SQ Stock Today: Afterpay Probe, $5 Billion Buyback and Holiday Surge Redefine Block’s 2026 Outlook

Updated: December 7, 2025

Block, Inc. (NYSE: SQ) has had a wild end to 2025. After a sharp selloff on disappointing third‑quarter earnings and fresh regulatory scrutiny of its Afterpay buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) unit, the stock is now trading near the low $60s — roughly 30% below where it started the year and far below its 2021 highs. ^[1]

At the same time, Block just delivered strong holiday transaction numbers, unveiled a more aggressive share repurchase program, secured a credit rating upgrade from Moody’s, and laid out an ambitious multi‑year growth plan at its first investor day since 2022. ^[2]

Here’s what investors need to know about SQ stock right now — from the latest numbers to the evolving bull and bear cases.

Where SQ Stock Stands Now

Block shares closed at about $61.11 on December 5, 2025, after a choppy few weeks that included multiple single‑day moves of 6–10%. ^[3]

Based on roughly 609 million shares outstanding, that price implies a market capitalization in the neighborhood of $37 billion, placing Block solidly in large‑cap territory but well below its peak valuation during the pandemic fintech boom. ^[4]

A few snapshot metrics from recent data:

12‑month performance: Market cap down about 30% over the last year. ^[5]
52‑week range: Roughly $44 to $99 per share. ^[6]
Valuation: Trailing P/E around 12–17x depending on the data source and earnings definition; PEG ratio about 2.5. ^[7]
Balance sheet: Current ratio around 2.2 and debt‑to‑equity near 0.25, indicating solid liquidity and relatively modest leverage for a growth‑oriented fintech. ^[8]

The headline: SQ is no longer priced like a hyper‑growth story, but the business is still growing in the mid‑teens and throwing off rising profits and cash flow.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Growth in the Right Places, Pain in the Wrong Ones

Block’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 6, are the starting point for most of the recent volatility. ^[9]

Key numbers:

Revenue: About $6.11 billion, missing Wall Street estimates of roughly $6.3 billion. ^[10]
Adjusted EPS: Around $0.54, below forecasts of roughly $0.63, a mid‑teens percentage miss. ^[11]
Gross profit:$2.66 billion, up 18% year‑over‑year, slightly ahead of expectations. ^[12]
Operating profitability: GAAP operating income of about $409 million, up from $323 million a year earlier, but still below analyst expectations for adjusted operating income. ^[13]

Segment trends were the real story:

Cash App gross profit grew around 24% year‑over‑year, driven by lending (Cash App Borrow), BNPL via Afterpay, and Cash App Card. ^[14]
Square (merchant) gross profit rose a more modest 9%, even as Square’s gross payment volume (GPV) climbed 12% to about $67.2 billion, with U.S. GPV up 8.9% and international GPV up 26%. ^[15]

The market’s reaction was harsh:

SQ fell roughly 8–11% in a single session following the earnings release, making it one of the biggest losers in the S&P 500 that day. ^[16]
As of early November, the stock was down about 25% year‑to‑date, a figure that has worsened slightly since then. ^[17]

Investors largely focused on:

The EPS and revenue miss, in a market that has been punishing any shortfall. ^[18]
A roughly $70 million jump in general and administrative expenses, partly tied to a large in‑person corporate event, which muddied the margin picture. ^[19]
Signs that Square’s profit growth is lagging volume growth, raising questions about merchant pricing power and mix. ^[20]

Paradoxically, Block raised its full‑year 2025 outlook even as the stock slid.

Guidance and Multi‑Year Outlook: Management Is Still Confident

Despite the messy optics of Q3, Block used both its shareholder letter and its November investor day to raise guidance and sketch out a relatively upbeat 2026 trajectory. ^[21]

For 2025, management now expects:

Full‑year gross profit: About $10.24 billion, more than 15% growth vs. 2024.
Full‑year adjusted operating income: Roughly $2.06 billion, implying a 20% margin on gross profit and nearly 30% growth year‑over‑year. ^[22]

For Q4 2025, Block is guiding to:

Gross profit of $2.755 billion, up about 19% year‑over‑year.
Adjusted operating income of $560 million, again a 20% margin. ^[23]

At Investor Day 2025 (Nov. 19), Block went further and outlined a 2026 framework: ^[24]

2026 gross profit: Expected to grow 17% to roughly $12 billion.
Adjusted operating income & EPS: Both projected to grow 30%+ in 2026.
Non‑GAAP cash flow targeted at around 20% of gross profit (about $2.4 billion).

