Washington, June 14, 2026, 10:13 (ET)
- Social Security’s 2027 COLA could come in anywhere from 3.8% to 4.7%, based on early estimates. The exact increase hinges on this year’s inflation numbers, according to .
- Democrats have pitched two different $200-per-month benefit hikes—one set to be temporary, the other permanent.
- The official COLA tracks CPI-W, which climbed 4.4% in May from a year ago.
Social Security beneficiaries are seeing stronger inflation at a time when early estimates for next year’s cost-of-living bump are creeping up. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, the figure that drives Social Security and SSI benefit hikes, was up 4.4% over the year in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
The Senior Citizens League is now calling for a 3.8% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in 2027, higher than the 2.8% bump beneficiaries get for 2026. Another forecast from independent analyst Mary Johnson sees a 4.7% hike for 2027. That would add close to $98 a month for the average retired worker, if her estimate proves right.
COLA for 2027 isn’t set in June. The Social Security Administration bases the yearly adjustment on the CPI-W, and its 2026 fact sheet shows the formula uses third-quarter inflation data—July, August, September—compared to a year ago. The official figure comes in October.
A bigger COLA boosts monthly payments, but it also means retirees have been hit with higher prices. The BLS said the CPI-U climbed 4.2% in May from a year ago, with energy up 23.5% and gasoline jumping 40.5%. Those increases can squeeze households on fixed incomes well before the next COLA kicks in come January.
Lawmakers are looking at boosting benefits beyond the standard COLA hike. Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s office said her Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act would add $200 a month to Social Security benefits as an emergency increase until July 2026. The bill would also help people on SSI, Railroad Retirement, veteran disability payments, and veteran pensions.
The Social Security Expansion Act, supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders and others, aims to boost Social Security payments by $2,400 a year, hit income above $250,000 with Social Security payroll taxes, and tie cost-of-living adjustments to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly. A fact sheet from Sanders says the proposal would keep Social Security solvent for 75 years.
Social Security’s finances are in focus again as the program faces long-term stress. The Social Security Board of Trustees said the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is set to run out of reserves in the last quarter of 2032, at which point incoming revenue would pay just 78% of promised benefits. If you combine OASI and Disability Insurance reserves, those are expected to stay solvent until 2034, with only 83% of scheduled benefits covered after that unless Congress changes the rules.
