SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) Surges 60% in 2025: Latest News, Fed Cut Bets and 2026 Gold Price Forecast

As gold races through one of its strongest years in modern history, the SPDR Gold Trust — better known as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD) — sits near record highs, with investors fixated on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and a wave of bold Wall Street calls for gold to approach $5,000/oz by 2026. ^[1]

This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts and analyses available through the weekend of December 6–7, 2025, and explains what they may mean for GLD holders and would‑be buyers.

Where GLD Stands After the December 5 Close

As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025 — the last trading day before the weekend of December 6–7:

Closing price: GLD finished at $386.44, down about 0.2% on the day. The ETF traded between $386.17 and $391.73 with volume of roughly 9.45 million shares. ^[2]
Net asset value & gold price: State Street (the manager) reports a NAV of $390.26 per share and an LBMA Gold Price PM of $4,243/oz as of December 5. ^[3]
Assets under management: GLD controls over $140 billion in gold, making it by far the largest physically backed gold ETF in the world. ^[4]
2025 performance: PortfolioLab estimates GLD has gained about 59.6% year‑to‑date and roughly 59% over the last 12 months, comfortably beating the S&P 500’s ~17% YTD return. ^[5]
Risk‑adjusted returns: GLD’s 1‑year Sharpe ratio of 3.07 (vs. ~0.69 for the S&P 500) places it in the top few percent of ETFs for risk‑adjusted performance. ^[6]

In short: GLD is no longer a sleepy hedge. In 2025 it has behaved like a high‑momentum growth asset, but with a very different risk profile from equities.

What Exactly Is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)?

Although it trades like a stock, GLD is technically a grantor trust that holds allocated physical gold bars in vaults on behalf of investors. Each share represents a fractional, undivided interest in the underlying bullion. ^[7]

Key structural features:

Objective: Track the spot price of gold bullion (LBMA Gold Price PM), before fees and expenses. ^[8]
Structure: Physically backed trust, no leverage, and no active management — it does not trade futures or mining shares. ^[9]
Expense ratio:0.40% per year, which independent data providers describe as “medium” among commodity ETFs. ^[10]
Income: GLD does not pay dividends; its return is driven almost entirely by the gold price. ^[11]

A December 6 article from NAI500, comparing SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) with iShares Silver Trust (SLV), underscores GLD’s role as the “stable” leg of a precious‑metals allocation: lower volatility than silver, giant asset base, and deep liquidity, at the cost of that 0.40% annual fee. ^[12]

Fresh Headlines Since December 6: Momentum, Options Signals and Allocation Debates

1. Holiday breakout talk and a new GLD options “buy” signal

A widely circulated MarketWatch piece (syndicated via Morningstar and other platforms on December 5) argues that the U.S. stock market is “verging on a holiday breakout” — and that gold and silver are being pulled higher with it. ^[13]

Crucially for GLD:

The article notes that a new weighted put‑call ratio signal has turned bullish on GLD after a surge in put buying during the prior correction.
The author highlights a bullish call spread idea: buying January GLD 390 calls and selling 415 calls, betting on further upside but capping risk. ^[14]

Options data back up the sentiment shift:

Fintel reports GLD’s open‑interest put/call ratio at about 0.53, meaning there are nearly twice as many call options open as puts — a bullish skew. ^[15]
AlphaQuery shows the 120‑day put‑call volume ratio for GLD fell to roughly 0.15 by December 5, indicating call volume has dominated in recent months. ^[16]

Put simply, options traders have been leaning long GLD, reinforcing the momentum story.

2. “Gold on pace for weekly win” as Fed cut odds surge

Several outlets (Yahoo Finance, GoldSeek and MetalsDaily) picked up a December 5 story describing gold as “on pace to eke out a weekly win” as traders ramp up bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. ^[17]

Key points from that reporting:

Gold is in the middle of a “historic 2025 rally,” with prices up more than 50% year‑to‑date and near all‑time highs above $4,000/oz. ^[18]
The immediate driver for the latest bounce is growing confidence in a December rate cut, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold.

Since GLD holds physical bullion, this macro story feeds straight into its price.

3. GLD vs. SLV: New December 6 allocation piece

On December 6, NAI500 published “How to Allocate Gold and Silver Through Mainstream ETFs?” focusing on GLD and SLV. ^[19]

Highlights:

Cost and size:
- GLD: 0.40% fee, older, and significantly larger in assets.
- SLV: 0.50% fee, focused on silver rather than gold.
Volatility: SLV is described as “significantly more volatile” than GLD; in the short term, silver has outperformed gold over the last year, but five‑year total returns are similar between the two funds.
Investor takeaway: The article frames GLD as the choice for investors prioritizing stability and inflation hedging, while SLV suits those willing to embrace larger swings for potentially higher short‑term returns.

This piece reinforces GLD’s status as the default “core” precious‑metal ETF in most portfolios.