UBS came away from the event reiterating its Buy rating and $90 price target, arguing that guidance is broadly in line with or slightly ahead of Street expectations through 2026 and clearly ahead in 2028. ^[25]

$5 Billion Share Buyback: Signal or Just Support?

To underline its confidence, Block’s board approved a $5 billion increase to the company’s existing share repurchase program, announced the same day as Investor Day. ^[26]

Commentary around the buyback has emphasized three angles:

Vote of confidence: Expanding the authorization just as the stock slides into the low $60s suggests management believes the intrinsic value is materially higher. Some coverage framed it as an opportunity to retire stock at depressed valuations while growth and margins improve. ^[27]
Offsetting dilution: Block historically has granted significant stock‑based compensation, especially in engineering and product roles. A larger buyback helps offset that, stabilizing share count over time.
Balance‑sheet capacity: Moody’s upgrade of Block’s corporate family rating to Ba1 with a stable outlook cited stronger profitability, rising EBITDA margins, and excellent liquidity — including about $8.7 billion in cash and equivalents as of September 30 and expectations for around $2 billion in free cash flow (before lending originations) in 2026. ^[28]

In other words, the buyback doesn’t look reckless given Block’s current leverage and cash generation, but it does increase the importance of actually hitting those growth and margin targets.

Afterpay and the BNPL Crackdown: The New Overhang on SQ

The biggest new risk on investors’ minds is regulatory pressure on BNPL — and specifically on Block’s Afterpay unit.

Two major developments arrived in rapid succession:

On November 18, 2025, several U.S. Senate Democrats sent letters to BNPL providers, including Afterpay, requesting detailed information on their loan products, underwriting, fees, and consumer outcomes, amid concerns that BNPL is being used to finance everyday essentials without traditional credit protections. ^[29]
On December 1, 2025, a coalition of seven state attorneys general led by Connecticut and North Carolina launched a coordinated inquiry into BNPL lenders — explicitly naming Block‑owned Afterpay alongside Affirm, Klarna, PayPal, Zip and Sezzle. They requested data on default rates, pricing structures, contracts and repayment practices to assess potential consumer harm and compliance with state consumer‑protection laws. ^[30]

Press coverage has described this as a “state reckoning” for BNPL now that federal regulators have pulled back from a comprehensive rule, leaving a patchwork of state actions instead. ^[31]

For Block, this is not just a reputational risk:

In Q3, BNPL GMV reached about $9.7 billion, with BNPL gross profit around $299 million, growing in the high‑teens to low‑20s percent range year‑over‑year. ^[32]
BNPL now feeds not only Afterpay but also Cash App Card and related products, making it increasingly central to Block’s consumer ecosystem. ^[33]

So when headlines framed the new inquiries as an “Afterpay probe,” SQ sold off again. Simply Wall St and Yahoo Finance noted that Block stock fell about 6–8.5% in early December as investors tried to gauge how much regulatory drag BNPL might impose on long‑term profitability. ^[34]

The nuance: neither the Senate letter nor the state AG letters are formal charges or enforcement actions. They’re information‑gathering steps. But they clearly raise the odds of future rules that could:

Force more rigorous affordability checks (raising costs and friction).
Expand disclosures similar to credit cards.
Tighten fee structures or cap penalties.

Because BNPL has been one of Cash App’s fastest‑growing profit drivers, any regulatory squeeze here matters a lot to the SQ equity story.

Holiday 2025: A Reminder of Block’s Scale

While regulation grabbed headlines, Block’s holiday data painted a very different picture — one of scale and momentum.

