NEW YORK — S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI) shares finished Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 at $506.71, down $3.88 (-0.76%) on the regular session, and edged lower to about $505.89 (-0.16%) in after-hours trading. [1]
That weaker close came on a day when the broader market moved the other way: the S&P 500 rose 0.8% after a softer inflation print revived rate-cut expectations for 2026. [2]
For investors looking at SPGI “after the bell” and positioning ahead of Friday, Dec. 19, the setup is straightforward: SPGI itself didn’t drop on a single company headline, but rate-sensitive capital-markets narratives are back in focus—and S&P Global’s business is deeply tied to what happens next in issuance, refinancing, and deal activity.
After-hours snapshot: where SPGI stands heading into Friday
Here’s the clean “what just happened” read:
- Close (Thu, Dec. 18): $506.71 [3]
- After hours: ~$505.89 [4]
- Day range: roughly $506.01 to $515.87 [5]
- Open: about $510.84 [6]
- Volume: about 1.25 million shares [7]
One important reminder for readers who see “S&P” and assume “index”: S&P Global (SPGI) is the company (ratings, data, indices), while the S&P 500 is the benchmark index it helps maintain and license.
What moved markets today—and why SPGI still slipped
Thursday’s macro headline was inflation. Reuters reported November CPI rose 2.7% year over year, below expectations, with core CPI at 2.6%, while also noting the prior data disruption tied to the government shutdown’s impact on collection. [8]
Markets generally treated the numbers as supportive for the “rates come down in 2026” storyline. The Associated Press reported the S&P 500 snapped a four-day losing streak, climbing to 6,774.76 (+0.8%) as Treasury yields fell and sentiment improved. [9]
So why did SPGI fall while the index rose?
- Rotation and positioning: On CPI days, flows can concentrate in the most rate-sensitive or momentum-heavy corners of the market, leaving “quality compounders” like SPGI to lag even if the longer-term macro read is supportive.
- Valuation sensitivity: Several market commentaries today framed SPGI’s multiple as demanding—one widely circulated valuation note explicitly questioned whether a mid-30s P/E is too rich for the current setup. [10]
- No incremental corporate catalyst after hours: The after-hours move was modest and consistent with a tape driven more by macro expectations than by SPGI-specific news. [11]
The most SPGI-relevant “today” headline: S&P Dow Jones Indices’ buybacks report
The most material SPGI-adjacent item released Thursday wasn’t a corporate earnings update—it was a market-structure datapoint from inside the franchise.
S&P Dow Jones Indices (part of S&P Global) published its latest S&P 500 buybacks update, showing a rebound in repurchases after a Q2 pullback:
- Q3 2025 buybacks:$249.0B, up 6.2% from Q2, and up 9.9% year over year [12]
- Trailing 12-month buybacks (ending Sept. 2025):$1.020T (record) [13]
- Q3 2025 dividends:$168.1B, and trailing 12-month dividends $664.9B (record) [14]
- The report also flagged the 1% net buyback excise tax as a measurable but relatively modest drag on earnings (fractions of a percent). [15]
Why that matters for SPGI investors—especially heading into year-end:
- It’s a reminder that SPGI isn’t just “a stock market brand.” It earns revenue from index licensing and data, and those products become more valuable when investors, asset managers, and issuers are highly active.
- Buyback intensity often tracks corporate confidence and cash-flow durability. That can feed back into credit markets (issuance, refinancing), which is where S&P Global’s ratings business makes money.
- Policy risk stays on the radar. The report itself notes how quickly the buyback-tax conversation can change in Washington. [16]
Analyst outlook: forecasts, price targets, and what the Street is watching
Consensus targets still point higher—but dispersion matters
Across covering analysts, one widely referenced consensus set of estimates puts SPGI’s average 12-month price target around $614.93, with a high of $661 and a low of $546. [17]
With SPGI closing at $506.71, that consensus implies notable upside—but the range also tells you something important: the Street’s disagreement isn’t about whether SPGI is a high-quality franchise; it’s about how much multiple investors should pay going into 2026.
