SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Stock on December 4, 2025: Crypto Pivot, Record Earnings and a Valuation Tug‑of‑War

December 4, 2025 – New York

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) heads into the final month of 2025 as one of the most polarizing names in fintech. The stock is hovering just under the psychologically important $30 level after a huge year, a blockbuster third quarter, and a headline‑grabbing re‑entry into crypto — all while analysts and quant models argue over whether SOFI is still a buy or already priced for perfection. TS2 Tech+1

Below is a structured look at the latest SoFi stock price, fresh news from December 4, 2025, and the newest forecasts and analyses investors are digesting today.

SOFI stock today: price, volatility and trading backdrop

As of the close on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, SoFi shares finished at $29.07, down about 1.5% on the day from $29.51. Trading ranged roughly between $29.03 and $29.93, with about 52 million shares changing hands — somewhat below the stock’s typical 64 million‑share daily volume. ^[1]

Key snapshot metrics from technical analysis platform StockInvest on that close: ^[2]

Last close: $29.07
One‑day move (Dec 3): –1.49%
10‑day performance: +10.8%
52‑week range:$8.60 – $32.73
Market cap: about $35.6 billion

Despite the modest pullback, the stock has had an explosive run:

Simply Wall St calculates a year‑to‑date return of ~106% and a three‑year total shareholder return of ~561%, underlining just how dramatic the multi‑year rerating has been. ^[3]
Other data providers estimate SoFi shares are up around 100% over the past 12 months and more than 80–90% so far in 2025, easily outpacing the S&P 500 and many AI‑themed stocks. TS2 Tech+2The Motley Fool+2

Put simply: SoFi is no longer a cheap turnaround story. It’s now trading like a momentum‑driven growth financial.

Fresh December 4 news: institutional buying and a valuation check

Big institutions are still adding SOFI

Two new SEC‑filing‑based stories published today show that large investors are continuing to build positions in SoFi: ^[4]

OMERS Administration Corp, one of Canada’s major pension funds, disclosed a new position of 49,000 SOFI shares in Q2, worth roughly $892,000 at the time of the filing.
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. increased its stake in SoFi by 21.8% in Q2 to about 167,500 shares valued at around $3.05 million.

Across these and other recent 13F filings, MarketBeat calculates that hedge funds and institutions now control roughly 38.4% of the float, a sign that professional investors are taking the name more seriously as profitability improves. ^[5]

Simply Wall St: “Most popular narrative – 108% overvalued”

Balancing that demand, a new article from Simply Wall St published today focuses squarely on valuation. After a giant run, their narrative model flags SoFi as “108% overvalued”, with: ^[6]

Last close: $29.07
Narrative fair value estimate:$14.00 per share

Their piece highlights:

SoFi’s YTD share price gain of ~106% and three‑year return above 560%.
Record earnings and user growth, but also margin pressure risk from lower rates and intensifying fintech competition.

The takeaway: growth and profitability are real, but valuation has run far ahead of their model’s conservative fair‑value assumptions.

Earnings engine: what Q3 2025 changed for the SOFI story

Most of the current debate about SoFi traces back to its third‑quarter 2025 earnings, reported on October 28, 2025, which were widely viewed as a turning point. ^[7]

From SoFi’s official release, investor deck and independent coverage, key Q3 highlights include:

Record revenue and profits
- GAAP net revenue: about $961–962 million, up ~38% year over year.
- Adjusted net revenue: roughly $950 million, also up about 38% YoY.
- GAAP net income: about $139 million, more than doubling (~129% YoY).
- Adjusted EBITDA: around $277 million, up nearly 50% YoY, with an EBITDA margin near 29%.
- Diluted EPS:$0.11, vs roughly $0.05 a year ago and ahead of consensus estimates around $0.08–0.09.
Loan growth and deposit strength
- Total loan originations: a record $9.9 billion, up 57% year‑over‑year, driven by strong personal, student and home lending.
- Personal loans: about $7.5 billion in originations (an all‑time high).
- Student loans: roughly $1.5 billion, up ~58% YoY.
- Home loans: nearly $945 million, including a record $352 million in home‑equity loans. ^[8]
- Deposits: grew by around $3.4 billion quarter‑over‑quarter to nearly $33 billion, giving SoFi a relatively low‑cost funding base. ^[9]
Platform and membership growth
- Members: ~12.6 million, up about 3.3 million versus a year earlier.
- Cross‑buy: about 40% of new product sales going to existing members, showing deepening engagement. ^[10]
- Fee‑based revenue: around $409 million, up ~50% YoY and now roughly 43% of adjusted net revenue, reflecting a shift toward a more capital‑light, services‑driven model. ^[11]