In a December 2 release, Block reported that across Black Friday–Cyber Monday, it processed more than 124 million transactions across Square, Cash App and Afterpay, up about 10% from the same period a year ago. ^[35]

Other highlights from Block’s and third‑party data:

Roughly 1.3+ million businesses and nearly 50 million consumers engaged with Block’s platforms over the long weekend. ^[36]
The company emphasized a shift toward local spending, supported by its new Cash App “Neighborhoods” feature that connects nearby consumers to Square sellers with storefronts inside Cash App and on the web. ^[37]
Industry‑wide BNPL spending hit more than $10 billion from early November through Cyber Monday, up about 9% year‑over‑year, according to Adobe data cited by The Washington Post — with Afterpay among the key beneficiaries. ^[38]

This combination of growing scale and BNPL adoption is exactly why regulators care — and why investors are wrestling with whether Afterpay becomes a structural headwind or stays a growth tailwind.

Cash App, AI and Bitcoin: The Growth Engines Under the Hood

Beyond the quarter‑to‑quarter noise, Block is still methodically expanding the capabilities of its two main ecosystems: Square for merchants and Cash App for consumers.

Recent product and platform moves include:

Cash App Releases (Nov. 2025): Block rolled out 11 product updates and more than 150 incremental improvements in one bundled launch, including:
- More flexible banking features (e.g., enhanced paycheck tools).
- AI‑powered navigation to surface relevant features and services.
- The ability to send and receive stablecoins, along with stronger safety controls. ^[39]
Neighborhoods: Cash App now showcases local Square sellers in a dedicated experience, effectively turning the app into a discovery engine for nearby merchants. Square sellers get branded storefronts and pay about a 1% transaction fee across payment methods. ^[40]
Afterpay on Cash App Card: Block has been rolling out Afterpay functionality on Cash App’s debit card, letting users tap BNPL at checkout and deepening engagement across products. ^[41]
Square AI & Square Bitcoin: Coverage in Fast Company highlighted how Block is launching new AI‑driven tools for merchants (pricing, marketing, back‑office automation) and expanding “Square Bitcoin” efforts, aiming to make Bitcoin‑based transactions and financial services more accessible inside its ecosystem. ^[42]

Internally, Block says it now has 26 different revenue streams each generating more than $100 million in gross profit, up from just five in 2020 — a data point UBS flagged as evidence of durable diversification. ^[43]

The trade‑off: some of these businesses, particularly anything tied to Bitcoin, also make reported earnings more volatile. For example, in Q3 2025 net income included a $60 million Bitcoin remeasurement gain and $171 million of gains from equity investment revaluations — swings that may not reflect the underlying operating performance. ^[44]

How Wall Street Rates SQ Stock Right Now

Despite the recent selloff and regulatory jitters, analysts remain broadly constructive on Block.

A few consensus snapshots:

MarketBeat:
- 37 analysts; “Moderate Buy” rating.
- 1 sell, 12 holds, 24 buys (including 3 strong buys).
- Average 12‑month price target: $83.42, implying about 37% upside from ~$61. ^[45]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 31 analysts; “Buy” consensus.
- Average price target: $80.06, about 31% upside.
- Targets span $50 to $105, underscoring wide disagreement about the right multiple for SQ. ^[46]
UBS: Reiterated Buy with a $90 target after Investor Day, highlighting Block’s 39% five‑year revenue CAGR, 26+ significant revenue streams, and high ROI on marketing spend (2x for Square, 9x for Cash App over three years, according to UBS). ^[47]

Recent individual rating actions include:

Needham: Strong Buy, $80 target, reiterated Nov. 24.
Mizuho: Buy, target raised from $88 to $100 on Nov. 20.
RBC Capital: Buy, $90 target reiterated Nov. 20. ^[48]

If you aggregate these views, most of Wall Street sees SQ as undervalued growth with 30–40% potential upside over 12 months — provided Block executes on its profit and cash‑flow roadmap and the BNPL situation doesn’t spiral into heavy‑handed regulation.

Institutional and Credit Signals

Recent moves from big financial players are also shaping sentiment:

Marshall Wace LLP, a major hedge fund, disclosed a new stake of about 1.51 million shares (roughly 0.25% of Block) valued around $103 million in the latest quarter. The same filing noted that around 70% of Block’s shares are now held by institutions. ^[49]
Company insiders have been net sellers over the last three months, unloading roughly 99,000 shares worth about $7 million, though insiders still own over 10% of the company. ^[50]
Moody’s upgrade of Block’s corporate family rating to Ba1 with a stable outlook cited:
- EBITDA margins rising from near breakeven in 2022 to high‑teens as a percentage of gross profit by late 2025.
- Strong liquidity (~$8.7 billion in cash and short‑term investments).
- Expected mid‑teens gross profit growth with incremental margin expansion and debt/EBITDA maintained below 4x. ^[51]

Together, these suggest that while SQ remains volatile equity, credit markets and many professional investors see Block as fundamentally stronger and more mature than it was a few years ago.

