SoFi Stock (SOFI) on December 6, 2025: Share Sale Shock, Crypto Pivot and 2030 Forecast Explained

As of the close on December 5, 2025, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) finished at $27.78, down about 6% on the day after unveiling a $1.5 billion common stock offering. ^[1]

Even after that hit, SoFi stock is still up roughly 80–90% in 2025, depending on the time window you use, with several outlets citing year‑to‑date gains above 90%. ^[2] At the same time, the company has:

• Posted record Q3 2025 revenue and its eighth straight profitable quarter, ^[3]
• Relaunched SoFi Crypto, becoming the first nationally chartered U.S. bank to offer consumer crypto trading, ^[4]
• And attracted growing skepticism that SOFI shares now trade ahead of fundamentals, with some valuation models flagging the stock as over 200% overvalued. ^[5]

Here’s a deep dive into SoFi’s latest news, forecasts and analysis as of December 6, 2025 — and what it all might mean for SOFI stock over the next few years.

SoFi stock price today: from breakout to pullback

• Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $27.78
• Intraday range: roughly $26.96 – $27.98
• Move on the day: about –6%, driven by the new equity offering. ^[6]

Earlier in the week, SoFi traded near $29.60 and, at points, around $32, marking fresh all‑time highs before the pullback. ^[7] Heavy volume on Friday — more than 135 million shares, over double recent daily averages — underscores how actively the market is repricing the stock around the offering. ^[8]

Despite the sell‑off, multiple outlets still describe 2025 as a blockbuster year for SoFi: one‑year gains around 81%, year‑to‑date performance over 90%, and outperformance versus broader fintech peers. ^[9]

The $1.5 billion question: what the new share sale really means

Deal terms and dilution math

On December 4, 2025, SoFi announced it had priced a public offering of:

• 54,545,454 new common shares
• At $27.50 per share
• For gross proceeds of about $1.5 billion, before fees
• With a 30‑day option for underwriters to buy up to 8,181,818 additional shares at the same price. ^[10]

Lead underwriters include Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Mizuho. ^[11] The offering is expected to close on December 8, 2025, subject to customary conditions. ^[12]

SoFi plans to use the proceeds for “general corporate purposes” — strengthening its capital position, increasing balance‑sheet flexibility, and funding additional growth opportunities. ^[13]

Given SoFi’s market cap of roughly $35 billion, the new shares represent a notable but not catastrophic dilution of existing holders. ^[14] If the underwriters exercise the full option, total issuance climbs above 62 million shares, amplifying that effect.

Why investors are spooked

The market’s reaction — a 6–9% single‑day drop depending on the intraday snapshot — tells you the story: investors are uneasy about dilution and timing. ^[15]

Key concerns highlighted across coverage:

• Second major equity raise in six months: SoFi raised a similar $1.5 billion in July, making this the second large share sale in two quarters. ^[16]
• Stock priced near all‑time highs: Analysts at KBW and others describe the move as “opportunistic”, taking advantage of a strong share price to top up capital. ^[17]
• Capital strategy questions: Repeated equity raises, instead of leaning more on retained earnings or non‑dilutive financing, invite scrutiny of SoFi’s balance‑sheet planning and risk appetite. ^[18]

On the flip side, bulls note that raising capital while the stock is strong can be accretive over time if the funds drive high‑return growth and de‑risk the balance sheet. ^[19]

Fundamentals: record Q3 2025 and a profitable growth story

Before the offering news, SoFi’s Q3 2025 earnings were the main driver of the 2025 rally.

