SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) ends 2025 with a familiar mix of fintech drama and bank-like execution: rapid member growth, multiple quarters of GAAP profitability, and a fresh push into blockchain infrastructure—paired with the kind of share dilution that makes markets reach for their smelling salts.
Because U.S. markets are closed on Dec. 25 (Christmas Day), the most recent trade data is from Dec. 24, 2025, when SOFI last traded around $27.48.
Below is a roundup of the latest material news, the most-cited forecasts, and the dominant bull vs. bear arguments circulating into Dec. 25, 2025.
SOFI stock today: where shares stand heading into year-end
SoFi shares were last indicated around $27.48 on Dec. 24, after trading roughly between $27.05 and $27.50 during the session.
That year-end level matters because it’s sitting right on top of a major storyline from early December: SoFi priced a large equity offering at $27.50, effectively creating a very visible “reference point” for investors debating valuation, dilution, and management’s capital strategy. [1]
Biggest late-December headline: SoFi launches SoFiUSD stablecoin
On Dec. 18, 2025, SoFi announced the launch of SoFiUSD, describing it as a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. and positioning the company as a stablecoin infrastructure provider for banks, fintechs, and enterprise platforms. [2]
What SoFi says SoFiUSD is designed to do
SoFi’s announcement frames SoFiUSD less like a “retail crypto toy” and more like plumbing for money movement: faster settlement, always-on rails, and a product that can be used by partners rather than only SoFi’s consumer base. [3]
Several outlets emphasized the same theme:
- Barron’s described SoFiUSD as a dollar-pegged stablecoin aimed especially at commercial clients, with broader consumer rollout “coming soon.” [4]
- Investors.com highlighted the “fully reserved” structure and reported it is backed 1:1 by cash with “immediate redemption” messaging. [5]
- Fintech Futures similarly framed it as stablecoin infrastructure that other institutions can plug into, with SoFi again making the “first national bank…” claim. [6]
Stablecoin… or tokenized deposit in disguise?
A particularly interesting angle came from Finovate, which argued that SoFiUSD’s cash-only backing and on-demand redemption makes it resemble a tokenized bank deposit in practice—an important distinction because “deposit-like” products often imply different regulatory and risk expectations than typical non-bank stablecoins. [7]
And CoinDesk added a detail that many mainstream equity investors care about: it described SoFiUSD as backed 1:1 by cash held at the Federal Reserve and issued by SoFi’s FDIC-insured national bank—a framing that, if accurate, would differentiate SoFi from many stablecoin issuers that operate outside the banking system. [8]
Why this matters for SOFI stock: Investors aren’t just pricing “crypto hype” here—they’re pricing the possibility that SoFi becomes a regulated, bank-grade provider of tokenized dollars to other institutions. If that ecosystem actually scales, it could tilt sentiment around SoFi’s long-term revenue mix toward fee-based, platform-style income, which markets usually value differently than credit-heavy lending.
The dilution shock: SoFi’s $1.5B stock offering and why it spooked the market
Earlier in December, SoFi announced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion in common stock and stated proceeds would support general corporate purposes, including enhancing capital position and funding incremental growth opportunities. [9]
Shortly after, SoFi priced the deal: 54,545,454 shares at $27.50 for gross proceeds of about $1.5 billion (before fees/expenses). [10]
Why shares sold off even though the company is profitable
The market’s reaction was straightforward: more shares = dilution, at least in the near term. Multiple reports noted the offering surprised investors because it was SoFi’s second major capital raise in roughly six months, which naturally raises questions like: Is management being opportunistic… or is the business more capital-hungry than bulls admit? [11]
Investopedia reported that SoFi’s share sale “caught investors and analysts off guard,” calling it the company’s second in six months, and pointed to commentary that the raise looked opportunistic given how close the stock had been to recent highs. [12]
Meanwhile MarketWatch framed the move as coming amid a very strong 2025 run for the stock, with investors wary that a big raise near highs can signal “management thinks this is a good price to sell.” [13]
Bottom line: This offering is one of the most important “near-term gravity” factors on SOFI’s chart and sentiment—because it forces a debate about capital strategy, not just product growth.
The other big 2025 storyline: SoFi’s crypto comeback (SoFi Crypto + regulatory tailwinds)
SoFi’s stablecoin launch didn’t happen in isolation. In November, the company re-entered retail crypto trading with SoFi Crypto, after pausing crypto services in 2023 during its path to a national bank charter.
SoFi’s own release described SoFi Bank as the “first and only nationally chartered, FDIC insured bank to offer crypto trading to consumers” on a “bank‑grade” platform. [14]
Reuters added key context: it reported SoFi cited clearer guidance from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in spring 2025, and also described a broader regulatory shift under the Trump administration that reduced some barriers for banks exploring crypto services. [15]
Industry coverage echoed the same theme—that SoFi is trying to combine banking and crypto in one regulated app experience. [16]
Why this matters for SOFI stock: Crypto trading alone may not be the earnings driver; the bigger equity-market question is whether SoFi can use crypto + stablecoins to expand (1) fee revenue, (2) institutional infrastructure opportunities, and (3) member engagement without introducing blow-up risk.
