As of 2:49 p.m. in New York (ET) on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are back from the Christmas break in what’s typically lighter, more headline-sensitive trading. [1]
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SoFi, ticker SOFI) is trading in the thick of that holiday tape. At the latest available trade time (about 2:33 p.m. ET), SOFI shares were at $27.33, down $0.15 (-0.55%), after opening at $27.54 and trading in a $27.12–$27.53 range on roughly 17.1 million shares of volume.
Today’s market backdrop: light volume, “Santa rally” scrutiny, and why it matters for SOFI
Midday, major U.S. indexes were mixed to slightly lower, with expectations for lighter trading volume as many large institutional desks stay relatively quiet into year-end. [2]
Seasonality is also in the conversation: December 26 has historically been one of the most consistently positive days for the S&P 500, and it sits inside the well-known “Santa Claus rally” window (last five trading days of the year + first two of the next). That’s not a law of physics—just a pattern investors watch when liquidity is thin and sentiment can swing fast. [3]
For a high-beta fintech like SoFi, thin liquidity can exaggerate moves (up or down). It also means that company-specific headlines—capital raises, product launches, analyst notes—can “hit harder” than usual.
What’s driving SoFi’s story right now
Three themes have dominated the most recent SOFI narrative:
- Strong profitability and growth metrics in 2025
- A major equity offering and the dilution debate
- A renewed push into crypto rails (crypto trading + a stablecoin)
Here’s what investors and analysts are focused on within each.
1) The fundamentals: record revenue, GAAP profitability streak, and member growth
SoFi’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) gave bulls a lot of ammunition.
In its Q3 2025 release filed with the SEC, SoFi reported:
- GAAP net revenue of $961.6 million, up 38% year over year
- GAAP net income of $139.4 million and diluted EPS of $0.11
- Eighth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability
- 905,000 net new members in the quarter, bringing total members to over 12.6 million (up 35% year over year)
- Total deposits of $32.9 billion, up $3.4 billion in the quarter
- Net interest margin of 5.84%, up year over year, alongside continued focus on funding mix (including deposit costs versus warehouse facilities) [4]
That last point matters because SoFi’s bank charter increasingly shows up as an operational advantage: the company highlighted that the average rate on deposits was 190 bps lower than warehouse facilities, translating (in its disclosure) into material annualized interest expense savings as it “remixes” its funding base. [5]
Reuters also reported that CEO Anthony Noto described member health as strong and credit performance as “excellent” during the quarter, with improving net charge-offs—an important detail for any lender in a late-cycle economy. [6]
Guidance and expectations
After that record quarter, Reuters reported SoFi raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to about $0.37 (from about $0.31 previously), versus analysts’ expectations of roughly $0.32 (per LSEG-compiled estimates). [7]
2) The $1.5B equity offering: why it happened, what it means, and why investors still argue about it
In early December, SoFi priced a large common-stock offering that became a central talking point for valuation.
SoFi announced it priced an underwritten public offering of 54,545,454 shares at $27.50, for about $1.5 billion in gross proceeds. [8]
SEC filings later confirmed the offering closed on December 8, 2025, and reiterated the key terms (including the underwriting syndicate led by major banks and the option for underwriters to buy additional shares). [9]
The prospectus supplement also laid out the math (price to public, underwriting discount, and proceeds) and noted that SOFI closed at $29.60 on December 4, 2025—a useful reference point for understanding why the market framed the deal as “discounted” and dilutive. [10]
The investor debate: opportunistic funding vs. dilution hangover
Investopedia captured the surprise reaction: the equity raise was not widely expected, and KBW analyst Tim Switzer said he was “a little surprised,” calling the move largely “opportunistic” with the stock near highs—while also pointing to capital levels versus bank peers as part of the rationale. [11]
That tension still hangs over SOFI today:
- Bull interpretation: extra capital increases flexibility (growth investment, capital management, optionality).
- Bear interpretation: dilution raises the bar for per-share growth, especially if the stock’s valuation already assumes a lot of future execution.
3) Crypto strategy: SoFi Crypto is back, and SoFiUSD raises the ambition level
SoFi’s crypto push is not just “a feature”—it’s increasingly positioned as infrastructure.
