NEW YORK, Jan 2, 2026, 16:46 ET — After-hours
- SLV was up 2.1% in after-hours trade, tracking gains in spot silver.
- Spot silver rose 1.7% as traders weighed Fed rate-cut expectations against a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields.
- Investors are watching next week’s U.S. jobs and inflation data for clues on March rate-cut odds.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV), a widely traded proxy for the metal, was up 2.1% at $65.75 in after-hours trade on Friday. Spot silver rose 1.7% to $72.45 an ounce during the U.S. session, Reuters reported, even as the dollar index firmed and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.195%.
The move matters because silver has become an early barometer for how investors are positioning for U.S. rates and risk in 2026. When bond yields and the dollar rise, precious metals can face headwinds because they do not pay interest and are priced in dollars.
Markets are pricing at least two quarter-point Federal Reserve cuts this year, a backdrop that can support silver, which offers no yield. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said talk of a March cut, tariff risks and U.S. debt were “moving gold, silver, platinum, and palladium higher.” Silver hit a record $83.62 on Monday and rose more than 147% in 2025 on tight supply and its U.S. designation as a critical mineral, Reuters said. Reuters
Silver-linked equities were mixed in late trading. Pan American Silver was down 1.5%, Hecla Mining fell 1.6% and First Majestic Silver dropped 3.5%, after a volatile regular session for miners.
Mining shares often amplify moves in the underlying metal, but they can diverge when equity risk appetite shifts or when investors focus on company-specific factors such as costs, output and geopolitical exposure. After a year of triple-digit gains in spot silver, profit-taking pressure can also show up first in miners.
The next test is the U.S. data calendar, which is returning to a fuller cadence after holiday disruptions. The monthly jobs report is due on Jan. 9 and the consumer price index is scheduled for Jan. 13, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting later in January. Fed funds futures show little chance of a cut at that meeting and nearly a 50% probability of a quarter-point reduction in March, Reuters reported.
For silver, the direction of rate expectations is central. Stronger jobs growth or stickier inflation would likely push yields higher and keep the dollar supported, a combination that can cool demand for precious metals.
A weaker set of numbers would have the opposite effect, reinforcing the case for easier policy and underpinning demand for hedges. That dynamic can be especially pronounced in silver, which trades as both a haven and an economically sensitive industrial input.
For stock investors, SLV is often the cleanest way to track the metal because the fund is backed by physical bullion and typically follows spot prices. Miners can offer more leverage to a rising silver price, but they also bring equity-market volatility and operational risks.
Some analysts have also flagged signs of overheating after last year’s surge. Ned Davis Research pointed to stretched momentum and speculative flows into leveraged silver ETFs as warning signs, even as industrial demand — including from solar — remains a structural support, Barron’s reported.
Near-term, traders are watching whether silver can hold above the $70 area, a key psychological level after this week’s swings. A push back toward recent highs would likely depend on a clear shift toward lower U.S. rates or a renewed jump in safe-haven demand.
Until next week’s data hits, silver’s tone is likely to stay tethered to the same three inputs: Fed-cut expectations, the dollar and geopolitics. For SLV holders, that means watching yields as closely as the metal itself.