From SoFi’s own results:

• Total GAAP net revenue:$961.6 million, up 38% year‑over‑year. ^[20]
• GAAP net income:$139.4 million, up 129% from the prior year. ^[21]
• Diluted EPS:$0.11, more than double the $0.05 in Q3 2024, beating Street estimates. ^[22]
• Adjusted EBITDA:$276.9 million, up 49%, with a margin of about 29%. ^[23]

Crucially, Q3 marked SoFi’s eighth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, a milestone for a business that only recently left the “loss‑making fintech” bucket. ^[24]

Member and product growth

SoFi’s user metrics back up the earnings story:

• +905,000 new members in Q3 alone — a company record — bringing total members above 12.6 million, up 35% year‑over‑year. ^[25]
• +1.4 million new products, for 18.6 million total products, also up 36% year‑over‑year. ^[26]
• Financial services products (money, relay, investing, etc.) grew 37% and accounted for 88% of total product growth, showing how the “one‑app ecosystem” is gaining traction. ^[27]

Segment‑level highlights include:

• Financial Services segment revenue:$419.6 million, up 76% YoY, with strong contribution margin expansion. ^[28]
• Technology Platform (Galileo/Technisys): revenue up 12%, with solid but slightly compressing contribution margins. ^[29]

Analysts at MarketBeat and others note that SoFi beat Q3 expectations on both revenue and EPS and guided to full‑year 2025 EPS of roughly $0.37, reinforcing the profitability inflection narrative. ^[30]

SoFi’s crypto pivot: a new growth engine or added risk?

The other huge story around SOFI in late 2025 is crypto.

In November 2025, SoFi:

• Launched “SoFi Crypto” inside its banking app,
• Becoming the first and only nationally chartered U.S. bank to offer retail customers fully integrated crypto trading. ^[31]
• Allows members to buy, sell and hold dozens of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). ^[32]
• Plans to roll out access to essentially all 12.6 million SoFi customers by year‑end 2025. ^[33]

Coverage from Reuters and others frames this as a regulatory milestone: SoFi is exploiting fresh guidance that lets certain banks provide crypto services under strict oversight, and management has openly discussed plans for a USD‑pegged stablecoin, crypto‑backed lending and deeper blockchain integration. ^[34]

On top of crypto, SoFi has also:

• Launched an AI‑focused actively managed ETF,
• Rolled out Level 1 options trading inside SoFi Invest,
• And tied up with Lightspark to use blockchain rails for cross‑border money transfers. ^[35]

From a stock perspective, these moves feed the “innovation premium” argument: SoFi isn’t just a lender; it’s trying to become a full‑stack financial platform with embedded crypto and modern infrastructure.

But they also magnify regulatory and volatility risk — especially for a business that now operates as a regulated bank. TechStock²+2SoFi+2

What Wall Street thinks: ratings, targets and valuation tension

If you look across major data providers, the message is surprisingly consistent:

Consensus rating: Neutral / Hold

• Investing.com: “Neutral” rating; 17 analysts, with 6 Buy, 11 Hold, 4 Sell. ^[36]
• MarketBeat: Consensus “Hold”, based on 23 analysts. ^[37]
• StockAnalysis: 15 analysts, consensus “Hold”. ^[38]
• TipRanks: 28 analysts in the current month: 9 Buy, 14 Hold, 5 Sell. ^[39]
• MarketWatch: Average recommendation: Hold across 24 ratings. ^[40]

In short, the Street broadly agrees SoFi is no longer an obvious bargain, even if many still like the long‑term story.

Price targets: mid‑20s, slightly below today

Most aggregated 12‑month SOFI price targets cluster just below the current share price:

• $24.7 average at StockAnalysis (–11% implied downside). ^[41]
• $24.88 average at MarketBeat (–10.4% implied downside from ~$27.78), with a range of $12 to $38. ^[42]
• Around $27.0 average at Investing.com, with high $38 and low $12. ^[43]
• $27.68 average target at MarketWatch. ^[44]
• 24/7 Wall St cites a Wall Street consensus of $26.97, again just under spot. ^[45]

The takeaway: most analysts see limited upside over the next year from current levels, even after Friday’s pullback.