Crucially, the company has now logged eight consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability, reinforcing management’s claim that SoFi is evolving from a speculative fintech into a “profit engine” digital bank. ^[12]

Guidance and fundamental forecasts: 2025 and 2026

Company guidance vs. Street expectations

On the back of its strong Q3, SoFi raised its full‑year 2025 outlook: StockStory+4TS2 Tech+4TS2 Tech+4

Adjusted EPS guidance: lifted to about $0.37 (from prior $0.31).
Full‑year revenue guidance: moved up to around $3.54 billion, from roughly $3.38 billion previously.
Adjusted EBITDA guidance: raised to roughly $1.04 billion at the midpoint.

Yet analyst consensus has been slower to catch up:

MarketBeat data still show average EPS expectations around $0.26 for the current fiscal year (on a GAAP basis), underscoring a gap between the company’s adjusted metrics and the Street’s more cautious models. ^[13]

Zacks’ commentary on SoFi’s breakout notes that fiscal 2025 EPS is now projected near $0.36, with earnings expected to climb about 65% in FY26 to roughly $0.60 per share — a growth profile that, if realized, could justify elevated valuation multiples. ^[14]

Separately, a Morningstar analyst note in late October raised SoFi’s fair value estimate from $16 to $18 per share, reflecting improved loan growth and higher expected mortgage and platform volumes, though that intrinsic estimate still sits well below the current $29–30 share price. ^[15]

A Nasdaq feature on SoFi’s “incredible 2025” also highlights management’s expectation that tangible book value will rise by about $2.5 billion this year, to just under $7.2 billion, a roughly 47% increase from 2024 — another sign of balance‑sheet strengthening behind the headline EPS numbers. ^[16]

Crypto pivot and blockchain remittances: new growth phase or new risk?

SoFi’s crypto and blockchain strategy is central to today’s news flow and to many of the latest forecasts.

SoFi Crypto: first nationally chartered bank with consumer crypto trading

On November 11, 2025, SoFi Bank launched “SoFi Crypto”, becoming — by its account and multiple independent reports — the first and only nationally chartered, FDIC‑insured bank in the U.S. to allow customers to buy, sell and hold dozens of cryptocurrencies directly inside a fully integrated banking app. ^[17]

Key points from company and media coverage:

Eligible customers can trade major tokens such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana alongside their checking, savings, lending and investing products in a single interface. TS2 Tech+2Yahoo Finance+2
SoFi is positioning the product as bank‑grade, stressing FDIC insurance on fiat balances and compliance with new federal guidance that clarified what crypto activities banks with SoFi’s charter can perform. ^[18]
Management has telegraphed plans for a USD‑pegged stablecoin and deeper integration of crypto rails into lending and payments, using blockchain to lower transaction costs and expand cross‑border use cases. ^[19]

SoFi Pay and blockchain remittances

Beyond pure trading, SoFi is leaning into blockchain‑based remittances:

In its Q3 investor deck, the company highlighted SoFi Pay, a crypto‑powered global remittance product, and an AI‑driven “Cash Coach” as new tools meant to help members move money across borders more cheaply and manage cash flow more intelligently. ^[20]
Zacks framed this push as a “new growth phase”, arguing that blockchain remittances could open additional fee revenue streams and cross‑sell opportunities, especially across SoFi’s growing international footprint in Latin America, Canada and Hong Kong. ^[21]

Barron’s coverage of the crypto relaunch notes that SoFi is also working with partners such as Lightspark to power its blockchain remittances, and is targeting the launch of its stablecoin by the end of 2025, subject to final regulatory and technical milestones. ^[22]

The strategic bet: if SoFi can safely weave crypto into a regulated bank framework, it could differentiate itself from both legacy banks and pure‑play exchanges — but it also takes on regulatory and reputational risk if the crypto cycle turns again.