Morgan Stanley’s “top pick” framing
In a sector outlook note published this week, Morgan Stanley named S&P Global a “top pick” for 2026, pointing to improving capital-markets conditions and a setup for stronger credit issuance—driven by M&A recovery, refinancing activity, and AI-related data center financing—which could support above-consensus ratings revenue growth. [18]
The valuation debate is now front-and-center
At least one widely circulated analysis published Thursday explicitly framed SPGI as trading at a mid-30s earnings multiple, sparking the “great company, pricey stock?” discussion. [19]
That doesn’t mean the stock can’t work—SPGI has historically commanded a premium—but it does raise the bar for what the market wants to see next: durable growth, operating leverage, and a friendly capital-markets cycle.
The macro link investors shouldn’t ignore: rates → issuance → SPGI’s earnings power
S&P Global’s business mix spans indices, market intelligence, commodity insights, and ratings. But for the stock’s cyclical swings, the Ratings segment (and capital-markets activity more broadly) often matters most.
When debt markets are active, rating volumes typically rise. That linkage is why investors paid close attention when Reuters reported in October that S&P Global raised its annual earnings forecasts on strong bond issuance activity supporting ratings growth. [20]
Thursday’s CPI surprise—and Friday’s PCE report—matter to SPGI because they can change the path for yields, and yields can change the economics of:
- refinancing (more issuance when rates fall),
- M&A financing (more deals when capital is cheaper),
- and structured finance activity.
What to know before the market opens Friday, Dec. 19, 2025
Friday’s premarket and early cash session could be shaped by scheduled data and market-structure volatility, not by SPGI-specific corporate news.
Key scheduled releases (all times ET)
Investing.com’s economic preview highlights several market-moving prints due Friday morning, including:
- 8:30 a.m. — Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; prior month cited as 0.2%) [21]
- 8:30 a.m. — Personal Income / Personal Spending (often moves rates alongside PCE) [22]
- 8:30 a.m. — Remarks from FOMC member John Williams [23]
- 10:00 a.m. — Existing Home Sales (Investing.com lists forecast 4.15M vs prior 4.10M) [24]
- 10:00 a.m. — University of Michigan consumer sentiment final readings [25]
MarketWatch’s calendar also flags Friday’s data and Fed-speaker slate, reinforcing that the open may be macro-driven. [26]
Don’t overlook “quadruple witching”
Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 is also quadruple witching—a major derivatives expiration that can amplify volume and volatility. Investopedia lists Dec. 19, 2025 as the December quadruple-witching date. [27]
This doesn’t dictate direction by itself, but it can create sharper intraday moves—especially around the open, the close, and any hedging “pin” effects near widely traded strikes.
A practical SPGI checklist for Friday’s open
If you’re tracking SPGI into Friday, here are the most relevant “if/then” setups:
- If PCE comes in cooler than feared: yields may fall, the market may lean into “more refinancing and issuance,” and SPGI can benefit from the improving capital-markets narrative—even if it doesn’t move tick-for-tick. [28]
- If PCE runs hot: yields can jump, and “higher-for-longer” worries can pressure premium-multiple data/analytics stocks while also raising questions about the pace of refinancing. [29]
- If volatility spikes because of options expiration: expect noisier moves that may not reflect fundamentals. [30]
The next major company catalyst: February earnings and 2026 guidance
Beyond Friday’s macro event risk, the next “hard” SPGI catalyst investors are circling is Q4 earnings in February—when the company has said it expects to provide 2026 guidance.
- Nasdaq’s earnings page shows an estimated earnings date of Feb. 10, 2026 (algorithm-based and subject to change). [31]
- S&P Global has also stated it does not expect to provide financial guidance for 2026 until its fourth-quarter earnings in February 2026. [32]
Bottom line
As of after-hours Thursday, SPGI is modestly lower and heading into a Friday session that could be dominated by Core PCE inflation data and options-expiration dynamics. [33]
For longer-term investors, the most important threads to monitor remain unchanged:
- whether the capital-markets cycle is improving (issuance/refinancing/M&A),
- how SPGI’s premium valuation is justified by growth and margins, and
- how the company converts market activity into recurring revenue across Ratings, Market Intelligence, and Indices. [34]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. finance.yahoo.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. apnews.com, 10. finance.yahoo.com, 11. finance.yahoo.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. www.prnewswire.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. investor.spglobal.com, 33. finance.yahoo.com, 34. www.reuters.com
