SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) heads into Thursday’s U.S. session in the middle of a tug‑of‑war: powerful fundamental momentum and new products on one side, fresh dilution and rate‑sensitive valuation risk on the other.
On Wednesday, December 10, SoFi shares closed at $27.09, up 0.97% on the day, before slipping to about $26.85 in after‑hours trading as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and ongoing fallout from the company’s $1.5 billion stock offering. [1]
At this level, the stock sits close to various deal and technical lines in the sand—most notably the $27.50 offering price, its 50‑day moving average near $28.17, and a watched support band in the mid‑$20s. [2]
Here is what happened after the bell on December 10 and what investors should know before the market opens on Thursday, December 11, 2025.
1. Where SoFi Stock Stands After the Bell
Based on StockAnalysis data, SoFi’s Wednesday tape looked like this: [3]
- Regular session (Dec 10, 2025)
- Open: $26.65
- High: $27.68
- Low: $26.48
- Close: $27.09
- Volume: ~60.9 million shares
- After‑hours (7:59 p.m. ET)
- Price: $26.85, down 0.89% from the regular‑session close
The close at $27.09 marked a rebound from Tuesday’s $26.83 finish and leaves SoFi up roughly 80–90% year‑to‑date, depending on the source, after a spectacular multi‑year run that has seen the stock climb more than sixfold from late‑2022 levels. [4]
Key context going into Thursday:
- 52‑week range: roughly $8.60–$32.73, underscoring how far the shares have run in a short time. [5]
- Valuation: MarketBeat estimates SoFi’s trailing P/E ratio around 50x, reflecting a premium multiple for a high‑growth, high‑beta fintech name. [6]
- Trend: Benzinga notes that SoFi is trading about 4.3% below its 50‑day moving average (~$28.17) but still roughly 33.6% above its 200‑day moving average (~$20.18)—a strong longer‑term uptrend with some near‑term technical resistance overhead. [7]
In other words, SoFi remains a momentum stock that is no longer cheap, and that magnifies the importance of every macro and company‑specific headline around the open.
2. New Smart Card Launch: Product Momentum in Focus
The biggest SoFi‑specific news dated December 10 is the official launch of the SoFi Smart Card, billed as “the best all‑in‑one account” for SoFi Plus members. [8]
According to SoFi and coverage from PYMNTS and MarketScreener, the Smart Card:
- Combines features of checking, savings, debit and credit into one account
- Offers 5% unlimited cash‑back rewards on grocery purchases, potentially worth more than $600 per year for typical spending levels [9]
- Pays up to 4.30% APY on SoFi savings balances for a promotional period [10]
- Uses a dynamic credit limit tied to the member’s SoFi checking and savings balances
- Aims to help members build credit history with on‑time payments, without a hard credit pull to apply [11]
The product is aimed at deepening SoFi’s “all‑in‑one” relationship strategy: attract members via high‑yield deposits, then cross‑sell into lending, investing and now high‑rewards payments. PYMNTS also highlights SoFi’s evolution from a simple fintech into a full‑service neobank with an owned bank at its center, emphasizing that payments and checking draw users in while lending and investing drive margins. [12]
For Thursday’s open, the Smart Card matters less as an immediate earnings driver and more as a signal that SoFi is still adding sticky, high‑engagement products even while digesting a large capital raise.
