SoFi Stock Drops After $1.5 Billion Share Sale: What Today’s Move Means for SOFI and Its 2025

On December 5, 2025, shares of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) fell sharply after the company priced a new $1.5 billion common stock offering, its second equity raise of the same size in six months. Despite the pullback, SoFi stock is still up dramatically in 2025, and fresh forecasts now stretch all the way out to 2030. ^[1]

As of the close on Friday, SOFI traded around $27.8, down roughly 6% from Thursday’s close of $29.60, after gapping down at the open on unusually heavy volume. ^[2]

Below is a full breakdown of today’s news, Wall Street reaction, and long‑term SoFi stock forecasts – in a format suitable for Google News and Discover readers.

Why SoFi Stock Is Down Today

The new $1.5 billion stock offering

Late on Thursday, December 4, SoFi announced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion of its common stock. The company then followed up by pricing 54,545,454 new shares at $27.50 per share, implying gross proceeds of about $1.5 billion before fees. ^[3]

Key details of the deal:

Size: ~$1.5 billion in new common stock
Shares issued: 54,545,454
Offer price:$27.50 – roughly a 7% discount to Thursday’s close of $29.60 ^[4]
Greenshoe (over‑allotment): Underwriters have a 30‑day option to buy up to ~8.18 million additional shares (about 15% more) at the same price, which could lift total proceeds toward $1.7+ billion. ^[5]
Expected closing date: Around December 8, 2025, subject to standard conditions. ^[6]
Lead underwriter: Goldman Sachs, alongside BofA Securities, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Mizuho and others. ^[7]

SoFi says the net proceeds will be used for “general corporate purposes”, including:

Strengthening its regulatory capital position
Adding “optionality” and flexibility to capital management
Funding incremental growth and business opportunities, including new products and expansion initiatives ^[8]

Market reaction: dilution shock at the open

Equity raises almost always hurt a stock in the short term because new shares dilute existing shareholders’ ownership.

That played out fast:

Premarket: SOFI slid about 7–9%, trading near $27.4 before the open. ^[9]
Open: Shares gapped down from $29.60 to roughly $27.37. ^[10]
Intraday: SoFi traded near $27.7–$27.8 on very heavy volume (over 34 million shares reported early in the day). ^[11]

Several outlets emphasized that this is SoFi’s second $1.5 billion equity raise in roughly six months, after a similar offering in July 2025. ^[12]

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) described the move as “a little surprising” given SoFi’s improving capital ratios, but also “largely opportunistic” because the stock was trading near all‑time highs. ^[13]

How big is the dilution?

The new $1.5 billion offering represents a relatively modest dilution in percentage terms:

With SoFi’s market cap in the mid‑$30 billion range, analysts estimate about 5% dilution at most if the full greenshoe is exercised. ^[14]

From a valuation perspective, the offering:

Locks in capital at a price not far below recent highs (around $32 per share at the peak this year)
Raises funds while the share price is strong, rather than waiting for a downturn

That’s why some analysts and commentators see the move as strategic rather than desperate, even if short‑term traders are selling on the headline. ^[15]

SoFi’s 2025 Scorecard: Rally First, Pullback Second

A soaring year for SOFI stock

Even after today’s drop, SoFi has had a standout year in 2025:

Year‑to‑date gains range from about 77% to over 90%, depending on the starting date and data source. ^[16]
One analysis notes SoFi stock is up more than sixfold since the end of 2022. ^[17]
Another highlights a “101% surge” over the past year, pushing shares to fresh all‑time highs around $32 before the latest pullback. ^[18]

Investopedia summed up the story as “investors have bid SoFi stock up all year” thanks to consistent earnings beats, new products and bank‑like stability, but notes that the equity raise has made them “back off” in the short term. ^[19]

Earnings: profitable growth with strong Q3 numbers

Recent fundamentals have been a major reason behind the rally:

Q3 revenue: around $950–960 million, up roughly 38% year‑over‑year. ^[20]
Q3 net income: about $139 million, more than doubling vs. the prior year. ^[21]
Net margin in the high teens (~19%). ^[22]
EPS beat: SoFi earned $0.11 per share, topping consensus estimates of $0.09. ^[23]

Management also issued FY 2025 EPS guidance around $0.37, which some analysts regard as solid but not spectacular relative to the stock’s big run‑up. ^[24]

Operationally, SoFi continues to look like a high‑growth fintech platform:

