SoFi Stock Slides After Second $1.5 Billion Share Sale in 2025 – What It Means for SOFI’s 2026 Outlook

Date: December 5, 2025 – Ticker: SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI)

SoFi’s share price has been on a rocket ride since late 2022 — and management is now tapping that strength again.

Late Thursday and into Friday, SoFi Technologies, Inc. announced and priced a new $1.5 billion public offering of common stock, its second $1.5 billion equity raise this year. The move sent SOFI lower in extended trading as investors grappled with fresh dilution, even as the fintech continues to report record revenue, rising profits, and a sharply upgraded 2025 outlook. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, the new share sale, Wall Street forecasts, and the competing bull and bear cases around SoFi stock as of December 5, 2025.

SoFi stock today: red‑hot run meets a dilution speed bump

SoFi closed regular trading on Thursday, December 4, at $29.60, up about 1.8% on the day, before the new offering news hit. ^[2]

After the announcement, the stock:

Traded around $28.64 in extended hours, down just over 3% from the close. ^[3]
Briefly fell below $28, with several outlets reporting a 5–6% after-hours decline as investors reacted to the dilution. ^[4]

Despite the pullback, SoFi remains one of 2025’s standout fintech names:

Year‑to‑date, the stock is up roughly 92%, and about 89% over the last 12 months, according to Barron’s. ^[5]
Since late 2022, Tech Buzz estimates that SOFI is up more than sixfold, helped by improving profitability and renewed investor appetite for high‑growth fintech. ^[6]

That kind of performance is exactly why SoFi can raise billions in fresh equity — but also why some analysts argue the stock’s valuation has sprinted ahead of its fundamentals.

Another $1.5 billion share sale — the second one this year

The new December 2025 offering

On December 4, SoFi announced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion of common stock, including a 30‑day option for the underwriter to purchase up to an additional 15% of the shares. ^[7]

On December 5, the company priced that deal:

54,545,454 shares of common stock
Offering price:$27.50 per share
Gross proceeds: about $1.5 billion, before underwriting fees and expenses ^[8]

The offering is expected to close on December 8, 2025, subject to customary conditions. ^[9]

MarketWatch estimates that the deal was priced at roughly a 7% discount to Thursday’s $29.60 close, helping explain the swift after‑hours selloff as traders priced in dilution. ^[10]

In its filings and press materials, SoFi says it plans to use the cash for general corporate purposes — a catch‑all that includes strengthening its capital position, increasing balance‑sheet flexibility, and funding incremental growth and business opportunities. ^[11]

A repeat performance: the July 2025 equity raise

This is not SoFi’s first large share sale in 2025.

On July 29, 2025, the company priced a separate $1.5 billion offering, selling 71,942,450 shares at $20.85 per share, again with an underwriter option for additional shares. ^[12]

Put together, SoFi has now:

Raised roughly $3 billion in gross proceeds from two secondary offerings in 2025.
Issued about 126.5 million new shares (before any underwriter options), combining the July and December deals. ^[13]

As of October 31, 2025, SoFi’s 10‑Q reported about 1.206 billion shares outstanding. ^[14]

That means:

The July offering is largely already reflected in today’s share count.
The December offering, once closed, would add another ~4–5% to the share base on top of that.

For a stock that’s already surged and is trading above most published analyst targets, that incremental dilution is a central point of contention.

Fundamentals: record Q3 2025 growth and upgraded guidance

The equity raises are happening against a backdrop of strong operating momentum.

Q3 2025: record revenue, higher profits, fast member growth

In its October 28 Q3 2025 report, SoFi posted: ^[15]

Total net revenue:
- $961.6 million, up 38% year‑over‑year
GAAP net income:
- $139.4 million, up 129% YoY
Diluted EPS:
- $0.11, up from $0.05 a year earlier
Adjusted net revenue:
- $949.6 million, also up 38% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA:
- $276.9 million, a 49% YoY increase

Growth isn’t just financial; it’s also user‑level:

SoFi added a record 905,000 new members in Q3, bringing total members to 12.6 million, up 35% from a year ago. ^[16]
It added 1.4 million new products, taking total products to 18.6 million, up 36% YoY. ^[17]
Fee‑based revenue reached about $408.7 million, up 50%, reflecting growth in its tech and “capital‑light” businesses such as Galileo and its Loan Platform Business. ^[18]

SoFi also highlighted that cross‑buy — existing members adding more products — hit its highest level since 2022, with around 40% of new products opened by existing customers. ^[19]

Q2 2025: momentum already building

Q2 2025, reported in July, showed similar strength and set up the Q3 beat: ^[20]