3. The $1.5 Billion Stock Offering: Dilution vs. Growth Capital
The defining overhang on SoFi’s share price this week remains the $1.5 billion common stock offering announced on December 4 and later priced at $27.50 per share for 54,545,454 new shares. [13]
Key details:
- Size: ~$1.5 billion gross proceeds
- Price: $27.50 per share, at a discount to the then‑current price around $29.60 [14]
- Underwriters: Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Mizuho [15]
- Use of proceeds: “general corporate purposes,” including enhancing capital position, increasing optionality, enabling more efficient capital management and funding incremental growth opportunities [16]
The market reaction was swift:
- Shares fell 5–6% in after‑hours trading on the initial announcement, as reported by multiple outlets including MarketWatch, Investing.com and Stocktwits. [17]
- 24/7 Wall St. notes that the stock dropped 6–7% in the first regular session after the deal, even though the shares remain up ~79% year‑to‑date. [18]
Commentary has split into two camps:
- Bearish angle:
- Dilution concerns and a still‑rich multiple have prompted some analysts and columnists (including on Seeking Alpha) to argue that the raise “raises red flags” about capital discipline and insider selling. [19]
- Constructive angle:
- Others frame the offering as potentially earnings‑accretive over time if the $1.5 billion is deployed into high‑return lending, technology or M&A opportunities, especially given SoFi’s already strong balance sheet and growth profile. [20]
Crucially for traders before the bell, the $27.50 offering price has become a psychological anchor. TS2.tech and options‑market commentary highlight that with SOFI hovering slightly below that level, investors are watching whether the deal price acts as a ceiling or a magnet for buyers as volatility around the Fed decision plays out. TechStock²+1
4. Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut Adds Fuel—and Uncertainty
On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75% at its final meeting of 2025. [21]
Key macro takeaways:
- It was the third rate cut of 2025, in line with market expectations. [22]
- Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves,” signaling a cautious, data‑dependent path into 2026 rather than an aggressive easing cycle. [23]
- Major U.S. equity indexes rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 nearly setting a new all‑time closing high and the Russell 2000 small‑cap index hitting a record, reflecting improved risk appetite. [24]
For SoFi specifically, lower rates are a double‑edged sword:
- Positive:
- Lower borrowing costs can revive student‑loan and mortgage refinancing, two key drivers of SoFi’s lending engine. [25]
- A downshift in deposit rates over time can widen net interest margins, easing the pressure of paying high yields to attract deposits. [26]
- As a high‑growth fintech, SoFi’s valuation is sensitive to the discount rate; a lower path for future rates boosts the present value of long‑dated cash flows. [27]
- Risks:
- If the market interprets the Fed’s move as “one and done” or more hawkish than hoped, longer‑term yields may stay elevated and growth stocks like SoFi could see renewed pressure. TechStock²+1
- A slower‑than‑expected easing cycle would temper hopes for a 2026 refinancing boom that several analysts have built into their SoFi models. [28]
Heading into Thursday’s open, overnight moves in Treasury yields and index futures in response to Powell’s press conference are likely to be just as important to SoFi’s share price as any company‑specific headline.
5. Fundamentals: Eight Straight Profitable Quarters
Underneath the volatility, SoFi’s recent fundamentals remain strong.
MarketBeat and other outlets summarise SoFi’s third‑quarter 2025 results as follows: [29]
- Revenue: around $949–962 million, up about 38% year‑over‑year
- GAAP net income: roughly $139 million, more than doubling from the prior year
- EPS:$0.11, beating the $0.09 consensus estimate
- Profit streak:8 consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability
- Deposit base: about $32.9 billion in deposits, providing a sizeable, relatively low‑cost funding base [30]
- Mix shift: fee‑based revenue reached roughly $409 million, or about 43% of adjusted net revenue, reflecting a deliberate shift toward a capital‑light, fee‑driven model. [31]
SoFi is also leaning into higher‑growth adjacencies:
- On November 11, SoFi Bank relaunched crypto trading, becoming the first and only nationally chartered, FDIC‑insured U.S. bank to let retail customers buy, sell and hold a broad range of cryptocurrencies directly in‑app. [32]
- Through a partnership with Templum, SoFi has opened a limited December 8–19 investment window giving accredited members rare access to private stakes in Epic Games and Stripe via the Cosmos Fund. [33]
These initiatives support a broader strategy: build SoFi into a one‑stop digital financial platform, with lending, banking, investing, crypto and alternative assets all feeding into a single member relationship.
6. Analyst Ratings and Forecasts Going Into December 11
Analyst sentiment on SoFi is more cautious than the stock’s headline performance might suggest.
Consensus Ratings and Price Targets
- StockAnalysis aggregates 15 covering analysts with a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target of $24.70, implying about ‑8.8% downside from Wednesday’s close. Targets range from $12 to $37. [34]
- MarketBeat shows a similar “Hold” consensus with an average target around $25.69. [35]
- MarketScreener lists a Hold consensus from 21 analysts with an average target near $26.97, very close to the current trading band. [36]
Recent changes underscore the split view:
- Truist trimmed its target from $31 to $28 while maintaining a Hold rating.
- UBS raised its target from $21 to $28, also at Hold.
- Citigroup is at the bullish end, moving from $28 to $37 with a Strong Buy rating. [37]
Street Forecasts for Growth
Wall‑Street consensus, compiled by StockAnalysis, implies a powerful—if not perfectly smooth—growth trajectory: [38]
- Revenue 2025:$3.62 billion, up about 37% from 2024
- Revenue 2026:$4.61 billion, another 27% expected growth
- EPS 2025:$0.37 (slightly below 2024’s $0.39, reflecting dilution and growth investment)
- EPS 2026:$0.61, a projected 66–67% jump
Some algorithmic price‑projection sites, such as CoinCodex, point to a wide range of potential longer‑term outcomes, with modelled scenarios spanning from mid‑teens to low‑$50s by 2030—useful for illustrating uncertainty rather than as precise forecasts. [39]
Taken together, the message from the sell‑side is: strong growth, but much of it already priced in, with opinion divided on whether the new share issuance will ultimately enhance or erode shareholder value.
