Washington, June 5, 2026, 06:02 (EDT)
- Social Security payments could drop by 24%, or about $500 a month on average, if Congress doesn’t fix the program, a new state-by-state analysis shows.
- The warning comes just weeks ahead of the next annual trustees report, which is a key measure of the program’s solvency.
- States paying higher average benefits would see the steepest losses. Older and lower-income states could face a bigger hit to their economies.
Social Security’s main fund is on track to run short in about 2032, leaving retirees with about $500 less each month if Congress does nothing, according to a new report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The group said this week that a 24% cut would drop average monthly checks by $459 to $556 in every state and Washington, D.C.
Timing is an issue ahead of the Social Security Administration’s next annual trustees report, expected in the next few weeks. The report will restart the countdown on a program that delivers monthly payments to tens of millions. Last year, the trustees had the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, or OASI, running at full benefits through 2033. But the agency later pulled that date forward to Q4 2032 after a tax change cut revenue from taxes on benefits.
Social Security’s trust fund isn’t a vault that runs dry and ends payments. The fund is there to cover the shortfall between payroll tax income and what’s promised. When reserves run out, benefits keep getting paid from taxes coming in, but they’d drop unless Congress steps in to boost funding, trim payments, move money, or rewrite the rules.
Connecticut faces the biggest average monthly cut at $556, the CRFB report said. New Jersey is next at $554, then New Hampshire with $553, Delaware at $549, and Maryland at $541. In 29 states, the average cut would go over $500. California stands to lose the most dollars overall—$33.4 billion. Florida would lose $26.6 billion and Texas $23.7 billion.
Social Security cuts have wider reach than just households. A 24% cut would slash $345 billion from benefits this year for current recipients, CRFB estimated, or about 1.1% of U.S. GDP. Losses would top 1% of state GDP in 40 states—West Virginia, Mississippi and Vermont would see the biggest hits.
The latest 2025 trustees report breaks out projections by each fund. OASI is seen able to pay full scheduled benefits until 2033, then drop to 77% of scheduled payouts from ongoing income. The disability trust fund is expected to stay solvent through at least 2099. Using the combined measure for old-age, survivors and disability funds — though this combo is strictly a legal fiction unless Congress acts — the projection has depletion in 2034, with that combined pot paying 81% of scheduled benefits after that.
CBO officials have taken a direct stance on the retirement fund outlook. Molly Dahl, who leads long-term analysis at the CBO, told the Senate Budget Committee in March the OASI trust fund will run out in fiscal 2032 if nothing changes, triggering automatic benefit cuts. CBO’s payable-benefits scenario calls for an average cut of 28% per year from 2033 to 2036, following a smaller cut in 2032.
Senators heard from Karen P. Glenn, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, that there’s little room to maneuver on the program’s long-term gap. “The math is simple,” Glenn said. Lawmakers could raise program income by around a third, cut scheduled benefits by about a quarter, or do both.
CBO sees the same problems pushing Social Security costs higher: more retirees, fewer births, longer benefit payouts and higher wage growth above the payroll tax cap. Social Security outlays are set to go from 5.2% of GDP in 2026 up to 6.0% by 2056. Revenue stays around 4.5% of GDP.
Lawmakers have shortened the timeline again. The 2025 trustees said the Social Security Fairness Act worsened the combined fund outlook by pushing up benefits for some workers. Later, SSA’s actuary said the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would lower tax revenue from benefits and push OASI depletion from early 2033 to late 2032.
There’s still a political wildcard. Congress can act to block the automatic cuts, and past behavior suggests lawmakers might step in before benefits drop. But timing matters: acting early means cuts or tax hikes can roll in slowly, while waiting makes them larger and harder to protect today’s retirees from. CRFB President Maya MacGuineas has pushed for a bipartisan commission, warning that “time is slipping away” with the retirement fund now under seven years from running dry. CRFB
Medicare gets another deadline in the debate. The 2025 trustees say Medicare’s Hospital Insurance fund will run out in 2033, leaving 89% of scheduled benefits payable past then. Social Security’s disability fund is in better shape, but that doesn’t solve the retirement fund’s shortfall.
Social Security checks aren’t set to vanish for beneficiaries—the risk is that the payments shrink. The CRFB report put it bluntly: cuts wouldn’t just hit a handful of retirees or a single state. “No state would be spared,” the report said. CRFB
