SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ: SNDL) is in focus on Friday, December 12, 2025 , after cannabis stocks broadly moved higher on fresh reporting that the Trump administration could pursue a major shift in US federal marijuana policy—an ongoing catalyst that can rapidly change sentiment (and volatility) across the entire sector. [1]
Below is a full, publication-ready breakdown of today’s key headlines , what they could mean for SNDL stock , plus the latest Wall Street price targets , recent company fundamentals, and the next major dates to watch.
Why SNDL Stock Is Moving Today: Trump Marijuana Rescheduling Reports
Multiple outlets reported that President Donald Trump is expected to push the federal government to loosen restrictions on marijuana , including a potential push to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III —a change that would represent one of the biggest federal policy shifts on marijuana in decades. [2]
In market terms, that headline immediately reads up the group. Reuters reported sharp premarket gains across major cannabis names, including SNDL. [3]
What the reporting says (and what it doesn’t)
- Washington Post (Dec. 11, 2025): Trump is expected to seek an executive order directing agencies toward reclassification ; the report says the move would not legalize or decriminalize marijuana , but could reduce barriers to research and boost legal operators’ economics. The story also emphasizes that no final decision has been made . [4]
- Reuters (Dec. 12, 2025): Cannabis stocks jumped after the Post report; it also highlighted analyst commentary that Schedule III could expand pathways for pharmaceutical approvals and pointed to the sector’s persistent financing constraints under federal restrictions. [5]
- Axios (Dec. 12, 2025): Axios similarly reported Trump is likely to loosen federal restrictions “early next year,” citing potential tax and research implications—while again noting the White House said no final decision had been made. [6]
- Investing.com (Dec. 12, 2025): Reported SNDL among notable movers and reiterated that a White House official said no final decisions had been made. [7]
Bottom line for readers: today’s move is being driven primarily by policy expectations , not a new SNDL earnings release or corporate event this morning. That matters because policy-driven rallies can reverse quickly if timelines slip, details disappoint, or the process becomes bogged down in administrative steps.
Why Schedule III Matters: Taxes, Banking, and the “It’s Not Legalization” Reality
“Schedule III” has become one of the most market-moving phrases in cannabis investing because it can change the industry’s economics— even without full legalization .
Reuters previously detailed several of the most important potential effects of reclassification, including:
- Tax relief via IRS 280E: one of the biggest impacts could be that cannabis firms would no longer be subject to Section 280E , which blocks many standard business deductions for Schedule I/II substances. [8]
- Financing and institutional participation: reclassification is widely seen as a step that could improve access to capital and investor participation, even though banking reform is a separate policy track. [9]
- Still not federal legalization: even under Schedule III, marijuana can remain federally illegal in key ways, and market structure constraints can persist. Reuters noted that some analysts argue reclassification may not change fundamentals like interstate trade restrictions or the state-by-state “silo” system. [10]
This is the tension investors should keep front and center: Schedule III can be a meaningful improvement , but it is not the same as a nationwide “green light.”
What SNDL Actually Does: Canada-First Operations With Multiple Business Lines
SNDL is often traded by US investors as a “marijuana stock,” but operationally it’s better understood as a diversified Canadian cannabis and retail business .
Reuters’ company profile describes SNDL as a vertically integrated cannabis company and a private-sector liquor and cannabis retailer in Canada , with retail banners that include Ace Liquor, Wine and Beyond, Liquor Depot, Value Buds, and Spiritleaf , plus a portfolio of cannabis brands. [11]
That Canada-first footprint helps explain why US policy news can still move SNDL sharply: even if the direct operational impact is not immediate, US reform headlines can materially affect:
- sector-wide investor risk appetite,
- valuations across cannabis equities,
- capital market expectations and strategic optionality.
SNDL itself has also discussed evaluating its US exposure . In its Q1 2025 results, the company said its board initiated a strategic review to evaluate exposure to US multi-state licensed cannabis enterprises and its exchange listing status. [12]
SNDL’s Latest Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Results and Key Operating Signals
While today’s catalyst is macro/policy-driven, SNDL’s most recent reported quarter still sets the baseline for how investors judge execution.
In its Q3 2025 financial and operational results (for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), SNDL reported:
- Net revenue of CAD $244.2 million and gross profit of CAD $64.2 million . [13]
- Record free cash flow of CAD $16.7 million in the quarter. [14]
- Segment details showing how diversified the business is, including liquor retail and cannabis operations. [15]
A few operational datapoints investors often highlight from that release:
- SNDL said it was Canada’s largest private-sector liquor retailer, operating 165 locations (as of Nov. 3, 2025), predominantly in Alberta. [16]
- Cannabis operations net revenue rose to CAD $37.389 million in Q3 2025 (up significantly year over year in the company’s segment table), and the company cited growth drivers including edibles and international sales (including CAD $4.2 million in international sales during the quarter). [17]
For SNDL stock, this mix matters: it can dampen volatility relative to single-line cannabis producers—yet the ticker can still trade like a high-beta cannabis sentiment vehicle when US reform headlines hit.