Crypto trading relaunch
Reuters reported that SoFi rolled out crypto trading again, with CEO Anthony Noto saying SoFi is the first U.S. bank to offer crypto trading and investing, enabled by shifting regulatory clarity (including OCC guidance). [12]
Barron’s similarly framed this as SoFi re-entering crypto after pausing the business while securing its national bank charter. [13]
Stablecoin: SoFiUSD
On December 18, SoFi announced SoFiUSD, a U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. The company said it is fully reserved 1:1 by cash for redemption and emphasized the bank’s regulatory posture (OCC-regulated insured depository institution). [14]
Banking Dive added an important operational detail: SoFi’s stablecoin push isn’t only about issuing SoFiUSD—it’s also about offering stablecoin infrastructure that other banks and fintechs can white-label, with interoperability between those tokens and SoFiUSD. [15]
Barron’s reported that the stablecoin announcement was welcomed by the market at the time, describing SoFiUSD as a way for partners to move funds quickly and cheaply, and tying it to broader stablecoin regulation momentum. [16]
Why equity investors care: if SoFi can convert stablecoin/crypto rails into fee-based revenue (payments flows, treasury/settlement tooling, enterprise partnerships), it potentially diversifies away from pure lending spread economics—a strategic goal SoFi has repeatedly emphasized through its multi-segment model.
SOFI stock forecast: what analysts are expecting (and where they disagree)
Wall Street is not monolithic on SoFi—especially after a massive 2025 run-up.
Consensus ratings and targets (two snapshots)
- MarketBeat reported that 22 brokerages rate SoFi an average “Hold”, with a mean 12-month price target around $25.69 (and a mix of sells, holds, and buys). [17]
- A Nasdaq-hosted piece citing Fintel data said that as of late October 2025, the average one-year target was $23.48, with forecasts ranging from $12.12 to $33.60. [18]
With SOFI around $27.33 today, those averages imply that many published targets sit at or below the current price, which often happens when a stock runs faster than the analyst community updates models.
Notable analyst actions and viewpoints (recent cycle)
A few specific, sourced examples:
- Barclays: raised its price target to $23 from $21 and maintained Equal Weight, pointing to Q3 results beating expectations across segments and contribution profit. [19]
- JPMorgan (Reginald Smith): raised its target to $26 from $24 with a Neutral rating, citing SoFi’s pattern of “beating and raising,” stable credit signs, and strong loan buyer demand. [20]
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (Timothy Switzer): raised its target to $18 from $14 but kept an Underperform rating, arguing that while near-term catalysts exist, the longer-term risk/reward can look unfavorable at a “premium valuation.” [21]
That spread—$18 on the cautious end vs. upper-20s/low-30s on more optimistic frameworks—tells you the core disagreement: Is SoFi already priced for an “everything goes right” future, or is it still early in a multi-year compounding story?
What investors should watch for next
Because the U.S. stock market is open right now (it’s 2:49 p.m. ET), the immediate question is less “what happened?” and more “what changes between now and the close?”
Into today’s close
- Liquidity: holiday sessions can produce noisy tape action—moves that look meaningful but reverse quickly. [22]
- SOFI’s “gravity levels”: the December offering was priced at $27.50, and SOFI is trading near that zone today. Markets sometimes treat recent offering prices as a psychological reference point (not a guarantee—just a behavior you’ll see). [23]
Before the next session (Monday, Dec. 29)
- Headline risk: any incremental updates on enterprise adoption of the stablecoin infrastructure, crypto rollout cadence, or capital strategy can matter more when liquidity remains thin. [24]
- Year-end positioning: funds often rebalance, harvest gains/losses, or reduce risk into January—flows that can move high-momentum names disproportionately. [25]
Key upcoming catalyst: next earnings
SoFi’s next earnings date is not confirmed yet, but multiple trackers estimate late January 2026 (commonly January 26, 2026, often shown as “unconfirmed/estimated”). Investors should treat this as a placeholder until the company formally announces. [26]
Bottom line on SoFi stock right now
SoFi enters the final trading days of 2025 with:
- Fresh evidence of profitability and operating leverage (per Q3 results and raised outlook) [27]
- A recent $1.5B equity raise that improved flexibility but created dilution debate [28]
- A bolder crypto infrastructure bet (crypto trading + SoFiUSD stablecoin + potential white-label rails) that could expand fee-based revenue—but also brings regulatory and execution risk [29]
At $27-ish, SOFI is trading at a level where many consensus price targets cluster below or near the current price—meaning the market is already assigning a meaningful probability to continued outperformance in 2026. [30]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. investors.sofi.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. investors.sofi.com, 15. www.bankingdive.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. investors.sofi.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com
