,” making 2025 its strongest year since 1979, according to TradingView News. [9]
- Hit a fresh peak around $59.3, helping push the gold/silver ratio below 72 and lifting silver into clear technical breakout territory. [10]
Today’s sideways trade reflects consolidation just under the psychological $60 level, with bulls trying to build a new base rather than chase yet another blow‑off spike.
What is driving silver on December 8, 2025?
1. Fed rate‑cut expectations and macro data
The biggest near‑term catalyst is Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Multiple analysts note that:
- Futures markets now see around an 80–85% chance of a 25 bp Fed rate cut at this meeting, after softer US jobs data and delayed macro releases. [11]
- US core PCE inflation is running at about 0.2% month‑on‑month and 2.8% year‑on‑year, slightly below expectations – reinforcing the view that the Fed can start easing without “losing” the inflation fight. [12]
- Lower real yields and a weaker dollar are classically supportive for precious metals, and silver – with higher volatility and “beta” than gold – has been the prime beneficiary. [13]
Research from Capital.com notes that silver’s latest leg higher has been driven by falling US yields, a softening dollar and growing conviction that the Fed is “moving closer to a rate cut”, while also warning that the move has pushed positioning toward overbought territory. [14]
Broadly, macro traders view this week as a binary event:
- A dovish Fed (cut + soft guidance) likely supports another push towards and potentially through $60.
- A hawkish surprise (no cut or firmer inflation message) could trigger a sharp but potentially short‑lived correction as overextended longs de‑risk. [15]
2. Industrial demand, green energy and structural supply deficits
If 2010–2020 was about silver as “cheap gold,” 2025 is definitely about silver as a critical industrial metal.
Recent reports highlight that:
- Industrial uses now account for more than half of global silver demand, led by solar photovoltaics, electronics and automotive applications. [16]
- One analysis estimates that solar alone uses roughly 16% of global silver demand, while electric vehicles consume about 2.9%, and these segments have been growing in double digits annually. [17]
- The silver market has been in deficit for five consecutive years, with mined output down around 3% in 2025 due to lower ore grades and a lack of new projects. [18]
ING’s 2026 outlook describes this year as a “historic squeeze”, with:
- US tariff uncertainty pulling metal from London to US exchanges.
- COMEX futures trading at a persistent premium to London spot.
- Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange falling to their lowest levels in nearly a decade as silver was shipped out to relieve pressure elsewhere. [19]
Even after a record inflow of silver into London, lease rates in the key London market remain elevated around 6%, a sign that physical metal is still not abundant. [20]
A separate analysis from FXEmpire ties today’s tightness to:
- Five straight years of supply deficit.
- Heavy ETF inflows (nearly 16 million ounces in November alone).
- Projected growth in the solar power market to nearly half a trillion dollars by the mid‑2030s, implying substantially higher silver usage. [21]
Taken together, these factors frame today’s modest pullback as “consolidation in a tight market” rather than a sign that the underlying fundamentals have weakened.
3. Market positioning, ETFs and the “short squeeze” debate
With volatility elevated and physical balances tight, it’s no surprise that talk of a silver short squeeze is everywhere.
Two major perspectives emerged today:
- Discovery Alert (Dec 8) argues that the market is in a phase of “tightness, not a full short squeeze”, despite estimates of more than 300 paper claims for every deliverable ounce. They note that:
- Price rises have been strong but orderly, averaging about $2 per week, not the vertical spikes associated with true squeezes.
- Lease rates, while elevated, are nowhere near the 200%+ levels seen in historic squeeze episodes.
- Short sellers still appear able to roll positions rather than being forced into disorderly liquidation. [22]
- ING, in contrast, describes 2025 as a “historic short squeeze” in structural terms, pointing to:
- COMEX trading persistently above London prices.
- Record Chinese exports (over 660 tonnes in October) to alleviate London shortages.
- Ongoing tight inventories despite large flows of metal. [23]
The truth is likely somewhere in between: clearly tight, structurally stressed, but not yet in a full‑blown crisis where shorts have no exit. For traders and investors, that means elevated volatility remains the base case going into 2026.
Fresh forecasts and price targets for silver
1. Banks and institutions
Institutional price targets have struggled to keep up with the speed of the rally:
- In October, HSBC lifted its average 2025 silver forecast to $38.56/oz (from $35.14), and projected:
- A $45–$53 trading range for the rest of 2025.
- An average of $44.50 in 2026 and $40 in 2027, in a broad $40–$55 band next year. [24]
Those numbers already sit well below today’s $58–59 spot price, illustrating how quickly reality outran mainstream expectations.
- ING’s December 8 outlook is more aggressive: it expects silver to remain well supported into 2026, with an average price around $55/oz, underpinned by:
- Ongoing supply deficits.
- A softer dollar and Fed rate cuts.
- Continued, though potentially moderating, industrial demand from solar and EVs. [25]
2. Technical and macro‑thematic forecasts
More market‑oriented and technical analyses sketch out a wide but generally bullish range of scenarios:
- FXEmpire highlights a breakout from a two‑year ascending channel after silver hit a record $59.33 last week. Their base case:
- Short‑term target around $62.
- A “pathway” toward $100 in an extended move into 2026 if the breakout holds and deficits persist. [26]
- A long‑term study on TradingView/InvestingLive sees:
- The multi‑year uptrend still intact, with no clear signs of distribution.
- A potential “magnet” area near $77 on the weekly chart, implying about 30% upside from current levels.
- Key structural support around $52.50, and a “line in the sand” for bulls near $57.75. [27]
- GoldSilver.com aggregates major bank and research‑house forecasts and notes:
- UBS looking for around $55/oz by mid‑2026.
- Bank of America near $65/oz by 2026.
- Long‑term niche forecasts ranging from $77–82/oz by 2030 (InvestingHaven) to highly bullish scenarios above $130–$200 from some speculative models. [28]
Most of these sources agree on two points:
- Short‑term corrections are highly likely after such a steep run.
- The multi‑year trend still leans bullish, as long as prices stay somewhere above the mid‑$40s to low‑$50s.
Key technical levels to watch this week
Today’s analysis from active trading desks converges around a cluster of important levels:
- Immediate resistance: $58.80–$59.30
- First support: $57.5–$56.4
- In today’s Asian trading, silver dipped to about $57.55 before bouncing off the 100‑period EMA on the 1‑hour chart – now a widely watched intraday support zone. [31]
- Economies.com emphasises that silver remains above its 50‑period moving average, reinforcing the short‑term bullish trend as long as pullbacks hold above that dynamic support. [32]
- Deeper support: $53–$51
- An earlier October technical study from The Economic Times highlighted $53 as a key psychological and moving‑average support, with stronger backing in the $51–$51.20 zone. [33]
- Those levels now sit well below price, but they remain important “reset zones” if a sharper correction unfolds after the Fed.
- Long‑term structure: $52.5 and $77
- TradingView’s long‑term futures analysis points to $52.50 as a major support area and a potential long‑term target near $77 if the current uptrend persists. [34]
From a pure technical standpoint, silver remains in a bullish structure while trading:
- Above the low‑$50s on higher‑timeframe charts, and
- Above roughly $57–$58 on a shorter‑term basis into the Fed meeting. [35]
What today’s silver price means for different market participants
This section is informational and not financial advice. Always consider your own circumstances or consult a regulated adviser.
Short‑term traders
For active traders, today’s sideways action is a classic “coiling” setup:
- Momentum remains positive, but indicators like RSI on several platforms are overbought or cooling, flagging the risk of sharp, news‑driven reversals. [36]
- Options markets show elevated call premiums and implied volatility, consistent with the idea that big moves – up or down – are still on the table. [37]
Heading into Wednesday:
- Bulls are watching for a decisive break and hold above $59–60 as confirmation of the next leg higher.
- Bears (or profit‑takers) are eyeing failure at resistance plus a break of short‑term support (around $57.5) as a signal that a deeper pullback is underway.
Long‑term investors and hedgers
For longer‑horizon investors, today’s price sits at the intersection of “expensive vs history” and “potentially early in a new regime”:
- Compared with January 2020, some data shows silver up more than 200%, underscoring how far the market has already moved. [38]
- Yet several multi‑year forecasts still see room for upside or extended consolidation in the $50–70 band, especially if renewable‑energy and EV demand keep growing and deficits persist. [39]
Many institutional commentaries now frame silver less as a short‑term inflation trade and more as a strategic asset at the crossroads of monetary and industrial themes.
Industrial users and manufacturers
For manufacturers in solar, electronics and EVs, today’s near‑record price is a double‑edged sword:
- It increases input costs and could eventually force thrifting, substitution or redesign if high prices persist.
- But it also incentivises more recycling and more efficient use, which may partially offset primary supply constraints over time. [40]
Risk managers in these industries are now dealing with a metal that behaves more like a growth‑linked strategic material than a boring by‑product, which may argue for more sophisticated hedging and procurement strategies.
Risks that could derail the silver rally
Even in an overwhelmingly bullish narrative, analysts stress several key risks:
- Hawkish Fed or sticky inflation
A surprise in US inflation data or a more aggressive Fed stance could push real yields higher and the dollar stronger, pressuring silver and potentially forcing a flush of leveraged longs. [41] - Industrial slowdown & demand destruction
ING warns that a sharper‑than‑expected global slowdown – particularly in electronics or manufacturing – could undercut industrial demand just as prices are testing record levels, raising the risk of demand destruction. [42] - Tariffs and policy shocks
Silver’s inclusion on the US Geological Survey’s list of critical minerals raises the possibility of US import tariffs or trade restrictions, which could distort flows and create regional price dislocations or policy‑driven volatility. [43] - Positioning wash‑out after a parabolic move
With call skew elevated, ETF inflows strong and technicals extended, a bout of profit‑taking or deleveraging could drive a fast $5–10 pullback without necessarily breaking the long‑term uptrend. [44]
Bottom line: silver stays in the spotlight ahead of the Fed
On December 8, 2025, the silver price story is not about direction as much as positioning:
- Price: around $58/oz, just under all‑time highs. [45]
- Trend: up nearly 100% year‑to‑date, still outperforming gold and most major assets. [46]
- Drivers: a rare combination of rate‑cut expectations, structural deficits, green‑tech demand and tight physical inventories, layered on top of speculative inflows. [47]
Whether the next big move is a clean breakout above $60 or a sharp shakeout into the low‑$50s will likely be decided by:
- The Fed’s message on December 10.
- Incoming data on growth and inflation.
- How aggressively traders respond to any surprise.
For now, silver remains front‑and‑centre on macro and commodity desks, and today’s calm near record highs looks more like the eye of the storm than the end of the story.
References
1. www.fxstreet.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.fxstreet.com, 4. www.fxempire.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.fxstreet.com, 8. strategicmetalsinvest.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.fxempire.com, 11. www.fxempire.com, 12. tradersunion.com, 13. www.fxempire.com, 14. capital.com, 15. www.fxempire.com, 16. think.ing.com, 17. strategicmetalsinvest.com, 18. think.ing.com, 19. think.ing.com, 20. think.ing.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. discoveryalert.com.au, 23. think.ing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. think.ing.com, 26. www.fxempire.com, 27. www.tradingview.com, 28. goldsilver.com, 29. www.economies.com, 30. tradersunion.com, 31. tradersunion.com, 32. www.economies.com, 33. m.economictimes.com, 34. www.tradingview.com, 35. www.tradingview.com, 36. capital.com, 37. www.fxempire.com, 38. strategicmetalsinvest.com, 39. think.ing.com, 40. strategicmetalsinvest.com, 41. www.fxempire.com, 42. think.ing.com, 43. think.ing.com, 44. www.fxempire.com, 45. www.fxstreet.com, 46. www.tradingview.com, 47. www.fxempire.com