Longer-term SoFi stock forecasts to 2030

Individual shops naturally disagree, but one of the clearer long‑horizon breakdowns comes from 24/7 Wall St:

• They project revenue rising from about $2.84 billion in 2025 to $5.34 billion by 2030, with steadily climbing net income and EPS. ^[46]
• Using a 3.5x price‑to‑sales multiple, they arrive at a 2030 price estimate of $55.30, roughly 87% above today’s level. ^[47]
• Their year‑by‑year price path:
  • 2025: $29.41 (basically flat vs now)
  • 2026: $35.70
  • 2027: $39.26
  • 2028: $44.85
  • 2029: $50.12
  • 2030: $55.30 ^[48]

That’s a moderately bullish, execution‑dependent scenario: strong growth, sustained profitability and a stable valuation multiple.

By contrast, Simply Wall St’s Excess Returns / DCF framework is far more cautious:

• Their model suggests SoFi is trading about 211.9% above intrinsic value — in other words, they see the stock as significantly overvalued at current prices. ^[49]
• They estimate SoFi’s current P/E around 55.7x, versus roughly 10x for the broader consumer finance industry and about 41.7x for a peer group. ^[50]
• Their “Fair Ratio” framework pegs a more normal P/E closer to 26.4x, implying that today’s multiples bake in very optimistic assumptions about growth and risk. ^[51]

Those two frameworks bracket the debate nicely: solid business momentum, but a valuation that might already be pricing in a lot of good news.

Technical and trading sentiment: momentum with “high risk” label

Short‑term technical coverage (summarised in TS2’s December 4 round‑up) paints SoFi as:

• Trading in a “very wide and weak rising trend” in the short term,
• With both short‑ and long‑term moving averages still flashing buy signals,
• But flagged as “high risk” because typical daily swings exceed 3%. TechStock²+1

One model cited by TS2 (from StockInvest.us) projects:

• About 7% average upside over the next three months,
• With a 90% probability range roughly between $27 and $35. TechStock²+1

MarketBeat notes that Thursday’s move higher came on below‑average volume, while Friday’s drop came on well‑above‑average volume, suggesting the equity raise was a clear sentiment shock. ^[52]

Bull case for SoFi stock

Putting the latest research together, you can frame the bullish thesis like this:

1. Profitable, high‑growth platform
   • Revenue up ~38% year‑over‑year; net income more than doubled; eight straight profitable quarters. ^[53]
   • Operating leverage is improving: adjusted EBITDA up ~49% with nearly 30% margin. ^[54]
2. Ecosystem and cross‑sell flywheel
   • Rapid member and product growth, with financial services products driving most of the new activity. ^[55]
   • Management’s “Financial Services Productivity Loop” aims to increase products per customer and lifetime value, echoing what 24/7 Wall St calls a scalable, improving margin story. ^[56]
3. Regulated crypto leadership
   • SoFi is first among nationally chartered banks to offer consumer crypto trading, under the same umbrella as checking, savings and lending — a differentiator versus pure‑play exchanges and traditional banks. ^[57]
   • Plans for a USD stablecoin, crypto‑backed borrowing and further blockchain integrations could open new revenue streams if regulation remains constructive. ^[58]
4. Index and institutional catalysts
   • Several analysts and commentators argue that SoFi now meets key S&P 500 inclusion criteria (U.S. listing, profitability, market cap in the tens of billions), making future index inclusion a real — if unpredictable — catalyst. ^[59]
   • Institutional investors, including Norges Bank and multiple funds, have been reported adding to positions through 2025. TechStock²+224/7 Wall St.+2
5. Long‑term upside if execution continues
   • Forecasts like 24/7 Wall St’s see potential for roughly 80–90% upside by 2030, assuming revenue keeps compounding and margins expand. ^[60]

Bear case for SoFi stock

The bearish or cautious view focuses less on the business quality and more on valuation, risk and capital strategy:

