NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 08:05 EDT — U.S. cash market activity before the open.
- Mary Johnson lowered her projected 2027 COLA to 3.7%, down from the earlier 4.7%.
- Leading predictions currently span from 3.6% by AARP to 3.8% from TSCL.
- July inflation figures will be released on August 12, with the final COLA announcement set for October 14.
An independent projection for the 2027 Social Security COLA has dropped by one percentage point, decreasing the calculated annual benefit rise by roughly $16.6 billion.
Mary Johnson lowered her projection to 3.7%, down from 4.7%, following a drop in June inflation. The Senior Citizens League remains at 3.8%. AARP’s forecast is 3.6%.
The range remains higher than the 2.8% adjustment scheduled for 2026. However, it provides lower nominal income compared to Johnson’s previous projection.
This is relevant for investors monitoring consumer demand projections for early-2027. In June, Social Security distributed $138.058 billion to 71.255 million recipients.
Every percentage point increase in COLA amounts to approximately $1.38 billion per month based on that base. Over the course of a year, the change projected by Johnson equates to around $16.6 billion.
| Forecast or assumption | 2027 COLA | Average retired-worker monthly gain | Implied annual payout increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| AARP projection | 3.6% | $75.04 | $59.6 billion |
| Mary Johnson, latest | 3.7% | $77.12 | $61.3 billion |
| TSCL estimate | 3.8% | $79.21 | $63.0 billion |
| Assumption in Yahoo-linked article | 3.9% | $81.29 | $64.6 billion |
| Mary Johnson, earlier | 4.7% | $97.97 | $77.9 billion |
Initial mechanical calculations are based on the $2,084.40 average retired-worker benefit in June and overall monthly Social Security payouts. Figures do not include growth in the number of beneficiaries, taxes, Medicare deductions, or payment rounding.
A Yahoo article referenced a 3.9% figure, crediting TSCL. As of July 14, TSCL’s most recent published estimate is 3.8%.
The CPI-W increased 3.5% in June from the same month a year ago. Compared to May, it declined 0.5% before seasonal adjustment.
Energy prices fell by 5.7% for the month, balancing out rises in the costs of food and shelter.
Social Security reviews CPI-W averages from the third quarter. The 2025 third-quarter base is set at 317.265.
A 3.8% modification signals a third-quarter 2026 average of approximately 329.321. This figure stands just 0.7% higher than the June level of 327.075.
Rich Johnson, AARP’s vice president for financial security, said, “Family budgets have been under increasing pressure because of rising prices.” AARP
The upcoming catalyst is July CPI, scheduled for August 12 at 08:30 EDT. Data for August will be released on September 11. September CPI is set to be published on October 14.
The last adjustment will be set by the October release. Increased payments would start being delivered with the January 2027 checks.
Risks: All existing projections are still initial. Fluctuations in energy costs may move CPI-W, and factors such as Medicare premiums and taxes could offset increases for recipients.
Currently, the estimated yearly payout increase is between $59.6 billion and $63.0 billion. The $77.9 billion result linked to a 4.7% figure is no longer likely.
