SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) is heading into mid-December with a familiar mix of excitement and skepticism: strong operating momentum, expanding product ambitions, and a stock that’s cooled off after a blockbuster 2025 run.
As of the latest available pricing, SOFI closed at $25.82 after a sharp one-day drop of about 5.4%, with pre-market trading showing only modest additional movement early on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025. [1]
That pullback is happening against a busy backdrop of “real” company news (a large equity offering, new consumer products, and expansion moves in investing and crypto) and “market narrative” news (valuation debates, ETF flows, and S&P 500 inclusion chatter). Here’s what’s new as of Dec. 16, 2025, and how investors are sizing up SoFi’s 2026 setup.
What’s moving SoFi stock right now
1) The $1.5 billion share offering is still echoing through the tape
The biggest near-term driver for SOFI shares has been dilution concerns after SoFi priced a large underwritten public offering earlier this month.
SoFi said it priced 54,545,454 shares at $27.50 per share for gross proceeds of roughly $1.5 billion, and granted underwriters an option to buy up to 8,181,818 additional shares. The company said it intends to use proceeds for general corporate purposes, including strengthening its capital position and funding growth opportunities. [2]
In plain English: SoFi sold stock while the stock was strong—smart corporate finance in many cases—but it can pressure the share price in the short run because the ownership pie is being cut into more slices.
Market commentary published on Dec. 16 also points to the offering as a key reason the stock has struggled to regain momentum, noting the announcement triggered a notable drop when revealed earlier in the month. [3]
2) A high-growth story… with a “high-expectations” valuation
Even with strong results, SoFi is now large enough—and its stock is high enough—that expectations matter as much as execution.
A Dec. 16 analysis highlights that SoFi is trading at a relatively rich forward earnings multiple compared with larger, more mature fintech peers, and argues that after the big 2025 rally, a repeat “straight up” year in 2026 may be harder unless growth stays impressive. [4]
3) Selling pressure and positioning headlines (including ARK ETF activity)
Short-term stock moves often have less to do with the app, the products, or even the earnings report—and more to do with who’s buying and selling this week.
One widely circulated Dec. 16 market take notes that Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs have recently reduced exposure to SOFI, potentially weighing on near-term performance. [5]
Separately, a Dec. 16 filing-focused item flagged that an investment adviser trimmed its stake, while also summarizing broader institutional ownership stats and recent analyst target updates. [6]
None of this is destiny, but it helps explain why SoFi can feel “fundamentals up, stock sideways.”
SoFi’s fundamentals: what the company is saying (and delivering)
The reason SoFi continues to attract attention is that the underlying business has been putting up big numbers—especially in member growth, product adoption, and profitability.
Record Q3 performance and raised 2025 guidance
In its Q3 2025 results, SoFi reported (among other highlights):
- GAAP net revenue of $961.6 million, up 38% year-over-year
- Net income of $139.4 million
- Total members exceeding 12.6 million (up 35% year-over-year)
- Total products near 18.6 million (up 36% year-over-year) [7]
Crucially, management also raised full-year 2025 guidance. The company said it expects:
- At least 3.5 million new members in 2025
- Adjusted net revenue ~ $3.54 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA ~ $1.035 billion
- Adjusted net income ~ $455 million
- Adjusted EPS ~ $0.37 [8]
That combination—fast growth plus improving profitability—is the core of the bull case. And it’s why the stock surged earlier this year even while many fintech names struggled to win investor confidence.
The latest analyst forecasts and price targets for SOFI
Wall Street’s stance on SoFi, as of mid-December, can be summarized in one word: mixed.
Consensus view: “Hold,” with targets clustering around the mid-to-high $20s
Data aggregators tracking analyst coverage show:
- A consensus “Hold” rating
- An average price target around $24.70 (with targets ranging from $12 to $37) [9]
Another widely referenced summary lists a MarketBeat consensus rating of “Hold” with a consensus target price near $25.69, while also noting that targets among individual firms vary substantially. [10]
Earnings growth expectations: a key battleground for 2026
The Dec. 16 market debate isn’t really about whether SoFi can grow—it’s about how much growth is already priced in.
A Dec. 16 analysis cites sell-side expectations for EPS of about $0.37 this year and around $0.58 in 2026 (roughly a mid-to-high double-digit increase), and argues that if SoFi keeps beating expectations, the market may tolerate a premium valuation. [11]
If those earnings ramps materialize, 2026 becomes less about “will SoFi survive?” and more about “how big can it get, and what multiple will the market pay for it?”
“Could SoFi join the S&P 500?” — why that rumor keeps resurfacing
One of the more persistent December narratives is the idea that SoFi could eventually be added to the S&P 500—a move that can trigger forced buying from index funds and benchmarks.
A Dec. 3 note summarized by Investing.com said Truist believes it’s possible that SoFi (SOFI)—along with Affirm (AFRM) and Toast (TOST)—could be added to the index “in the near future.” [12]
This isn’t an announcement, and it’s not guaranteed. But it matters because it’s the kind of “market structure” catalyst that can move a stock even if the business is simply executing normally.