Capital Returns: SNDL Share Repurchase Program (Buyback) Is Active Through 2026
One company-specific support factor investors continue to watch is SNDL’s buyback authorization.
In a Nov. 21, 2025 release, SNDL announced it received approval from the Canadian Securities Exchange to renew its share repurchase program , authorizing repurchases of up to C$100 million of common shares. The company stated:
- the renewed program can repurchase up to ~24.5 million shares (subject to limits), representing 10% of the public float at commencement, and
- it runs from Nov. 21, 2025 to Nov. 20, 2026 . [18]
SNDL also disclosed that under the prior program (Nov. 21, 2024 to Nov. 20, 2025) it repurchased 9,478,671 shares . [19]
Buybacks don’t prevent drawdowns in risk-off markets, but they can matter in a small-cap name when liquidity thins out—especially around high-volatility news cycles like today’s.
SNDL Stock Forecast: Analyst Price Targets and Ratings (As of Dec. 12, 2025)
Analyst coverage on SNDL remains limited , and that’s important for readers to understand: with only a small number of published ratings, “consensus” targets can swing dramatically with a single update.
Here are several widely followed aggregations:
- MarketBeat: consensus rating listed as Hold , based on 2 analyst ratings , with an average price target of $4.50 (range $4.00 to $5.00 ). [20]
- MarketWatch: shows 2 ratings and lists an average target price of $6.64 (and an “Average Recommendation” shown as Buy). [21]
- Fintel: lists an average one-year price target of $5.71 , with a range shown from $5.05 to $6.51 . [22]
- StockAnalysis: shows 1 analyst with a $5.00 price target and “Strong Buy” consensus (reflecting the single-analyst dataset used on that page). [23]
How to interpret these targets
Price targets are not guarantees , and for SNDL they are especially sensitive to:
- US reform timelines (like today’s Schedule III headlines),
- financing conditions for the broader cannabis sector,
- whether SNDL’s strategy leans more aggressively into US optionality or stays Canada-centered.
Positioning Check: Short Interest Remains Relatively Modest
In meme-adjacent tickers, investors often look at short interest to understand squeeze risk. MarketBeat’s latest snapshot shows:
- short interest of about 1.62 million shares , around 0.62% of public float , and
- days to cover ~0.8 (based on average volume). [24]
That’s not the profile of an extreme short-squeeze setup by itself—though sharp sector headlines can still create fast, crowded price action in either direction.
Technical and Trading Context: Why Today’s Gap Can Be Tricky
Today’s move is a reminder that cannabis stocks can trade more on headlines and probability than on quarter-to-quarter fundamentals.
Several market reports described SNDL as one of the stronger premarket movers after the rescheduling headlines, though the magnitude varied by timestamp and outlet (common in fast premarket trading). [25]
For context, Investing.com listed SNDL with a 52-week range spanning roughly $1.15 to $2.89 —a wide band that underscores how quickly volatility can expand when reform odds appear to change. [26]
If you’re tracking SNDL day-to-day, the practical takeaway is that price can rotate quickly between:
- “policy optimism” (reform probabilities rising), and
- “process reality” (timelines, administrative hurdles, lack of final decisions).
Key Risks to Know (Especially After Today’s Headline)
Even for bullish investors, the highest-impact risks are straightforward:
- No final decision / headline fragility. Multiple reports stress that decisions are not final and plans can change. [27]
- Rescheduling ≠ legalization. The policy shift being discussed would not automatically legalize or decriminalize marijuana at the federal level. [28]
- Industry constraints may persist even with Schedule III. Reuters has noted that some analysts argue major limitations (like state-by-state market silos and interstate restrictions) can remain even after reclassification. [29]
- Small-cap volatility. SNDL can move sharply on sector flows, regardless of whether the catalyst directly changes near-term Canadian operating results. [30]
What to Watch Next: The Dates and Signals That Could Move SNDL Again
If you’re following SNDL stock into year-end and early 2026, the most market-moving “next steps” are likely to be:
- Confirmation of intent (formal administration direction vs. continued media-level trial balloons). [31]
- Agency process details (how quickly a Schedule III move could be implemented, and whether administrative steps are accelerated). [32]
- Next earnings catalyst: Public.com lists SNDL’s next earnings as expected around March 17, 2026 , with an EPS estimate shown on that page. [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.washingtonpost.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.washingtonpost.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.axios.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. sndl.com, 14. sndl.com, 15. sndl.com, 16. sndl.com, 17. sndl.com, 18. sndl.com, 19. sndl.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. fintel.io, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.washingtonpost.com, 28. www.washingtonpost.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.washingtonpost.com, 32. www.washingtonpost.com, 33. public.com