Net revenue:$854.9 million, up 43% YoY
GAAP net income:$97.3 million, compared with $17.4 million a year earlier
Diluted EPS:$0.08, versus $0.01 in Q2 2024
Adjusted net revenue:$858.2 million, up 44%

SoFi added 850,000 members in Q2 (to 11.7 million) and 1.26 million products (to 17.1 million), with fee‑based revenue again hitting record highs. ^[21]

Full‑year 2025 outlook: guidance raised

Off the back of Q3, SoFi raised its 2025 outlook. According to the company and Wall Street Journal reporting, management now expects: ^[22]

Adjusted net revenue: about $3.54 billion for 2025, ~36% growth year‑over‑year and roughly $165 million above prior guidance.
Adjusted net income: about $455 million, or $0.37 per share, up from prior guidance of $370 million ($0.31 per share).

MarketBeat notes that Q3 EPS of $0.11 topped consensus estimates of $0.09, and adjusted revenue of about $949.6 million beat expectations of roughly $880 million. ^[23]

Taken together, SoFi has:

Multiple consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability (after its first profitable full year in 2024). ^[24]
Rapidly expanding fee‑based and platform revenue.
A clear strategy to be a “one‑stop digital financial services platform,” not just a lender. ^[25]

The big question is whether that growth justifies ongoing dilution and today’s valuation.

Wall Street’s SOFI stock forecast: consensus “Hold,” wide target range

Despite the strong business metrics, Wall Street is far from unanimous on where SoFi stock should trade next.

Consensus ratings and price targets

According to MarketBeat, based on 23 analysts over the last 12 months: ^[26]

Consensus rating:Hold
Ratings breakdown: 3 Sell, 12 Hold, 8 Buy
Average 12‑month price target:$24.88
Target range: $12 (low) to $38 (high)

That average target of $24.88 implies roughly 16% downside from Thursday’s $29.60 close.

Other aggregators tell a similar story, with small differences in methodology:

TipRanks shows an average target around $26.96, with 9 Buy, 12 Hold, 5 Sell ratings in the current month. ^[27]
FactSet data cited by MarketScreener pegs the mean target near $25.75, with an overall “Hold” stance. ^[28]

In other words, most analysts see SoFi as fairly to slightly overvalued at current levels, even if many remain impressed with the fundamentals.

Recent rating moves: from cautious to outright bullish

October and November brought a flurry of price‑target changes centered around SoFi’s Q3 beat:

Citigroup raised its SoFi target from $28 to $37 and reiterated a Buy rating, calling SoFi’s credit performance and third‑party (platform) momentum “hard to ignore.” ^[29]
Needham boosted its target to $36 with a Buy rating. ^[30]
JP Morgan set a $28 target, and Goldman Sachs stands around $27, reflecting more cautious views. ^[31]
UBS recently raised its target from $20.50 to $27.50, but kept a Neutral rating, saying the stock’s risk/reward is balanced at current levels. ^[32]
Truist Securities maintained a Hold but cut its target from $31 to $28 on November 25, noting limited upside after the rally. ^[33]

Summing up the Street:

The average target is below the current price.
The spread is huge — from very bearish ($12–$20) to very bullish ($36–$38).
Analysts agree SoFi is a genuine growth story, but disagree sharply on how much growth is already priced in.

December 5 analyses: dilution vs. growth

The new equity offering triggered fresh commentary early on December 5, with a clear split between cautious and optimistic takes.

Bearish view: $1.5B dilution raises red flags

A widely read Seeking Alpha piece published December 5 carries a “Strong Sell” rating on SoFi. Key points from that argument: ^[34]

SOFI’s share price has nearly doubled since late 2021, but EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2030 have moved lower (down roughly 36% and 25%, respectively, according to the author’s compilation).
The stock is facing strong technical resistance around $30, trading in a band of roughly $25–$30 despite big volatility.
The new $1.5 billion equity raise is seen as poorly timed given SoFi’s already strong balance sheet and cash position, heightening dilution concerns.
Ongoing insider selling is flagged as another red flag, reinforcing the view that management may see the stock as fully valued.

From this perspective, the December offering isn’t a simple “growth capital” story; it’s a signal that management might be taking advantage of an overheated share price, leaving late‑arriving shareholders holding the dilution bag.

More neutral–bullish view: opportunistic raise on top of strong fundamentals

By contrast, Tech Buzz paints a more balanced, growth‑focused picture: ^[35]

SoFi’s market cap has nearly doubled in 2025, and the stock is up over 600% since late 2022.
The company ended Q3 with about $3.25 billion in cash and equivalents, raising the question of why it needs another $1.5 billion — but also implying the raise is opportunistic, not defensive.
The article underscores SoFi’s 38% Q3 revenue growth to ~$961.6 million and more than doubling of net income, describing the fundamentals as “compelling.” ^[36]
Management says proceeds will support capital strength, optionality, and incremental growth investments, including expansion beyond lending and into areas like crypto trading and other tech‑driven services. ^[37]

Earlier in the year, a Barchart column also framed SoFi as a high‑growth fintech where pullbacks driven by offerings could be buying opportunities, pointing to strong Q2 results, raised guidance, and accelerating member growth. ^[38]

Together, these more optimistic analyses view dilution as a tool — painful in the short term but potentially accretive if SoFi can deploy the fresh capital into high‑return initiatives.

