SolGold plc (LON: SOLG, OTC: SLGGF) has just turned into one of the liveliest dramas on the London market.
After a year of “transformational” financing and project progress at its Cascabel copper–gold project in Ecuador, the company is now in a formal takeover “offer period” following a rejected approach from China’s Jiangxi Copper – and the share price has ripped higher on both sides of the Atlantic. [1]
This article pulls together the key news, forecasts and analyses up to 1 December 2025, and looks at what all of this might mean for investors watching SolGold’s volatile stock.
SolGold in 2025: from explorer to would‑be copper producer
SolGold is a copper–gold developer focused mainly on Ecuador. Its flagship asset is the Cascabel concession in northern Ecuador, hosting the giant Alpala deposit – a project the company says could rank among the world’s top 20 copper–gold mines once in production, based on the 2024 pre‑feasibility study (PFS). [2]
In 2025, the company effectively hit the reset button:
- Leadership overhaul: Dan Vujcic was appointed CEO, alongside Paul Smith as non‑executive chair and Charles Joseland as senior independent director, with a stated goal of shifting SolGold from “explorer” to “developer.” [3]
- Corporate simplification: SolGold is reorganising its assets into two subsidiaries – one holding Cascabel and nearby northern licences, and another (“ExploreCo”) holding the broader Ecuadorian exploration portfolio, including the Porvenir project in the south. [4]
- Listing footprint: The group voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange in June 2025, keeping London as its primary share listing. [5]
In September, the company’s annual report described 2025 as a year that “reshaped SolGold,” highlighting transformational financing, an accelerated Cascabel development plan, and a clear pathway for ExploreCo. [6]
Jiangxi Copper’s 26p per share offer – and why SolGold said no
The biggest catalyst for SolGold’s share price in late 2025 has been Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (JCC), already the company’s largest shareholder.
Two non‑binding bids at 26p
According to Jiangxi’s own Hong Kong regulatory filing and a series of UK takeover announcements:
- On 23 November and 28 November 2025, Jiangxi submitted two non‑binding possible cash offers for 100% of SolGold at 26 pence per share. [7]
- Jiangxi already owns roughly 365.8 million shares, or about 12.2% of SolGold’s issued share capital, following a US$18 million strategic investment earlier in 2025. [8]
SolGold’s board rejected both approaches, describing them as preliminary, conditional and not reflective of the company’s standalone value, and advised shareholders to take no action. [9]
Takeover Panel deadline: 26 December 2025
Under the UK Takeover Code, Jiangxi now has until 5:00 pm (London time) on 26 December 2025 either to announce a firm intention to make an offer or to walk away. That deadline can be extended only with the Takeover Panel’s consent. [10]
In the Hong Kong filing, Jiangxi explicitly warns that there is no certainty a binding offer will materialise, or that any future offer would be at 26p or on the same terms. [11]
Market reaction: SolGold trades above the offer price
Investors, at least for now, seem to think SolGold is worth more than 26p:
- After news of the proposals broke, London‑listed SolGold shares jumped around 14%, closing near 29.55p on 28 November 2025. [12]
- A subsequent RNS linked to Jiangxi’s Hong Kong filing showed SolGold trading around 29.70p on 30 November. [13]
- On the US OTC market, the SLGGF line closed at $0.39 on 28 November, up 26.97% on the day and at its 52‑week high, versus a low of $0.07 over the past year. [14]
Third‑party commentary suggests the indicative 26p offer implied a valuation between roughly £793m and £887m, or around US$0.9–1.0 billion, depending on share count and exchange rate assumptions. [15]
Meanwhile, long‑time strategic shareholders BHP and Newmont still hold roughly 10% each, keeping alive the possibility (not certainty) of competing interest down the line. [16]
Cascabel and Tandayama-América: the engine of the SolGold story
The takeover fight makes sense only if you understand Cascabel, because that’s what everyone is really trying to buy.