Members: Over 12.6 million users across lending, checking, investing and other services. ^[25]
Technology platform (Galileo): Supports nearly 160 million accounts globally. ^[26]
Product expansion: Relaunched SoFi Crypto, making it the first nationally chartered, FDIC‑insured bank to offer crypto trading alongside traditional bank accounts; planning to launch its own stablecoin in 2026. ^[27]

Wall Street View: Ratings and 12‑Month Price Targets for SOFI

Consensus rating: cautious “Hold”

Across major data providers, SoFi stock currently carries a consensus “Hold” rating:

StockAnalysis tracks 17 analysts with an overall Hold and an average price target of $24.70, implying roughly 11% downside from today’s ~$27.8 price. ^[28]
MarketBeat sees a broader group of 23 analysts:
- 1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 12 Hold, 3 Sell
- Average target:$24.88, also below current levels. ^[29]

In short, Wall Street generally respects SoFi’s business momentum but thinks the stock has run ahead of fundamentals after its big 2025 rally.

Recent analyst moves

Several firms have adjusted their price targets in recent months:

Truist Securities: trimmed its target from $31 to $28, rating Hold. ^[30]
UBS: raised its target from $21 to $28, also at Hold. ^[31]
Goldman Sachs: lifted its target from $24 to $27 and assigned a neutral stance. ^[32]
Citigroup: boosted its target from $28 to $37, rating SoFi a Buy/Strong Buy and positioning it as a higher‑beta growth play. ^[33]
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: nudged its target from $18 to $20 while maintaining an Underperform/Sell view, highlighting valuation and capital concerns. ^[34]

The spread between bearish targets around $18–20 and bullish ones up near $35–37 underlines just how polarizing SoFi has become.

SoFi Stock Forecast 2025–2030: What the Latest Models Say

Street one‑year target vs. current price

A December 5th deep‑dive from 24/7 Wall St. notes that the Wall Street consensus one‑year price target for SoFi is about $26.97 from 22 analysts – a level the stock has already overshot. Only six of those analysts rate SoFi a Buy. ^[35]

With the stock trading in the high‑$27s, that implies:

Near‑term upside: limited or slightly negative based on the Street’s averages
Key risk: if SoFi merely meets, but doesn’t beat, expectations, multiple compression could pull the price back toward the mid‑20s

24/7 Wall St’s long‑term scenario

24/7 Wall St also publishes its own long‑term SoFi forecast, based on revenue and earnings projections through 2030. The core assumptions:

Revenue growth: steady ~10% year‑over‑year through the decade
Net income: rising from about $320 million in 2025 to roughly $1.28 billion in 2030 ^[36]
Valuation: a price‑to‑sales multiple of 3.5x applied consistently across the forecast period, benchmarked vs. peers like Block, PayPal, Upstart, LendingClub and Affirm. ^[37]

Under that framework, their projected year‑end price targets for SOFI are:

2025:$29.41 (roughly flat vs. current price)
2026:$35.70
2027:$39.26
2028:$44.85
2029:$50.12
2030:$55.30, about 87% above today’s price in their model. ^[38]

This is an independent valuation model, not a guarantee. It effectively says: if SoFi hits those growth and profitability milestones and the market continues to value it at roughly 3.5x sales, long‑term upside could be substantial.

Bull vs. Bear Case After the Share Offering

The bull case for SoFi stock

Recent coverage across Investopedia, 24/7 Wall St., MarketBeat, and Investing.com highlights several bullish themes: ^[39]

Profitable, high‑growth fintech “super app”
- Rapid revenue growth (high‑30% YoY) and expanding margins
- Several consecutive quarters of earnings beats
Bank charter & low‑cost deposits
- SoFi’s national bank charter lets it fund loans with customer deposits rather than relying solely on wholesale funding, which can widen net interest margins over time.
Product expansion & cross‑sell
- From student loan refinancing to personal loans, mortgages, checking & savings, brokerage, ETFs and crypto, SoFi keeps adding ways to deepen customer relationships. ^[40]
- The longer a member stays in the ecosystem and uses more products, the more profitable that relationship becomes.
Technology platform (Galileo) as a hidden asset
- Galileo’s infrastructure powers financial services for other companies, not just SoFi’s own app, creating a B2B “picks and shovels” revenue stream. ^[41]
Crypto, stablecoin and AI‑adjacent growth angles
- Relaunch of SoFi Crypto and plans to launch a SoFi‑branded stablecoin in 2026. ^[42]
- Launch of a new AI‑focused ETF and a partnership with Lightspark to use blockchain for international money transfers. ^[43]
Potential S&P 500 inclusion
- Multiple analyses suggest SoFi could qualify for the S&P 500 in an upcoming rebalancing, which would force index funds to buy the stock and could act as a medium‑term catalyst. ^[44]

