The S&P 500 Index traded in the mid‑6,700s around late morning Wednesday, down roughly 0.6% as investors continued to reassess the “AI trade” and what the next phase of U.S. rate policy could look like into 2026. Around 11:47 a.m. ET, Investing.com data showed the S&P 500 near 6,759.93 (‑0.59%), reflecting a market that’s still close to recent record territory but struggling to regain momentum after several sessions of declines. [1]
The broader tape was being pulled in opposite directions: mega‑cap and AI‑linked names were sliding again, while energy stocks caught a bid after crude prices rebounded on geopolitics. [2]
Below is a detailed, up-to-the-minute breakdown of what’s moving the S&P 500 today—plus the most relevant news, forecasts, and strategist takes published since Dec. 15, 2025.
Where the S&P 500 stands at 11:47 a.m. ET
- S&P 500: about 6,760, down about 0.6% late morning. [3]
- Recent closing reference point: Tuesday’s close was 6,800.26, after a modest decline. [4]
- Today’s trading range (so far): roughly 6,742 to 6,812 according to Google Finance, underscoring choppy, range-bound action. [5]
Today’s move kept the index pointed toward a fourth straight session of pressure, even though the S&P 500 remains not far from its all‑time high set last week. [6]
What’s driving the S&P 500 today: three forces battling for control
1) AI and mega-cap tech: “bubble” fears return, and the index feels it
The headline story is familiar but still powerful: big AI-linked stocks have been falling, again, and their weight in the index matters.
By late morning, the market narrative was dominated by renewed concerns that the AI buildout may be running ahead of near-term revenue reality. The Associated Press highlighted declines in several AI-related bellwethers, noting that Nvidia was one of the heaviest weights dragging on the S&P 500. [7]
A key data point making the rounds: a UBS survey in which only 17% of larger businesses said they’re deploying AI projects “at scale,” reinforcing the idea that broad monetization could take time. [8]
That lines up with what’s been increasingly emphasized in market commentary since Dec. 15: the S&P 500’s concentration in a handful of mega-caps means that weakness in a small group can overwhelm strength elsewhere. Invesco’s strategists wrote that investors’ biggest concerns have recently included “elevated valuations and heavy concentration” in the index, a setup that makes AI-led drawdowns feel bigger than they might in a more evenly balanced market. [9]
Why it matters for “S&P 500 today” watchers: even if most stocks are “fine,” the S&P 500 can still struggle if the market is selling its largest AI beneficiaries.
2) Oil and energy: Venezuela news flips the script from Tuesday’s slide
While tech was wobbling, energy was moving the other way.
Reuters reported that crude prices jumped after President Donald Trump ordered a “blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, helping lift energy stocks. [10] The AP also pointed to that same development, noting oil prices climbed and energy shares gained traction as a result. [11]
This is a sharp reversal from Tuesday’s tone, when energy was hammered as crude fell sharply. Investopedia’s Dec. 16 market recap described energy as the worst-performing S&P 500 sector that day as crude slid, showing how quickly the sector’s influence can rotate when oil headlines change. [12]
Why it matters: energy’s bounce is helping cushion the index, but it hasn’t been enough to offset the renewed downdraft in mega-cap tech and AI-linked names.
3) Rates, the Fed, and the data problem: investors want clarity, but the picture is messy
The third force is monetary policy expectations, and the market’s frustration with incomplete clarity.
On the supportive side, Reuters highlighted comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggesting the Fed still has room to cut rates against a softening jobs market—language that can be market-friendly when investors are hunting for a “Fed backstop.” [13]
But the broader rates debate remains complicated, partly because a string of delayed and disrupted data has made it harder to judge the economy’s true trajectory. Reuters and Investopedia both noted that the latest job figures were delayed and affected by the recent government shutdown, adding uncertainty to how much signal investors should take from the reports. [14]
The key macro catalyst since Dec. 15: unemployment rises to 4.6%
The most market-moving macro development in this window came from the delayed U.S. employment data.
Investopedia reported that the nonfarm payrolls report showed 64,000 jobs added in November (above some forecasts), but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, described as the highest level since mid‑2021. [15]
Reuters’ market reaction coverage similarly emphasized the same numbers, while also noting a separate report showing retail sales were flat and that both releases were delayed by the shutdown—again reinforcing that investors are working with imperfect information. [16]
Why the S&P 500 cares: higher unemployment can fuel hopes for rate cuts, but it can also reignite concerns about earnings risk—especially when the data quality itself is being questioned.