Analyst ratings, price targets and how Wall Street is split

MarketBeat’s latest round‑up of analyst opinions shows a highly divided Street: ^[23]

Consensus rating: overall “Hold.”
Rating mix:
- 1 analyst rates SoFi “Strong Buy”
- 7 rate it “Buy”
- 12 say “Hold”
- 3 assign “Sell” or “Underperform”
Average 12‑month price target: about $24.9–$25.1 per share, notably below the current ~$29 spot price.

Under the hood, though, views vary widely:

Bullish firms including Citigroup, Needham and Mizuho have lifted their targets into the mid‑30s to high‑30s, citing strong loan demand, rising fee revenue and the potential for crypto‑related upside. ^[24]
More cautious houses such as Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and Morgan Stanley have raised targets but still sit in the high‑teens to around $20, often with “Underperform” or “Underweight” tags, citing valuation and credit‑cycle risk. ^[25]

Overlaying this with independent valuation work:

Simply Wall St pegs fair value at $14, implying more than 50% downside from today’s price, even after accounting for strong growth. ^[26]
Morningstar recently raised its fair value estimate to $18, still well below the market but less pessimistic than the $14 narrative model. ^[27]

In other words: professional forecasters mostly agree SoFi is a high‑quality growth franchise — they just disagree sharply on how much of that future is already baked into the stock.

Short‑term technical outlook: momentum vs. near‑term risk

From a pure chart‑based perspective, StockInvest downgraded SoFi yesterday (Dec 3) from a “Buy” to a “Sell candidate” on a short‑term basis, even as its trend models still point to an upward channel. ^[28]

Their latest technical read‑out:

The stock sits in the middle of a “very wide and weak rising trend” over the short term.
Moving averages (short‑ and long‑term) still flash buy signals, with the short‑term average above the long‑term trendline.
The system nonetheless flags near‑term downside risk after a recent pivot‑top signal on November 28, with the price drifting a couple percent lower since.
Over the next three months, their model expects SoFi to rise about 7% on average, with a 90% probability range between roughly $27 and $35.
They highlight support near $29.03 and resistance around $29.51, and classify SOFI as “high risk” given typical daily moves above 3%. ^[29]

MarketBeat’s “Shares Down 1.5% – Should You Sell?” note, published late on December 3, echoes the theme of minor pullback after a major run, pointing out that Wednesday’s decline came on lower‑than‑average volume, which can sometimes signal healthy consolidation rather than panic selling. ^[30]

What today’s commentators are saying: bull vs. bear narratives

The bull case: “From speculation to profit engine”

Several fresh and recent pieces lean bullish:

InsiderMonkey’s “Bull Case Theory” (Dec 4) summarizes a Substack thesis arguing that SoFi has crossed a key threshold: from an early‑stage disruptor to a scaled digital financial institution with real profits, diversified revenue and significant operating leverage. The piece notes trailing and forward P/E ratios in the low‑50s, which bulls see as reasonable for a company growing revenue near 40% and compounding membership rapidly. ^[31]
The Motley Fool (Dec 2) highlights one big reason to buy now: SoFi’s one‑stop‑shop ecosystem and bank charter have helped the stock outperform both the broader market and many AI darlings in 2025, with shares up around 85% year‑to‑date at the time of writing. ^[32]
A Nasdaq article (“Is the breakout in SoFi stock just beginning?”) notes that the stock has nearly doubled in 2025, hitting an all‑time high near $32, and raises the question of whether SoFi could eventually follow the path of other fintech winners that scaled from sub‑$10 to triple‑digit share prices. ^[33]
Another Nasdaq feature on SoFi’s “incredible 2025” emphasizes the massive upward revision in tangible book value guidance, seeing it as evidence that the company’s balance sheet is compounding value faster than previously expected. ^[34]

Common threads in the bull narrative:

Durable profitability after multiple profitable quarters.
Network effects from a multi‑product financial platform.
Regulated crypto leadership as a differentiator versus competitors.
Potential for multiple expansion or sustained premium multiples if growth stays above 30% with rising margins.