A world‑class copper–gold deposit
SolGold’s own project documentation describes Cascabel’s Alpala deposit as a world‑class porphyry copper–gold system with a high‑grade core, favourable infrastructure and supportive local governance. The February 2024 PFS positioned it as a potential top‑20 global copper–gold mine by production. [17]
New strategy: near‑surface TAM first, deep Alpala later
In 2025, SolGold shifted from a “go straight to a giant block cave” vision to a phased development built around the nearby Tandayama-América (TAM) deposit:
- Early works from 2026: SolGold now plans to start site preparation and other early works at Cascabel in 2026, with “first production” targeted for 2028. [18]
- Starter open pit at TAM: Initial ore would come from a near‑surface open pit at TAM, about 3 km north of Alpala, starting around January 2028. [19]
- Underground at Alpala: Later in 2028, production is expected to ramp from an Alpala sub‑level cave, before expanding to a full block cave delivering first ore by around 2031. [20]
A MiningWeekly report on 28 November 2025 highlighted a 60 million‑tonne “starter‑pit” concept at TAM, with scope to expand both tonnage and grade as more drilling is integrated into the mine plan. [21]
Multiple RNS and royalty‑holder updates show that 2025 drilling at TAM has produced long near‑surface intercepts supporting open‑pit potential, and management explicitly presents TAM as the early cash‑flow engine to help fund the capital‑intensive underground build at Alpala. [22]
Cost position and copper market backdrop
SolGold’s 2025 annual communications emphasise that Cascabel is expected to sit in the bottom quartile of the global copper cost curve, which is a big part of why strategic investors are circling. [23]
CEO Dan Vujcic has repeatedly linked the project schedule to anticipated structural copper deficits driven by global electrification and decarbonisation. [24]
If those deficits materialise and Cascabel hits its cost and schedule targets, the asset could be very lucrative. If the copper market disappoints or the project stumbles, the leverage cuts the other way.
Funding the build: $750m gold stream, OR Royalties and Jiangxi’s cash
A world‑class mine also needs world‑class amounts of money. SolGold’s funding stack is now unusually complex – but also more advanced than many peers.
US$750 million gold stream with Franco‑Nevada and OR Royalties
In July 2024, SolGold signed a US$750 million syndicated gold stream agreement with Franco‑Nevada (Barbados) and OR Royalties International Ltd. (ORIL): [25]
- Initial deposit: US$100m, in three equal advances of US$33.3m each.
- Balance: Up to a further US$650m available for construction, conditional on permitting, an investment protection agreement with Ecuador, a construction decision and the rest of the financing being in place. [26]
By July 2025, SolGold had met the conditions for and received the second US$33.3m advance, with the funds explicitly earmarked for Cascabel development. [27]
The stream economics are punchy:
- SolGold will sell 20% of Cascabel’s gold production at 20% of the spot price until 750,000 ounces have been delivered, then 12% thereafter. [28]
- The stream represents roughly 5% of projected project revenue but covers about 42% of estimated development capex, according to the company’s July 2025 disclosures. [29]
- Importantly for takeover optionality, SolGold has change‑of‑control buyback rights over a portion of the stream for up to five years after closing. [30]
OR Royalties also holds a 0.6% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on Cascabel plus a 6% gold stream (dropping to 3.6% after 225,000 ounces), and has committed to provide up to US$195m of additional deposits as the project moves through permitting and construction milestones. [31]
Jiangxi’s strategic equity stake
On top of the streams, Jiangxi Copper injected around US$18m via the purchase of 157,141,000 SolGold shares at US$0.115 in March 2025 – a roughly 45% premium to the then market price. [32]
That transaction lifted Jiangxi’s ownership to roughly 12.2%, and was branded in the annual report as a “strategic investment.” [33]
Between the gold stream, royalty package and Jiangxi’s cash, SolGold now argues that Cascabel is significantly de‑risked from a funding standpoint, though a substantial chunk of capex still needs to be covered through future debt, additional stream tranches and/or equity.
Financial performance: narrowing losses but still pre‑revenue
Despite the takeover headlines, SolGold remains at heart a pre‑revenue developer.