4. Central banks quietly underpin the rally

On December 2, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported that central banks bought a net 53 tonnes of gold in October, the strongest monthly total of 2025 and 36% above September. ^[20]

By the end of October:

Year‑to‑date net purchases reached about 254 tonnes.
The buying was led by Poland, Brazil, Uzbekistan and several Asian and emerging‑market central banks, and WGC notes that many central banks plan to further increase reserves in the coming years. ^[21]

This official‑sector demand has been a major structural tailwind for both gold and GLD. When central banks drain physical supply, ETFs like GLD become a convenient way for other investors to gain exposure without competing for bars.

5. Investor survey: Gold and tech seen as 2026 winners

An Axios report on December 1 — echoed by GoldSeek and other aggregators — summarized a Goldman Sachs survey of more than 900 institutional investors:

Respondents are “doubling down on gold” and staying overweight Big Tech heading into 2026.
Gold’s 2025 surge and heavy central bank buying are cited as reasons to maintain exposure.
The survey suggests investors expect current trends — including AI‑driven tech leadership and a global rate‑cut cycle — to persist into next year. ^[22]

For GLD, this implies that institutional appetite is still strong, even after the massive rally.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Cuts, Government Shutdown and the “Debasement Trade”

Fed cut odds near 85% for December

Two recent Reuters articles, widely read by macro traders, set the stage for gold’s current run:

On December 1, Bank of America flipped its forecast and now expects a quarter‑point Fed rate cut at the December meeting, followed by two more cuts in 2026, taking the Fed funds rate to around 3.0–3.25%. Markets price the odds of a December cut near 88%. ^[23]
A December 5 “Wall Street Week Ahead” piece notes that the Fed is unusually split internally, but that markets still see roughly an 84% probability of a December cut. The article stresses that guidance for 2026 may matter more for asset prices than the single December move. ^[24]

Lower policy rates are typically supportive for gold and GLD because they reduce the yield advantage of cash and bonds.

Street forecasts: Gold to $4,900–$5,000 by 2026?

Wall Street houses are openly discussing $5,000 gold as a serious possibility:

A Benzinga/WGC‑based outlook from December 4 notes that gold, tracked by GLD, has delivered roughly 60.6% gains through early December and more than 50 new all‑time highs in 2025. It attributes the move to a blend of geopolitics, a weaker dollar and lower rates, momentum flows, and ongoing economic expansion, plus additional support from central bank purchases and ETF inflows of around 700 tonnes since the start of the year. ^[25]
Goldman Sachs recently reiterated a target of about $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, calling this year’s weakness a “blip” in a broader bull market. ^[26]
Bank of America and UBS have floated scenarios in which gold could reach or exceed $5,000/oz, especially if investment demand rises further. Articles summarizing their views highlight that ETFs like GLD and IAU have seen outsized inflows and that a modest further increase in investment demand could push prices to those levels. ^[27]
A State Street 2026 gold outlook, published in early December, frames $5,000 as a bull‑case but plausible outcome, assigning roughly 30% probability to gold hitting that level if central bank and Chinese retail demand hold up and ETF flows run at 75–100% of 2025’s pace. It places a bear‑case range at $3,500–$4,000 with about 20% probability. ^[28]

All of this matters for GLD because it’s essentially a wrapper around spot gold. If these forecasts are anywhere close to correct, GLD remains tightly linked to that upside — and to the downside if those assumptions fail.

GLD’s 2025 Performance in Context

Independent analysis from PortfoliosLab shows just how extraordinary 2025 has been for GLD: ^[29]

YTD return: ~59.6%
10‑year annualized return: ~14.15% vs. about 12.78% for the S&P 500
1‑month return: +5.4%
6‑month return: +26.6%

Risk metrics are equally striking:

1‑year Sharpe ratio: 3.07 (vs. 0.69 for S&P 500)
Sortino ratio: 3.84
Calmar ratio: 5.77

These numbers suggest that, over the last year, GLD has delivered equity‑like or better returns with extremely strong risk‑adjusted characteristics. Of course, those figures are backward‑looking and assume the rally continues — which is far from guaranteed.

Short‑Term Technical and AI‑Based Views

Technical indicators: Slightly soft after a huge run

On December 5, Investing.com’s daily technical summary for GLD showed: ^[30]

A “Sell” skew in its composite indicator (5 Sell vs 2 Buy, 2 Neutral)
Mixed oscillator signals, with some oversold readings like StochRSI and Williams %R, and others pointing to short‑term weakness

This is consistent with a market that has run very far, very fast and is pausing or consolidating rather than clearly reversing.

StockInvest: “Buy candidate” with 13% upside over 3 months

StockInvest.us, which uses its own quantitative system, updated its GLD forecast on December 5: ^[31]

GLD closed at $386.44, down slightly, but remains in the lower part of a broad rising trend channel.
Their model has classified GLD as a “buy candidate” since November 24, with a gain of about 1.6% since that signal.
Based on the current trend, they estimate a 13.1% potential rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability that GLD will trade between roughly $428 and $485 by early March 2026.
They note a short‑term moving‑average sell signal, but a longer‑term buy signal, plus a positive MACD, which together support a constructive medium‑term view.

This is, of course, one model’s opinion, but it lines up with the idea of a powerful uptrend experiencing short‑term noise.