The Bear Case: Why Some Investors Are Still Skeptical

Despite all the bullish talking points, there are real reasons SQ trades cheaply relative to its pandemic glory days.

The main worries:

Regulatory and credit risk in BNPL and lending
BNPL has moved from novelty to household budgeting tool — and regulators are now catching up. Afterpay’s growing importance to Cash App’s economics means any clampdown on fees, underwriting, or collections could directly hit growth and margins. ^[52]
Slower Square profit growth vs. payment volume
Square’s GPV is growing low double‑digits, but gross profit growth is in the high single digits. That spread worries investors who want to see stronger monetization and operating leverage from the merchant business, not just volume gains. ^[53]
Cost discipline still being proven
Q3’s G&A spike — even if partly one‑time — was exactly what investors did not want to see from a company that has spent the last two years promising more discipline. Bulls argue that full‑year margin guidance shows the underlying cost curve is improving; bears worry about re‑acceleration of spending if growth re‑accelerates. ^[54]
Earnings quality and Bitcoin exposure
Gains and losses from Bitcoin and equity investments can make reported net income swing wildly, complicating valuation and increasing perceived risk — especially for more traditional investors. ^[55]
Competition from PayPal, Affirm, banks and neobanks
While not new, competitive pressure in both merchant acquiring and consumer wallets remains intense. Several rivals are pushing their own BNPL, debit, and super‑app strategies, and regulators won’t only be looking at Afterpay.

The Bull Case: What Needs to Go Right for SQ

On the other side, the bull case for SQ in late 2025 rests on a few core ideas:

Two‑sided network, still early in monetization
Block’s thesis remains that Square merchants and Cash App consumers reinforce each other — Neighborhoods, Cash App Card, and Afterpay inside Cash App are all about deepening that loop. If Block keeps raising gross profit per user and per seller, the stock can grow into a higher valuation even without spectacular top‑line growth. ^[56]
Mid‑teens gross profit growth + ~20% margins = “Rule of 40” territory
With gross profit growing ~15–19% and adjusted operating income margins around 20%, Block is approaching the software‑style “Rule of 40” (growth + margin ≥ 40), which many investors use to justify premium multiples for profitable growth names. ^[57]
Structural diversification across 26+ revenue lines
Having more than two dozen meaningful revenue streams reduces dependence on any single product or geography. Even if BNPL is pressured, Cash App’s banking, P2P, card, and investing features plus Square’s software and banking products can carry more of the load. ^[58]
Buyback and valuation cushion
At a low‑teens earnings multiple and with a multi‑billion‑dollar buyback in place, bulls argue that downside is cushioned unless growth structurally slows or regulators fundamentally reshape BNPL economics. ^[59]

In short: for bulls, SQ in the low $60s is a classic “good company, temporarily unpopular stock” situation.

Bottom Line: SQ Stock at a Crossroads

As of December 7, 2025, SQ sits at an awkward but interesting intersection:

Fundamentals: Mid‑teens gross profit growth, improving margins, a stronger balance sheet, and a clear multi‑year plan. ^[60]
Headwinds: Real regulatory and credit risk around BNPL and lending, plus ongoing questions about Square’s profitability and Block’s cost discipline. ^[61]
Valuation & sentiment: A stock down roughly 30% over 12 months, trading at a compressed multiple, but still rated Buy/Moderate Buy by most analysts with 30–40% implied upside from consensus price targets. ^[62]

Whether SQ belongs in a portfolio now depends less on guessing the next quarter and more on how you think three forces resolve over the next 2–3 years:

Regulators vs. BNPL economics for Afterpay and Cash App Borrow.
Square’s ability to turn volume into higher‑margin profit, not just GPV growth.
Block’s execution on its investor‑day roadmap for margins, cash flow, and thoughtful capital return.

The numbers say Block is no longer priced like a perfection story. The open question — and the core of the SQ stock debate heading into 2026 — is whether the company can prove it deserves something more than a “show me” multiple again.