Fundamentals check: Q3 2025 showed scale, profitability, and a bigger fee engine
The most recent full quarterly results on the tape are SoFi’s Q3 2025 report (released Oct. 28, 2025). Among the headline numbers:
- GAAP net revenue:$961.6M, up 38% year over year
- GAAP net income:$139.4M
- Diluted EPS:$0.11
- Adjusted EBITDA:$276.9M (29% margin) [17]
SoFi also emphasized it had delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. [18]
The growth engine: members and products
SoFi reported:
- 905,000 members added in Q3 (record), taking total members above 12.6M
- 1.4M product additions (record), reaching nearly 18.6M total products [19]
The mix shift: fee-based revenue and the Loan Platform Business
One of the more market-relevant details: SoFi highlighted record fee-based revenue of $408.7M (+50% YoY). [20]
It also disclosed that its Loan Platform Business added $167.9M to consolidated adjusted net revenue, driven largely by $3.4B of personal loans originated for third parties and referrals. [21]
Why equity investors care: If SoFi can keep growing “platform-like” fee streams, it potentially reduces the perception that SOFI is “just” a lender with a fintech wrapper.
Updated 2025 outlook (guidance)
After Q3, SoFi raised its 2025 outlook. The Wall Street Journal reported SoFi forecast adjusted net revenue of about $3.54B and adjusted earnings of $455M (about $0.37 per share). [22]
Reuters similarly reported SoFi expected full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of about 37 cents, above earlier guidance and above the analyst estimate Reuters cited (compiled by LSEG). [23]
Next catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings timing (late January 2026)
Multiple market calendars currently point to late January 2026 for SoFi’s next earnings release, though the date is widely labeled as estimated/unconfirmed.
- Nasdaq shows SOFI estimated to report earnings on 01/26/2026. [24]
- Zacks also projects January 26, 2026 based on reporting history. [25]
- Wall Street Horizon lists 01/26/2026 (unconfirmed), before market. [26]
Translation: Between now and that Q4 print, SOFI’s narrative will likely be driven more by product/regulatory headlines (like SoFiUSD rollout progress) and macro/credit sentiment than by fresh financial statements.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for SOFI stock: what the Street is signaling
Wall Street price targets are not physics laws; they’re more like weather forecasts made by humans with emotions and spreadsheets. Still, they shape flows.
As of late December 2025, common “consensus” snapshots show a Hold/neutral lean with a wide dispersion of targets:
- TipRanks: average 12-month price target $27.50, high $38, low $12, and a consensus rating of Hold (with a mix of buys/holds/sells in its tracked set). [27]
- MarketBeat: average price target $25.69, high $38, low $17. [28]
- Investopedia cited Visible Alpha’s Street consensus target “just under $26” around the time of the offering. [29]
How to read this: The “average” target hovering near the current price suggests many analysts see SoFi as closer to fairly valued after the 2025 run—while the high-end targets imply some believe SoFi’s platform/crypto/banking convergence could still re-rate higher if execution continues.
Bull case vs. bear case: the arguments dominating December 2025 commentary
The bull narrative: SoFi is evolving into a diversified financial platform
Optimistic commentary highlights:
- Sustained GAAP profitability and rising revenue
- Rapid member/product growth
- Expanding fee-based business lines
- New “infrastructure” optionality via crypto trading and stablecoin issuance [30]
Some bullish opinion pieces argue the breakout could continue as new growth engines kick in. [31]
The bear narrative: dilution + credit risk + valuation hangover
Skeptical takes focus on:
- Dilution from repeated capital raises
- Reliance on unsecured personal loans and credit-cycle exposure
- Questions about how durable non-lending growth is
- Concern that enthusiasm is running ahead of fundamentals [32]
Even mainstream reporting emphasized that the share offering raised eyebrows precisely because it arrived near elevated price levels, when investors were already debating whether SOFI had gotten ahead of itself. [33]
What could move SOFI stock next in 2026
Heading into 2026, SOFI’s biggest near-term swing factors look like this:
- Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance (late Jan 2026 expectations): Investors will likely key on credit quality trends, margins, and whether fee-based growth offsets lending cyclicality. [34]
- SoFiUSD adoption curve: Will it remain a headline—or become a real product with measurable partner traction? [35]
- Crypto trading engagement: Retail trading tends to be volume-sensitive; if crypto markets stay active, participation could boost activity, but it’s also reputationally and regulatorily sensitive. [36]
- Capital strategy after dilution: Investors will watch whether the $1.5B raise translates into improved flexibility (and eventually better per-share economics), or just signals ongoing capital needs. [37]
The sensible takeaway (for humans who like both excitement and numbers)
As of Dec. 25, 2025, SoFi sits at a fascinating crossroads:
- It’s executing like a scaled consumer finance platform (profitability + growth). [38]
- It’s behaving like a bank that wants optionality (raising capital). [39]
- And it’s pitching itself like a next-gen financial infrastructure provider (stablecoin + crypto rails). [40]
Whether SOFI becomes “a fintech that grew up” or “a fintech that needed constant capital to keep the story going” will likely hinge on two things investors can actually measure over time: credit performance through a full cycle and the scale of recurring, fee-based platform revenues relative to lending.
References
1. investors.sofi.com, 2. investors.sofi.com, 3. investors.sofi.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.fintechfutures.com, 7. finovate.com, 8. www.coindesk.com, 9. investors.sofi.com, 10. investors.sofi.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. investors.sofi.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.bankingdive.com, 17. investors.sofi.com, 18. investors.sofi.com, 19. investors.sofi.com, 20. investors.sofi.com, 21. investors.sofi.com, 22. www.wsj.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. investors.sofi.com, 31. seekingalpha.com, 32. seekingalpha.com, 33. www.marketwatch.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. investors.sofi.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. investors.sofi.com, 38. investors.sofi.com, 39. investors.sofi.com, 40. investors.sofi.com