AI score: GLD still rated “Buy”

Danelfin, an AI‑based ETF analytics platform, gives GLD a “Buy” rating as of December 6, with an AI Score of around 7–8/10 and an estimated three‑month outperformance probability in the mid‑60% range versus the average U.S. stock. ^[32]

Again, this is not a guarantee, but it shows that machine‑learning models trained on historical patterns still view GLD as statistically attractive, even after its spectacular 2025 rally.

How GLD Fits Into Portfolios Right Now

Diversification and correlation

Etfreplay and other analytics tools show GLD’s volatility around 19–20% (similar to the S&P 500 in 2025) but with a very low correlation (~0.05) to the index. ^[33]

That combination — equity‑like volatility but low correlation — makes GLD a powerful diversifier, which is one reason institutions and central banks have leaned into gold this year.

ETF flows: GLD at the center of a gold tsunami

ETF.com reported back in September that GLD took in about $2.2 billion in a single day, the largest inflow in its 21‑year history, and roughly $12.9 billion year‑to‑date at that point. ^[34]

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council estimates global gold ETFs added roughly 700 tonnes in 2025, with cumulative holdings up about 850 tonnes since May 2024. ^[35]

Because GLD is the flagship product in this category, it has captured a large share of these flows, helping to:

Support its price during dips
Reinforce gold’s role as part of a broader “debasement trade” against fiat currencies and ballooning sovereign debt

2026 Outlook for Gold and GLD: Three Big Scenarios

Blending the World Gold Council, State Street, Goldman Sachs and street research, three broad scenarios emerge for 2026: ^[36]

Moderate Upside (“Shallow Slip”) – Gold +5% to +15%
- Fed cuts continue, but not aggressively.
- Growth slows, inflation drifts down, the dollar softens.
- Central banks and Asian retail buyers remain active; ETF flows are positive but lower than 2025.
- GLD would likely deliver high‑single‑digit to mid‑teens gains in this environment.
Crisis‑Driven Surge (“Doom Loop”) – Gold +15% to +30%
- Geopolitical shocks, financial‑market de‑risking or a hard landing push investors toward safe havens.
- Fed slashes rates quickly; bond yields fall, volatility spikes.
- Gold ETF inflows reaccelerate and central banks keep buying.
- GLD could see another year of double‑digit returns — on top of 2025’s huge move — but that upside would come in a highly stressed macro backdrop.
Reflation & Strong Dollar (“Reflation Return”) – Gold −5% to −20%
- A successful pro‑growth fiscal push, stronger productivity (for example from AI) and resilient consumer demand lift real yields and the dollar.
- The Fed pauses or even hints at hikes instead of more cuts.
- Investors rotate back to equities and higher‑yielding assets; gold ETF holdings shrink.
- GLD could see a material correction, retracing part of its 2025 climb.

None of these are certainties — and there’s a wide range of paths between them — but they illustrate that 2026 may be more about path‑dependent macro outcomes than about whether gold is “cheap” or “expensive” relative to history.

Key Risks for GLD Investors

Before jumping into a trade after reading the headlines, it’s worth stressing the main risks:

Mean reversion after a record year
- With GLD up ~60% in 2025 and gold spot up more than 50%, a period of sideways or negative returns would not be surprising, even in a structurally bullish environment. ^[37]
Rate and dollar surprises
- If the Fed cuts less than markets expect — or if the dollar strengthens due to growth outperformance or political developments — gold can fall quickly. ^[38]
Positioning risk
- Options data, ETF flows and survey results all show that gold is a crowded trade. When positioning is one‑sided, small narrative shifts can trigger sharp corrections. ^[39]
Tracking and liquidity risk
- GLD usually tracks gold closely, but in periods of extreme stress, ETFs can trade at small premiums or discounts to NAV, and liquidity conditions can change. State Street itself warns that ETFs may trade above or below NAV and that investing in commodities is not suitable for all investors. ^[40]

Bottom Line: GLD Is Still the Core Vehicle for the Gold Trade

As of early December 2025:

GLD is near record highs, up nearly 60% this year and massively outperforming major equity indices. ^[41]
Macro tailwinds — Fed cut expectations, central bank buying, and concerns about currency debasement — remain in place. ^[42]
Institutional and retail positioning is strongly bullish, with options markets, ETF flows and professional surveys all pointing to continued enthusiasm heading into 2026. ^[43]

At the same time, the latest technical and fundamental analyses suggest a market that is extended but not necessarily exhausted: short‑term indicators are mixed to slightly cautious, while medium‑term models still lean positive. ^[44]

For investors, that means GLD now looks less like a simple “set‑and‑forget” hedge and more like a high‑conviction macro bet:

If the global rate‑cut cycle deepens, central banks keep buying and risk assets wobble, GLD could benefit further.
If growth holds up, the dollar strengthens and the Fed turns more hawkish, some of 2025’s outsized gains may give way to painful drawdowns.

As always, any decision to buy, hold or sell GLD should be based on your own risk tolerance, time horizon and overall portfolio mix. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.