- A TipRanks summary of the company’s 2025 financials notes that operating losses fell from about US$20.8m in 2024 to roughly US$14.4m in 2025, reflecting tighter cost control and stream‑related funding. [34]
- The company’s management discussion & analysis (MD&A) showed cash of about US$11.9m and net current assets of US$7.2m as of 30 June 2025, before the second US$33.3m stream advance hit the balance sheet. [35]
More recent Google Finance data for the quarter ended 30 September 2025 (fiscal Q1 2026) indicate: [36]
- Cash and short‑term investments of around US$34.1m (up ~53% year‑on‑year).
- Total assets just above US$511m, with total liabilities of roughly US$306m and equity of about US$205m.
- Net loss for the quarter of about US$34.3m and negative EBITDA, reflecting ongoing project spending and corporate costs.
Separately, MarketBeat’s snapshot of the London‑listed stock pegs SolGold’s debt‑to‑equity ratio near 78.7, a negative P/E around ‑21, but relatively healthy current and quick ratios of 3.75 and 2.30, respectively. [37]
Put simply: SolGold is still burning cash, but it has more of it than before, and a large portion of its future capex has prospective funding lined up via the stream and royalty structures.
SolGold share price in 2025: from penny stock to takeover target
On the OTC market, SLGGF has quietly pulled off a transformation of its own:
- Over the last 12 months, the stock has traded between $0.07 and $0.39, with the high set on 28 November 2025 – a more than five‑fold move from the low. [38]
- On that same day, the stock jumped 26.97% from $0.307 to $0.39, with a two‑week gain of about 47%, on rising volume. [39]
On the London main market:
- SolGold’s shares were trading around 21p before the latest spike, then surged roughly 20% intraday to a high near 25.65p on 27 November, following positive analyst commentary. [40]
- After the Jiangxi bid rejection, they closed at roughly 29.5–29.7p. [41]
Technical analysis from StockInvest classifies SLGGF as a “hold / accumulate” rather than an outright buy at current levels, noting: [42]
- A strong short‑ and long‑term uptrend,
- Extremely high volatility and a very overbought RSI,
- A recommended tight stop‑loss around $0.377, with a near‑term trading band for 1 December 2025 of roughly $0.377–0.403.
The message: momentum is powerful, but so is the risk of sharp reversals.
What analysts and models are forecasting for SolGold stock
Street targets: aggressive upside, speculative label
Several external platforms track analyst price targets for SolGold, and they broadly agree on one thing: the upside potential on paper looks huge, but so does the risk.
- A Fintel‑sourced note on Nasdaq reports that, as of 17 November 2025, the average one‑year price target for SLGGF is US$0.64, with a range from US$0.53 to US$0.79. That represents roughly 436% upside from the then‑recent closing price of US$0.12. [43]
- The same piece notes that Canaccord Genuity recently reiterated a “Speculative Buy” rating on SolGold. [44]
- On the London line, TradingView shows a consensus 12‑month target of around 45.46p for SOLG, based on two analysts over the last three months. [45]
- MarketBeat data also point to a Buy‑rated consensus with an average target around 46p, substantially above current prices. [46]
The key words there are “speculative” and “if things go right”. None of these targets are guarantees; they’re conditional on smooth project execution, stable copper prices and a relatively cooperative Ecuadorian permitting environment.
Quant and algorithmic forecasts
Several quantitative platforms also attempt longer‑term price projections:
- StockScan’s model suggests an average SLGGF price of roughly US$0.1456 in 2025, rising to US$0.39 in 2027, US$0.51 in 2028, US$0.65 in 2029 and US$0.76 in 2030, although those numbers are generated mechanically and should be treated as scenario outputs, not fundamental valuations. [47]
- StockInvest’s technical engine remains constructive on the trend but has recently downgraded the rating from “Strong Buy” to “Hold/Accumulate”, citing high volatility and overbought conditions even as multiple moving‑average and MACD signals remain positive. [48]
These tools can be useful for framing sentiment, but they are not a substitute for project‑level due diligence.
