NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 08:05 EDT — U.S. cash market activity before the open.
Mary Johnson lowered her projected 2027 COLA to 3.7%, down from the earlier 4.7%.
Leading predictions currently span from 3.6% by AARP to 3.8% from TSCL.
July inflation figures will be released on August 12, with the final COLA announcement set for October 14.
An independent projection for the 2027 Social Security COLA has dropped by one percentage point, decreasing the calculated annual benefit rise by roughly $16.6 billion.
Mary Johnson lowered her projection to 3.7%, down from 4.7%, following a drop in June inflation. The Senior Citizens League remains at 3.8%. AARP’s forecast is 3.6%.
The range remains higher than the 2.8% adjustment scheduled for 2026. However, it provides lower nominal income compared to Johnson’s previous projection.
This is relevant for investors monitoring consumer demand projections for early-2027. In June, Social Security distributed $138.058 billion to 71.255 million recipients.
Every percentage point increase in COLA amounts to approximately $1.38 billion per month based on that base. Over the course of a year, the change projected by Johnson equates to around $16.6 billion.
Forecast or assumption
2027 COLA
Average retired-worker monthly gain
Implied annual payout increase
AARP projection
3.6%
$75.04
$59.6 billion
Mary Johnson, latest
3.7%
$77.12
$61.3 billion
TSCL estimate
3.8%
$79.21
$63.0 billion
Assumption in Yahoo-linked article
3.9%
$81.29
$64.6 billion
Mary Johnson, earlier
4.7%
$97.97
$77.9 billion
Initial mechanical calculations are based on the $2,084.40 average retired-worker benefit in June and overall monthly Social Security payouts. Figures do not include growth in the number of beneficiaries, taxes, Medicare deductions, or payment rounding.
A Yahoo article referenced a 3.9% figure, crediting TSCL. As of July 14, TSCL’s most recent published estimate is 3.8%.
The CPI-W increased 3.5% in June from the same month a year ago. Compared to May, it declined 0.5% before seasonal adjustment.
Energy prices fell by 5.7% for the month, balancing out rises in the costs of food and shelter.
Social Security reviews CPI-W averages from the third quarter. The 2025 third-quarter base is set at 317.265.
A 3.8% modification signals a third-quarter 2026 average of approximately 329.321. This figure stands just 0.7% higher than the June level of 327.075.
Rich Johnson, AARP’s vice president for financial security, said, “Family budgets have been under increasing pressure because of rising prices.” AARP
The upcoming catalyst is July CPI, scheduled for August 12 at 08:30 EDT. Data for August will be released on September 11. September CPI is set to be published on October 14.
The last adjustment will be set by the October release. Increased payments would start being delivered with the January 2027 checks.
Risks: All existing projections are still initial. Fluctuations in energy costs may move CPI-W, and factors such as Medicare premiums and taxes could offset increases for recipients.
Currently, the estimated yearly payout increase is between $59.6 billion and $63.0 billion. The $77.9 billion result linked to a 4.7% figure is no longer likely.
What is the current projection for the 2027 Social Security COLA?
On July 14, 2026, two new forecasts reported an increase ranging from 3.6% to 3.8%. TSCL maintained its projection at 3.8%, and AARP estimated 3.6%. Both figures are at least 0.8 percentage point higher than the official 2.8% COLA paid during 2026. No final decision has been made yet.
What causes the forecast to remain uncertain?
Social Security determines its adjustment using the average CPI-W for July, August, and September 2026, which is then compared to the third-quarter 2025 figure of 317.265. No CPI-W data for those three months in 2026 has been published yet. While June figures assist analysts in projecting possible outcomes, they do not provide a definitive result.
What were the findings in the most recent CPI-W release?
The CPI-W for June rose to 327.075, an increase of 3.5% compared to a year ago. Compared to May, the index declined 0.5% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. It was 3.1% higher than the official COLA benchmark of 317.265, suggesting the potential for a larger adjustment, but this remains uncertain.
Which CPI-W average aligns with the top predictions?
Based on the 317.265 baseline, a precise 3.6% rise equals 328.687. For an exact 3.8% rise, the quarterly average is roughly 329.321. SSA rounds the calculated percentage to the nearest tenth of a percent. June’s figure of 327.075 came in lower, but the month of June is not included in the calculation.
What is the timing of the next significant data release?
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due Wednesday, August 12, at 8:30 ET, providing the initial monthly CPI-W figure for the 2027 COLA calculation. August figures will be released on September 11, with September’s data scheduled for October 14. There will be no official CPI-W report in the upcoming week. The final percentage for COLA can be determined after September data is published on October 14. Payments adjusted to the new rate are set to start in January 2027.
What is the potential increase in monthly benefits?
Retired-worker benefits averaged $2,084.40 in June 2026. A 3.6% rise would increase monthly payments by roughly $75, while a 3.8% adjustment would bring the gain to about $79. For a $3,000 benefit, the increase would range from $108 to $114 per month. These amounts are before deductions for Medicare and federal taxes.
What is the possible rise in yearly benefit payouts?
In June, SSA distributed $138.1 billion in Social Security benefits. An increase of 3.6% to 3.8% would result in an additional $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion per month. On an annualized basis, this represents an increase of about $60 billion to $63 billion in benefits. These calculations assume there is no shift in the number of beneficiaries or the benefit distribution. This figure reflects a gross increase in benefits and does not guarantee the same rise in consumer spending.
Is it possible that Medicare premiums could offset much of the rise?
For individuals whose Part B premiums are withheld, Medicare subtracts this amount from their total increase. The standard Part B premium for 2026 is set to be $202.90, representing a $17.90 rise from 2025. Projections from trustees put the 2027 premium at $209.50, a further $6.60 monthly increase. With a gross benefit gain of $75 to $79, the net boost is about $68 to $73. The 2027 premium figure is preliminary, meaning the actual deduction may be different.
What factors might lead the forecast to exceed or fall short of the current range?
Energy continues to be a key short-term variable for this outlook. June's CPI-U data showed energy decreasing by 5.7%, with gasoline prices sliding 9.7%. However, energy prices stayed 15.7% higher than a year ago. Another surge could push CPI-W higher in the critical quarter, while additional declines may bring the COLA closer to AARP's 3.6% projection.
Does a 3.6% to 3.8% COLA increase result in higher income for retirees?
Not all households will see the same benefit. The COLA is meant to compensate for tracked inflation, rather than giving a real increase. In June, grocery prices were up 2.7% year-on-year. Shelter costs increased 3.3%, and the main energy index jumped 15.7%. Real buying power varies widely depending on each household’s own spending profile. Regardless, either projection would top the 2.8% hike set for 2026.
Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and artificial intelligence to semiconductors and developments across global markets. He graduated from the Poznań University of Economics and Business and worked in financial analysis before becoming a business journalist. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.
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