The bear case: “Fantastic business, demanding price”

On the cautious side:

Simply Wall St’s valuation check explicitly labels SoFi “overvalued,” with price more than double their fair value estimate. Their commentary warns that margin pressure, rising competition and macro shifts (like lower rates compressing net interest margins) could quickly make today’s assumptions look optimistic. ^[35]
StockInvest’s downgrade to a short‑term Sell candidate reflects concern that the stock is extended after a parabolic move and that momentum indicators (like a pivot‑top and a negative MACD over three months) increase the risk of a deeper pullback even within an upward trend. ^[36]
MarketBeat’s analyst breakdown shows a cluster of “Hold” and several “Sell/Underperform” ratings, with some banks keeping targets in the high‑teens to low‑20s despite recent beats — a sign that not everyone is convinced the current growth rate is sustainable or that credit quality will stay benign through the next cycle. ^[37]

More broadly, skeptics worry about:

Credit risk: personal loans remain a large part of originations; any spike in unemployment or consumer stress could hit charge‑offs and earnings. (Q3 charge‑offs on personal loans did fall modestly, but remain a key metric to watch.) ^[38]
Regulatory uncertainty: while current U.S. policy is friendlier to bank‑led crypto, future political shifts or new rules around stablecoins and digital assets could change the economics of SoFi’s crypto bet. ^[39]
Valuation discipline: even if EPS hits $0.60 in 2026, today’s price implies a forward P/E that many value‑oriented investors would still see as rich for a financial stock, especially one exposed to consumer lending and crypto cycles. ^[40]

Upcoming catalysts: conferences, guiding and crypto rollout

Near‑term events that could move SOFI include:

UBS Global Technology & AI Conference – SoFi’s CFO, Chris Lapointe, participated in a fireside chat on December 3, 2025, with a replay hosted on the company’s Investor Relations site. Management commentary there can shape expectations around credit quality, crypto adoption metrics and 2026 guidance. ^[41]
Crypto rollout milestones – Investors will be watching:
- How quickly SoFi turns on crypto trading for its full member base.
- Updates on stablecoin timing and regulatory feedback.
- Early traction of blockchain remittances via SoFi Pay and partners like Lightspark. ^[42]
Macro and rate expectations – As markets price in potential rate cuts, SoFi’s net interest margins, loan growth and deposit trends could all react in ways that differ from traditional banks — either helping (via more refis and loan demand) or hurting (via lower spreads). ^[43]

What today’s December 4 update means for SOFI investors

Putting all of this together, the SoFi stock set‑up as of December 4, 2025 looks like this:

Positives

Record Q3 numbers and raised 2025 guidance show a business that’s scaling quickly while staying profitable. ^[44]
Membership and deposit growth continue to be strong, with 12.6 million members, rising cross‑sell, and nearly $33 billion in deposits supporting low‑cost funding. ^[45]
Crypto and blockchain initiatives (SoFi Crypto, SoFi Pay, planned stablecoin) give SoFi a chance to capture new revenue streams and differentiate itself in a crowded fintech landscape. ^[46]
Institutional buying and conference visibility signal that large investors and Wall Street are paying very close attention. ^[47]

Risks

The stock trades well above most published fair‑value estimates and above the average analyst price target, leaving a thin margin of safety if growth slows. ^[48]
Technical indicators show short‑term overextension, with models like StockInvest’s flagging a sell‑candidate status despite an overall rising trend. ^[49]
Credit and regulatory risks around consumer lending and crypto could inject volatility that isn’t yet fully reflected in the models. ^[50]

For investors, that adds up to a high‑conviction, high‑volatility story:

If you believe SoFi can continue compounding revenue around 30–40% annually, expand fee‑based services, and manage credit risk through a full cycle, today’s multiple might look justified — or even attractive — in hindsight.
If you think growth will normalize faster, crypto economics will prove uneven, or credit losses will bite when the consumer cycle turns, the current price could look stretched relative to fundamentals.

Either way, the new data and commentary released around December 4, 2025 reinforce one point: SoFi is no longer a niche fintech flyer. It’s a systemically watched digital bank and crypto‑enabled platform whose stock will likely stay front‑and‑center on both bullish and bearish watchlists well into 2026.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation before making investment decisions.