The bear case for SoFi stock

The bears – including more cautious analysts and some recent commentary from MarketBeat, KBW and The Motley Fool – flag several key risks: ^[45]

Valuation has already “re‑rated” higher
- SoFi now trades at a lofty earnings multiple (P/E above 50) and a premium to many traditional banks. ^[46]
- With consensus one‑year targets around $25–27, the stock may be priced for near‑perfection.
Repeat equity raises & dilution
- Two $1.5 billion share offerings within six months fuel concerns that management will keep tapping equity markets, especially while the stock is strong. ^[47]
- Even if dilution is “only” around 5% this time, repeated offerings add up.
Capital and risk‑management questions
- Some analysts argue SoFi’s capital levels are still low vs. traditional banks, partly explaining the raises. ^[48]
- A fintech lending book is inherently sensitive to the credit cycle; a recession or spike in defaults could compress margins and stress capital ratios. ^[49]
Insider selling and mixed sentiment
- MarketBeat points out insider sales totaling about 175,000 shares over the last three months, and emphasizes that top‑rated analysts often recommend other stocks instead. ^[50]
Regulatory uncertainty, especially around crypto & stablecoins
- SoFi’s push deeper into crypto and a future stablecoin could invite tighter regulatory scrutiny, which might raise compliance costs or limit certain products. ^[51]

What Today’s Move Could Mean for SOFI Investors

Short‑term: offering price as a potential “gravity point”

Historically, when a fast‑rising growth stock announces a discounted equity offering, a few patterns often emerge:

The offering price (here $27.50) can act as a short‑term anchor, with shares trading near that level until the deal closes and new supply is digested. ^[52]
Momentum traders who chased the breakout may lock in profits, adding to volatility.
Longer‑term investors sometimes view the dip as an opportunity if they believe the capital will generate higher future earnings than the cost of dilution – an argument The Motley Fool hints at by noting the July offering shock eventually faded and the stock later traded about 30% above its level at that time. ^[53]

None of this guarantees a bounce. The key near‑term drivers will likely be:

How the stock trades as the offering closes around December 8
Any news on index inclusion or rating changes
Broader risk‑on / risk‑off sentiment in growth and fintech stocks

Medium to long term: execution vs. expectations

Over the next several years, SoFi’s share price will probably hinge on two big questions:

Can SoFi maintain high growth while scaling profitability?
- 24/7 Wall St.’s model assumes revenue can grow ~10% annually and net income climbs steadily to over $1.2 billion by 2030. ^[54]
- If SoFi beats those expectations, the stock could justify premium multiples or even exceed the $55+ 2030 price in that model.
- If growth slows or credit losses climb, the market could demand a lower multiple, meaning the stock might lag even if the business keeps expanding.
Does the market keep rewarding SoFi with a “fintech premium”?
- Today’s P/E above 50 and mid‑30s P/S multiple versus earnings guidance reflect strong confidence. ^[55]
- Should SoFi come to be seen more like a traditional bank rather than a high‑growth fintech, valuation could compress closer to bank‑style multiples, limiting upside even with solid execution.

Bottom Line

Today’s drop in SoFi stock is primarily about dilution, not a sudden collapse in fundamentals. The company is using a still‑elevated share price to raise $1.5 billion+ in fresh capital, after a huge 2025 rally that left the stock near all‑time highs. ^[56]
Wall Street is split: ratings cluster around Hold, with price targets averaging in the mid‑20s, slightly below the current price – signaling that many analysts think the market has already priced in a lot of good news. ^[57]
Long‑term forecasts, such as the 24/7 Wall St. 2025–2030 model, paint a scenario where SOFI could nearly double by 2030, assuming steady growth and stable valuation multiples. But these scenarios are heavily assumption‑dependent and far from certain. ^[58]

For existing or prospective investors, the key is to decide whether SoFi’s bank‑plus‑fintech model, technology platform and product roadmap justify:

Repeated but strategic capital raises, and
A valuation that’s already rich by traditional banking standards.

This article is for information and commentary only and does not constitute financial advice. Anyone considering SOFI (or any stock) should do their own research, consider their risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional.