New York, Feb 15, 2026, 12:09 EST — Market closed
- Spot silver climbed 3.4% Friday, helped by a softer U.S. inflation reading. The move trimmed losses for the week.
- After a steep drop on Thursday—blamed on a strong jobs report and quick stop-selling—the metal is now pulling back.
- The Fed’s minutes land Feb. 18, with U.S. GDP and PCE inflation figures set to drop on Feb. 20—those are the next catalysts.
After a wild stretch, silver bounced back Friday, jumping 3.4% to $77.70 an ounce as softer U.S. inflation numbers reignited talk of Fed rate cuts. Still, the metal was heading for a slight 0.3% loss on the week. LSEG data pinned the odds at around 63 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with markets leaning toward July for the first move. “Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally after a mild January CPI reading eased nerves,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Reuters
This matters right now: silver generally shadows changes in rate bets and the U.S. dollar. Traders anticipating lower policy rates? That usually lifts the metal, since silver doesn’t pay interest—so holding it gets cheaper compared to cash.
On Thursday, silver tumbled 8.9% to $76.54 an ounce after robust U.S. labor numbers forced traders to re-evaluate expectations for rate cuts. The selloff accelerated as stop-loss orders kicked in, adding fuel to the drop. “Those stops have been triggered… and that caused a cascading-like effect,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. Reuters
Friday’s bounce came after the U.S. Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ticked up 0.2% in January, seasonally adjusted. Over the last year, the all-items index climbed 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. Stripping out food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 2.5% year-over-year.
The labor market fired off an early signal: Total nonfarm payroll employment climbed by 130,000 in January, while the unemployment rate stayed put at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This year, silver’s price swings have outpaced gold’s, thanks to its split personality: it’s both an investment asset and a key industrial metal for electronics, EVs, and solar. The Silver Institute, in its latest outlook, expects worldwide silver demand will remain roughly flat going into 2026. The group also pointed out a record price tag—$121.60—logged on Jan. 29 after a surge of retail interest.
The downside’s straightforward. Should next week’s data or the Fed minutes come in more hawkish than traders anticipate, rate-cut bets could unravel fast — silver usually magnifies those swings. And with holiday-thinned liquidity, things could get even choppier.
Wednesday brings the first big test for investors. The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its Jan. 27-28 meeting land at 2:00 p.m. ET on Feb. 18. Markets in the U.S. will be shut Monday for Washington’s Birthday.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to drop its advance read on fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP, as well as the Personal Income and Outlays numbers—including the PCE inflation measure—at 8:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 20.
Silver traders are watching for the Fed minutes set for Feb. 18—a fresh trigger on the horizon. Then, attention shifts to Feb. 20 with GDP and PCE data due Friday, numbers that could settle whether the CPI-fueled rally keeps going through month-end.