The “product and platform” news that’s shaping SoFi’s 2026 storyline
SoFi’s strategy has long been to become a one-stop financial app—borrow, save, spend, invest—then deepen engagement with more products. In the past week, SoFi has added several high-visibility proof points.
SoFi Smart Card launches (debit rewards + high-yield tie-in)
On Dec. 10, 2025, SoFi announced the SoFi Smart Card, positioned as an all-in-one account aimed at improving spending control and rewards, including headline perks like grocery cash-back rewards and a tie-in to savings yields for eligible members. [13]
Whether this becomes a meaningful revenue driver is a longer-term question—but it supports SoFi’s broader goal: increase daily engagement and “primary financial institution” behavior.
Private-market investing access via Templum (Epic Games + Stripe window)
On Dec. 9, 2025, Templum and SoFi announced a limited window that allows accredited investors to access private market exposure tied to Epic Games and Stripe through a fund structure, with the window running through mid-December. [14]
Again, this is less about one offering and more about reinforcing SoFi Invest as a platform where members can do more than just buy index ETFs.
Crypto is back at SoFi—and now it’s tied to bigger ambitions (stablecoin + blockchain transfers)
This is one of the most consequential recent shifts in SoFi’s growth narrative, because it touches product differentiation, regulatory risk, and potential new revenue streams.
SoFi relaunched crypto trading inside its bank ecosystem
On Nov. 11, 2025, SoFi said SoFi Bank became the first and only nationally chartered bank to launch crypto trading for consumers (per its announcement), positioning the rollout as part of a broader plan to integrate blockchain across its ecosystem. [15]
Reuters also reported that SoFi rolled out crypto trading as demand and regulatory posture shifted, and said SoFi is on track to launch its own U.S.-dollar-pegged stablecoin and integrate crypto into lending and infrastructure services. [16]
Stablecoin and blockchain remittances: not just “crypto trading,” but infrastructure
SoFi’s own release on the crypto rollout explicitly points to plans to introduce a USD stablecoin and to weave crypto into lending and infrastructure to enable lower-cost borrowing, faster payments, and embedded finance capabilities. [17]
On the payments side, SoFi also announced earlier this year that it partnered with Lightspark to power blockchain-enabled international money transfers. [18]
From an investor lens, the interesting question isn’t “will people trade Bitcoin in the app?” It’s whether SoFi can turn blockchain rails into a defensible advantage (cost, speed, convenience) without stepping on the regulatory rake that has whacked so many fintechs before.
Risks investors are watching into 2026
Even optimistic investors tend to agree on the main risk buckets—because they’re the same ones that have historically driven SoFi volatility.
Dilution and capital strategy questions
The December offering strengthened SoFi’s financial flexibility, but shareholders will keep asking: Was the raise primarily opportunistic, or was it necessary for regulatory or growth reasons? The answer affects how investors interpret future raises. [19]
Credit risk (especially personal loans)
SoFi’s personal lending engine is a major earnings driver, and credit trends can swing quickly if the economy weakens. Market commentary in mid-December flags that rising consumer stress would be a meaningful valuation and earnings risk for lenders. [20]
Regulation (especially crypto)
SoFi’s crypto return is happening as U.S. rules and guidance continue to evolve. That can be supportive, but it can also change quickly—and compliance is not optional when you’re a regulated bank. [21]
Key dates and catalysts to watch next
Next earnings: late January / early February 2026 is the window investors are circling
SoFi hasn’t universally confirmed a specific date across all sources, but multiple market calendars and tracking sites place the next earnings report in late January to early February 2026 (with estimates clustering around Jan. 26 through Feb. 2). [22]
2026 themes that could matter most for SOFI stock
Going into the new year, the market is likely to focus on:
- Whether SoFi can sustain strong member growth while keeping marketing efficiency intact
- Continued growth in fee-based revenue (investing, card interchange, platform services) versus pure lending dependence [23]
- Evidence that the post-offering share count increase translates into higher long-term earnings power, not just a bigger balance sheet [24]
- Progress on crypto rollout, stablecoin roadmap, and blockchain-based transfer capabilities [25]
- Any fresh developments around S&P 500 inclusion speculation [26]
Bottom line for Dec. 16: SoFi’s 2026 setup is about execution meeting expectations
SoFi stock is no longer priced like a turnaround story. It’s priced like a high-growth financial platform—which means the company can be doing great and the stock can still stall if the market decides “great” was already baked in.
The next phase for SOFI shareholders looks less like a hype cycle and more like an engineering test: can SoFi keep compounding members, products, and earnings—while expanding into crypto, payments infrastructure, and new consumer financial tools—without losing credit discipline or regulatory footing?
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. investors.sofi.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. investors.sofi.com, 8. investors.sofi.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. investors.sofi.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. investors.sofi.com, 18. investors.sofi.com, 19. investors.sofi.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.optionslam.com, 23. investors.sofi.com, 24. investors.sofi.com, 25. investors.sofi.com, 26. www.investing.com
