New York, Feb 10, 2026, 12:53 ET — Regular session
- SPGI shares fall after 2026 profit outlook lands below expectations
- Company flags slower growth outlook; Mobility spin timing stays in focus
- Next datapoint on billed issuance and derivatives due Feb. 17
S&P Global shares fell about 7% to $412.00 in midday New York trading, after the financial data and ratings provider posted results and laid out a 2026 outlook that investors read as cautious.
The company said fourth-quarter revenue rose 9% to $3.916 billion and adjusted earnings were $4.30 per share, and it forecast 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $19.40 to $19.65 on organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6% to 8% (a measure that strips out currency swings and deal impact). CEO Martina Cheung said the “pace of AI integration” was “a leap forward,” while the company said it will provide 2026 GAAP guidance after completing a planned Mobility spin, expected mid-2026; it also said it returned $6.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 and set a quarterly dividend of $0.97. SEC
That EPS range came in below analysts’ average estimate of $19.94, weighing on the stock as investors debate whether new AI tools will strengthen demand for proprietary datasets or chip away at pricing power in parts of the financial software stack. The anxiety has bled into other information-services names, with peers such as FactSet, Moody’s, Verisk and Nasdaq also under pressure.
“The AI anxiety will likely linger, and the shares could be under pressure today unless there is a good explanation on the call,” analysts at ClearStreet wrote. MarketScreener
S&P Global makes money across credit ratings, indices and analytics businesses that can move with market activity, plus subscription-heavy units that lean on recurring contracts. When issuance slows, ratings fees can cool quickly; when markets swing, index-linked revenue can move with assets tied to benchmarks.
One line item investors keep circling is “billed issuance” — essentially the dollar amount of debt issuance that generates ratings fees. Management flagged strong billed issuance in the quarter, but traders tend to treat that as a variable, not a promise.
The Mobility spin adds another moving part. The company said the timing is uncertain enough that it is not offering GAAP guidance yet, and it warned it cannot reliably predict all components of those GAAP measures ahead of the separation.
That uncertainty matters now because the stock has traded like a premium “data and tools” name, and the market is getting less forgiving when growth targets soften. A small shift in the forward earnings path can hit valuation fast.
But the downside case is simple: if debt issuance fades, deal activity stays patchy, or customers tighten data budgets, the company’s mix could skew toward slower lines just as new AI-driven workflows give clients leverage on price.
Traders also watch the “what counts as moats” argument. If AI models make it easier to replicate basic analytics, providers may need to prove their edge is hard-to-copy content, not just packaging.
The next near-term catalyst is the company’s new monthly update on billed issuance and exchange-traded derivatives data, which should land on Feb. 17 because Feb. 15 falls on a Sunday and U.S. equity markets are shut Feb. 16 for Washington’s Birthday.