How big is the dilution really?

To understand the tug‑of‑war in sentiment, it helps to put the share issuance in context.

From recent filings and data providers: ^[39]

SoFi had around 1.2 billion common shares outstanding as of late October 2025.
The July 2025 offering added roughly 72 million shares, most of which are already reflected in that 1.2 billion figure. ^[40]
The December 2025 offering adds 54.5 million more shares, a roughly 4–5% increase in the share count once the deal closes. ^[41]

Taken by itself, a mid‑single‑digit percentage increase isn’t enormous for a company still growing revenue in the high‑30% range. The concern is cumulative: two $1.5 billion raises in five months signal that equity issuance may be a recurring part of SoFi’s playbook.

For shareholders, the trade‑off is simple:

Pros: more capital to fund new products, tech investments, and possibly acquisitions, while keeping leverage in check.
Cons: lower ownership percentage per share, and potentially lower EPS than would otherwise be the case in future years.

Whether this dilution is “worth it” depends on return on that new capital — something markets won’t be able to judge for several quarters.

Key risks and opportunities for SOFI from here

Opportunities

Sustained high growth
SoFi is guiding to roughly 36% adjusted revenue growth in 2025 and mid‑teens to 20s EPS growth beyond that, backed by strong user and product growth. ^[42]
Shift toward fee‑based, platform revenue
Segments like Galileo and the Loan Platform Business generate high‑margin fee income that’s less capital‑intensive than holding loans on the balance sheet, potentially improving returns on equity over time. ^[43]
Option value in new products (including crypto and AI‑powered tools)
SoFi is investing in crypto trading, robo‑advisory features, and AI‑driven tools like “Cash Coach,” which may deepen engagement and unlock cross‑selling opportunities. ^[44]
Balance‑sheet strength
With billions in cash and more on the way, SoFi has room to maneuver through credit cycles and regulatory changes without relying heavily on debt markets. ^[45]

Risks

Valuation vs. consensus forecasts
With the stock trading around $29–30, well above the mid‑$20s average analyst price targets, investors are already paying up for growth. ^[46]
Dilution overhang
Two large offerings in one year have sharpened focus on share count and EPS dilution. Further equity raises in 2026 would likely be met with increasing skepticism. ^[47]
Macro and credit risk
SoFi’s lending businesses still rely on consumer credit quality and interest‑rate spreads. A turn in the credit cycle or a spike in funding costs could pressure margins and loan growth. ^[48]
Regulatory and competition risk
SoFi operates at the intersection of banking, brokerage, and crypto, areas with evolving regulation and intense competition from both large banks and other fintechs. ^[49]

What the December 2025 news means for SOFI investors

As of December 5, 2025, the SoFi story looks like a classic high‑growth fintech crossroads:

The business: growing revenue close to 40% a year, adding members at a record pace, profitable on a GAAP basis, and raising full‑year guidance. ^[50]
The balance sheet: strong enough that the new equity looks opportunistic rather than desperate. ^[51]
The stock: up nearly 100% in 2025, trading above most analysts’ price targets, and now facing a modest but very visible new wave of dilution. ^[52]
The Street: officially “Hold” on average, but deeply polarized — from Strong Sell calls focused on dilution and valuation, to aggressive Buy targets in the high‑$30s that assume continued outperformance. ^[53]

For existing and prospective shareholders, the key variables to watch over the next few quarters will be:

How quickly SoFi deploys the new $1.5 billion and whether those investments visibly boost growth or profitability metrics.
Whether EPS and revenue estimates for 2026–2027 stabilize or continue to drift lower even as the share price remains elevated. ^[54]
The pace of additional member and product growth, which underpins the longer‑term platform thesis.

References

Meta Platforms (META) Stock Surges as Metaverse Spending Is Slashed and AI Strategy Accelerates

Oklo (OKLO) Stock on December 5, 2025: $1.5 Billion Equity Plan, Nuclear AI Boom and 2026 Forecasts

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Stock: Netflix Wins Bidding War – What the $70 Billion Deal Could Mean for Investors

SMX (Security Matters) Stock Soars Over 1,000% in Two Weeks: $111.5M Deal, Gold Bet and High‑Risk Outlook – 5 December 2025