1. Rich valuation vs peers and models
   • P/E in the mid‑50s, vs ~10x for the industry and ~42x for peers, according to Simply Wall St. ^[61]
   • Their intrinsic value model suggests the stock could be overvalued by more than 200% at current levels. ^[62]
   • Multiple consensus sources put 12‑month price targets in the mid‑20s, implying flat or slightly negative expected returns from here. ^[63]
2. Repeated dilution and capital questions
   • Two $1.5 billion equity raises in about six months signal that management is comfortable issuing stock rather than relying more heavily on retained profits or debt. ^[64]
   • Commentators argue the move “tests valuation” after a big rally and may cap upside if investors fear further dilution. ^[65]
3. Credit, macro and rate sensitivity
   • SoFi still runs a substantial consumer lending book; any deterioration in credit quality or a sharp slowdown could pressure earnings. TechStock²+1
   • Net interest margins and loan demand remain sensitive to interest‑rate expectations, even as fee and platform revenue grow. TechStock²+1
4. Regulatory and crypto risk
   • Integrating crypto deeply into a regulated banking stack invites extra scrutiny from banking regulators and politicians, especially if digital‑asset markets wobble again. ^[66]
5. Insider selling and sentiment
   • TS2 and other trackers note ongoing insider share sales and Form 144 filings; while not unusual after a big run, persistent selling can weigh on sentiment. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

Put bluntly, the bear case isn’t “SoFi is a bad business.” It’s: SoFi might be a great business at a demanding price.

Key SoFi numbers investors are watching (December 6, 2025)

Bringing it together, here are the headline metrics many SoFi watchers are tracking today:

• Share price: ~$27.78
• Market cap: about $35 billion. ^[67]
• 2025 performance: ~80–90% share‑price gain depending on the time frame. ^[68]
• Q3 2025 revenue:$961.6 million, +38% YoY. ^[69]
• Q3 2025 net income:$139.4 million, +129% YoY. ^[70]
• Total members:12.6 million, +35% YoY. ^[71]
• Total products:18.6 million, +36% YoY. ^[72]
• Analyst consensus rating: broadly Hold / Neutral. ^[73]
• Analyst 12‑month target range:
  • Low: $12
  • Average cluster: $24–27
  • High: $37–38. ^[74]

What to watch next for SoFi stock

In the coming weeks and months, the main catalysts for SOFI investors and traders include:

1. Closing of the share offering (expected Dec 8, 2025)
   • Final deal size (including or excluding the underwriters’ option).
   • Any commentary from management on how quickly they plan to deploy the capital. ^[75]
2. Adoption metrics for SoFi Crypto
   • User uptake, trading volumes and revenue contribution as the rollout reaches more of SoFi’s 12.6 million members. ^[76]
3. Next earnings report (likely late January 2026)
   • Whether SoFi can hit or beat its raised 2025 guidance and provide a convincing 2026 outlook. TechStock²+2SoFi Investors+2
4. Any hints on S&P 500 inclusion
   • Index committee decisions are opaque, but any sign that SoFi is under consideration could be a major volume and visibility catalyst. ^[77]
5. Macro, rates and credit quality
   • The path of interest rates and consumer credit performance will feed directly into SoFi’s lending economics and growth appetite. ^[78]

Bottom line: SoFi stock on December 6, 2025

As of today, SoFi stock sits right where the story gets interesting:

• The business is clearly improving: revenue and profits are rising fast, member engagement is deepening, and SoFi is pushing the frontier of what a regulated digital bank can do with crypto and modern infrastructure. ^[79]
• The stock, however, already reflects a lot of that success: soaring YTD performance, premium valuation multiples, and consensus targets that mostly sit around or below the current price. ^[80]

Whether SOFI is attractive from here depends heavily on your risk tolerance and time horizon:

• If you believe SoFi can sustain high‑30% revenue growth, expanding margins and successful crypto integration, long‑term forecasts like those from 24/7 Wall St sketch out a path to meaningful upside by 2030. ^[81]
• If you worry about valuation, dilution and macro/credit risk, models like Simply Wall St’s and much of the Street’s neutral stance suggest the risk/reward may be finely balanced for now. ^[82]

Either way, SoFi has firmly graduated from speculative newcomer to widely watched financial stock. The real debate now is not whether the business works — it’s whether the current price fairly reflects how well it might work over the next five years.

References

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