What happened on Wall Street since Dec. 15: a fast timeline for S&P 500 readers
Dec. 15, 2025: AI pressure + valuation debates dominate the close
On Dec. 15 coverage, Investopedia highlighted that strategists were already preparing investors for a less explosive 2026 after a strong AI-driven run. Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian was cited expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2026 around 7,100, implying only modest upside from then-current levels. [17]
Investopedia also pointed to valuation and forward-return concerns (and referenced Vanguard’s expectation of more muted longer-term returns), capturing the market’s growing discomfort with how much “good news” may already be priced in. [18]
Dec. 16, 2025: S&P 500 slips again as delayed data lands; markets price more cuts
By Tuesday’s close, Reuters reported: S&P 500 down 0.24% to 6,800.26, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain, reflecting a market that’s rotating internally rather than moving in one clean direction. [19]
A notable detail from Reuters: after the data dump, investors were pricing in at least 58 basis points of rate cuts next year, more than double the 25 bps signaled by the Fed the prior week—an illustration of how aggressively markets are leaning into an easing narrative. [20]
Dec. 17, 2025: early resilience fades; late-morning trade turns defensive again
This morning began with signs of stabilization. Reuters noted that at 9:34 a.m. ET the S&P 500 was slightly higher (around 6,807.98), before the late-morning tape turned more negative. [21]
By late morning, the AP described the S&P 500 down about 0.6%, pressured by additional weakness in AI-related bellwethers. [22]
Forecasts and outlook: what strategists are projecting for 2026
Even as today’s focus is intraday volatility, the bigger conversation is increasingly about how much upside is left after a powerful multi-year run.
Forecast 1: Bank of America’s 7,100 target for end-2026
Investopedia’s Dec. 15 report cited BofA strategist Savita Subramanian projecting the S&P 500 finishing 2026 at 7,100, framed as relatively conservative versus other bullish calls. [23]
Her rationale, as summarized in that coverage, centered on the idea that valuation multiples could compress even if earnings grow—an important reminder that markets can deliver “okay” earnings and still post more muted index gains if starting valuations are high. [24]
Forecast 2: Reuters poll sees roughly 7,490 by end-2026
A Reuters outlook piece published Dec. 16 said a Reuters poll of strategists predicted the S&P 500 could climb nearly 12% to about 7,490 by end‑2026. [25]
That same report framed AI as a “mainstay” in 2026 investment strategies, but also flagged key risks: inflation surprises, lofty valuations, and tariff tensions that could still trigger corrections even if the bull market remains intact. [26]
Forecast 3: The “diversification thesis” grows louder
A major shift in post‑Dec. 15 commentary is that more strategists are arguing the next leg of the market may depend on broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech.
Invesco noted that the mega-cap tech trade has lost momentum, even as the broader S&P 500 pushed to a new all-time high earlier in December. It also pointed out that small-cap and equal-weight indexes had recently hit record highs as well—an argument that the “market underneath the headline” may be healthier than mega-cap weakness implies. [27]
Invesco also cited a key macro backdrop: the Fed had cut rates by 25 basis points at the prior week’s FOMC meeting and signaled at least one more cut in 2026, which it argued could create a more constructive setup for stocks beyond the largest names. [28]
Sentiment check: investors are bullish—but they’re nervous about the same risks hitting today
If today’s tape feels fragile, it’s notable that professional sentiment has still been strong.
Business Insider reported Dec. 16 that Bank of America’s fund manager survey showed managers were the most bullish in more than three years, with cash allocations down to 3.3%, and a broad sentiment measure rising to 7.4 (highest since mid‑2021). [29]
But that same survey cited “AI bubble bursting” and a private credit-related crash as major tail risks—exactly the kind of worry that can reappear on days when AI bellwethers are sliding and volatility firms up. [30]
Levels and signals traders are watching into the afternoon
Even outside pure fundamentals, a lot of day-to-day S&P 500 action right now is being framed as consolidation vs. breakdown.
An Investing.com analysis piece published early Dec. 17 described the S&P 500 as range-bound and argued the market is effectively waiting for a catalyst—especially with bond yields and inflation data back in focus. [31]
That same analysis highlighted a key technical area in S&P 500 futures (a support zone roughly around 6,790–6,812), framing it as a “line in the sand” for near-term bulls. [32]
What to watch next: the next catalysts for S&P 500 direction
The next steps for the S&P 500 appear likely to come from inflation data and central-bank expectations, not just earnings headlines.
- U.S. inflation data: Reuters noted the market’s next major focal point is an upcoming consumer inflation report (and the market’s read-through to Fed policy). [33]
- This week’s macro calendar: Invesco’s “what to watch” list included U.S. inflation releases and major central bank decisions (including the Bank of England policy decision), reinforcing that global rate expectations are still part of the risk backdrop. [34]
Bottom line at 11:47 a.m. ET: S&P 500 is slipping, but the bigger bull-market debate is still alive
As of late morning on Dec. 17, 2025, the S&P 500 is down about 0.6% near 6,760, with AI-heavy mega-caps back under pressure and oil/energy providing partial offset. [35]
The market’s bigger question isn’t just whether the S&P 500 finishes down today—it’s whether the next phase of this cycle looks like:
- a broadening rally (as some strategists argue could happen if easing continues and growth holds up), [36]
- or a more muted, valuation-constrained grind higher, with periodic air pockets tied to AI monetization doubts and rate volatility. [37]
Either way, with the S&P 500 still close to recent highs, investors are treating each new jobs, inflation, and Fed headline as potential “permission” for the next move—up or down. [38]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.google.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. apnews.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.invesco.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.invesco.com, 28. www.invesco.com, 29. www.businessinsider.com, 30. www.businessinsider.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.invesco.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.invesco.com, 37. www.investopedia.com, 38. apnews.com