7. Institutional Flows and Insider Activity
A new MarketBeat filing‑based note published December 10 adds nuance to the ownership picture. [40]
Key points:
- Russell Investments Group Ltd. increased its SoFi stake by 28.3% in Q2 to 118,503 shares, worth about $2.16 million, as of the latest SEC filing.
- A range of other institutional investors, including XTX Topco Ltd and various advisory firms, have also been adding to positions, bringing institutional ownership to roughly 38.4%. [41]
- At the same time, SoFi has seen notable insider selling, with insiders disposing of about 175,277 shares (~$4.69 million) in the most recent quarter. Named executives include Arun Pinto and CTO Jeremy Rishel. Insider ownership sits around 2.6%. [42]
For Thursday’s open, investors may interpret this mix as:
- Supportive institutional conviction in the long‑term story
- Offset by ongoing insider profit‑taking, which some view as a normal response to a big rally, and others as a caution flag at current valuations
8. Key Technical Levels and Options Signals to Watch
Two sources—Benzinga’s Wednesday note and TS2’s pre‑Fed analysis—highlight levels and flows that could matter around the open. [43]
Technical Lines in Play
- Mid‑$20s support zone:
- Options data show heavy put positioning around the $25–$26 strikes for 2026 expirations, suggesting that many big traders see this region as a key battleground. TechStock²
- A decisive break below $26 on strong volume could trigger hedging flows and technical selling.
- Holding above the mid‑$20s would support the idea that the post‑offering slide is morphing into consolidation rather than a full trend reversal. TechStock²+1
- $27.50 deal price:
- This remains an important reference point for the new shares. Sustained trading above $27.50 would signal the market is comfortably absorbing the offering; repeated failure just below it would reinforce the notion that valuation is stretched post‑rally and post‑dilution. [44]
- Moving averages:
- Near‑term resistance around the 50‑day moving average (~$28.17) and support well below at the 200‑day (~$20.18) define the broader trend channel, with SoFi currently closer to the former than the latter. [45]
9. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11
Putting the pieces together, here are the main factors likely to drive SoFi stock sentiment into Thursday’s open:
- Overnight reaction to the Fed
- If bond yields continue to drift lower and index futures stay firm after Wednesday’s rate cut and Powell’s comments, the environment will be supportive for high‑beta growth names like SoFi. A reversal in yields could quickly pressure the stock instead. [46]
- Positioning around the $27–$28 band
- Watch how SoFi trades relative to $27.50 (the offering price) and the $28+ area (near the 50‑day moving average). Strength through both levels would suggest the dilution shock is fading. Weakness below $26–$26.50 would confirm that sellers still dominate. [47]
- Ongoing digestion of the share sale
- Commentary from analysts and financial media continues to frame the offering as a crossroads decision: either prudent growth capital or unnecessary dilution at a premium valuation. Fresh notes or rating changes Thursday morning could sway sentiment. [48]
- Product and partnership narrative
- The combination of Smart Card launch, Templum private‑market access, and crypto relaunch paints a picture of a company still on offense. Any early data points, member commentary, or additional partnerships announced around these themes would likely be read as incremental positives. [49]
- Flows from institutions and options markets
- New 13F filings or updates on options open interest could solidify the emerging pattern: institutions slowly adding, insiders trimming, and derivatives traders bracketing risk around the mid‑$20s. [50]
10. Bottom Line
By the close of December 10, SoFi had:
- Reasserted its long‑term growth story with eight quarters of GAAP profits, rapid revenue expansion and a growing deposit base
- Expanded its product flywheel via Smart Card, crypto trading and alternative‑asset access
- Simultaneously unnerved parts of the market with a $1.5 billion equity offering at a time when its stock already traded at a rich multiple
Heading into the December 11 open, SoFi remains a high‑beta, high‑expectation fintech story directly in the path of the Fed’s new rate trajectory. Short‑term moves are likely to be amplified—both up and down—by macro headlines, technical levels around the mid‑$20s and investors’ evolving view of whether the fresh capital will ultimately justify the dilution.
References
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