Governance clean‑up: resolving legacy litigation
One piece that matters for risk perception, though it sits away from the drill rigs and takeover bids, is governance.
On 21 February 2025, SolGold announced it had settled litigation with former CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo, resolving court proceedings in Australia through a confidential settlement that included a payment to Cuzzubbo. [49]
The company emphasised that clearing the legal overhang would allow management and the board to focus on strategy and project delivery – a necessary housekeeping step if SolGold is going to be taken seriously as a future producer or a takeover candidate.
Key upside drivers for SolGold stock
For investors fascinated by this story, the bull case roughly hangs on four big pillars:
- Cascabel’s scale and cost position
A large, long‑life copper–gold deposit with bottom‑quartile cost ambitions is inherently valuable in a world where big new copper mines are rare. [50] - Phased development and early cash‑flow potential from TAM
By starting with a near‑surface TAM open pit before moving to the deeper Alpala underground mine, SolGold hopes to generate earlier revenue and reduce financing strain. Positive 2025 drilling updates and the 60Mt starter‑pit concept support this strategy. [51] - Partially secured funding stack
The US$750m gold stream, OR Royalties’ commitments and Jiangxi’s equity stake go a long way toward covering Cascabel’s multi‑billion‑dollar capex – and they signal external parties see real value in the project. [52] - Bid tension and strategic interest
With Jiangxi Copper, BHP, and Newmont all on the register, the possibility of future corporate activity adds a speculative premium – especially now that a formal offer period has begun and the first 26p proposal has been rejected with the market trading above it. [53]
If copper prices stay strong, Ecuador remains supportive and Cascabel hits its milestones, today’s valuations could look cheap in hindsight. That’s the optimistic scenario baked into many of the bullish analyst targets.
Key risks: what could go wrong?
The bear (or at least cautious) case is equally real:
- Project execution & capex risk
Cascabel is a technically complex, long‑life underground project layered on top of a new open pit. Block caves are notoriously tricky. Cost overruns and delays are common in this type of mine, especially in emerging markets. - Permitting and political risk in Ecuador
Although SolGold has made progress on an amended investment protection agreement and is advancing its environmental impact assessment, Ecuador’s political and regulatory environment can be unpredictable, and mining projects have seen community and legal challenges in the past. [54] - Funding still not fully solved
The streams and royalties are substantial but do not cover all the capex. The remaining funding will likely involve project debt, further stream tranches and/or equity. In a weaker market, equity raises could be highly dilutive. - Balance‑sheet and earnings risk
SolGold remains loss‑making, with negative EBITDA and meaningful liabilities. Any deterioration in copper prices or delays at Cascabel could strain liquidity and force less‑favourable financing. [55] - Takeover uncertainty
Jiangxi is under a hard deadline to “put up or shut up” by 26 December 2025 – but there is no obligation to raise its price or proceed at all. If Jiangxi walks away and no white‑knight bidder emerges, some of the takeover premium could evaporate quickly. [56] - Stream and royalty burden
While the gold stream de‑risks funding, it also carves out a meaningful slice of future gold revenue. If capex rises or copper prices disappoint, that revenue sharing could pinch project economics for common shareholders more than the headline models suggest. [57]
In short: SolGold offers leverage to a potentially huge copper–gold asset – and leverage cuts both ways.
Bottom line: a high‑beta bet on copper, Cascabel and corporate chess
As of 1 December 2025, SolGold sits at the intersection of three big forces:
- A giant, long‑dated copper–gold development in Cascabel, now moving into early‑works planning.
- A partially de‑risked funding package built around streams, royalties and strategic equity.
- A live takeover situation, with Jiangxi Copper under a regulatory clock and heavyweight shareholders watching from the sidelines.
Analysts and quant models see enormous upside if things break right, but the company is still burning cash, the project is technically and politically complex, and nothing about the takeover is guaranteed.
For investors, SolGold is less a sleepy mining stock and more a high‑beta options bet on copper prices, Ecuadorian politics, engineering execution – and whether a bidding war actually materialises. That can be exciting, but it is not low risk.
References
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