Indian equities head into Thursday’s session with a tailwind from cooling domestic inflation, a dip in global bond yields, and a sharp slide in crude. Gift Nifty is pointing to a broadly flat-to-softer start as traders parse overnight cues and a busy earnings tape.
1) Gift Nifty hints at a cautious open
Gift Nifty futures were near 25,942, down about 0.06% in early trades (02:48 IST), suggesting a muted open for the Nifty 50.
2) Wall Street mixed; Dow closes at a record, yields ease
The Dow notched another record close even as the Nasdaq slipped, with U.S. Treasury yields edging lower on rising odds of easier Fed policy and optimism around a pending end to the U.S. government shutdown.
3) Oil tumbles over $2/bbl—positive for India’s macros
Brent settled at $62.71 and WTI at $58.49 overnight after OPEC projected 2026 supply would match demand—its most balanced outlook in years. Softer crude is a clear positive for India’s current account and inflation trajectory.
4) Rupee steady; watch USD/INR after CPI shock
The rupee closed at 88.63 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday. With domestic inflation plunging and oil easing, currency watchers will look for near‑term stability, barring global dollar swings.
5) Record‑low CPI turbocharges December rate‑cut hopes
India’s October CPI collapsed to 0.25% y/y, the lowest on record, led by a steep fall in food prices and the pass‑through from GST cuts on mass‑consumption items. Economists now flag a strong chance of an RBI rate cut at the 3–5 December MPC.
6) Bonds anchored; 10‑year yield hovers around 6.5%
Benchmark 10‑year G‑sec yields remain close to 6.5%, with traders balancing the CPI surprise, global risk appetite and RBI’s policy path into December.
7) WPI due Friday—another data point for the easing debate
Wholesale inflation for October 2025 is scheduled for Friday, 14 November, keeping the macro calendar busy and relevant for rate expectations.
8) Wednesday recap: Nifty and Sensex extended gains
On 12 Nov, the Sensex rose 595 points to 84,466.51, and Nifty 50 climbed 180.85 points to 25,875.80, led by IT, autos and select consumer names.
9) SEBI signals market‑friendly reforms; panel presses for more transparency
SEBI’s new chief said the regulator will speed up foreign investor onboarding, review cash‑market margins and short‑selling mechanisms, and defer T+0 settlement for now—moves aimed at deepening cash markets and easing access. Separately, a panel recommended mandatory public asset disclosures for the chair and senior officials to bolster trust.
10) Key stocks in focus: results & news flow
- Asian Paints: Q2 FY26 profit up ~43% on strong decorative volumes; shares rallied on Wednesday. Watch leadership spillover to peers.
- Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL): Q2 profit up ~10.5%; stock slipped as margins missed guidance—margin commentary will be key today.
- Tata Steel: Q2 PAT ~₹31.0 bn, ~4x y/y; revenue up ~9%. Global price commentary and Europe operations in focus.
- SpiceJet: Wider quarterly loss on weak traffic and higher forex losses; aviation pack may react.
- IGL: Q2 net profit fell ~14% even as revenue rose; city‑gas names could see rotation.
- Info Edge: Q2 net profit surged on a one‑time gain; interim dividend announced.
- Ashok Leyland: Q2 steady profit, interim dividend declared; watch management outlook on CV demand.
What’s driving sentiment this morning
Global setup: Risk tone improved as investors bet on a U.S. reopening and nearer‑term Fed cuts; U.S. 10‑year yields eased to ~4.07%. Lower global yields and cheaper oil typically support EM flows and India’s rate‑sensitive pockets.
Domestic macro: The CPI shocker (0.25% y/y) resets the policy narrative into the 3–5 Dec MPC. Several desks now pencil in one last 25 bps cut in December, with some seeing room for more in early 2026—subject to how November inflation rebounds from base effects.
Flows:FIIs were net sellers (~₹1,750 crore) while DIIs bought (~₹5,127 crore) on Wednesday, underscoring the still‑dominant domestic bid.
Regulation: SEBI’s foreign‑investor and cash‑market reforms plus a pause on T+0 should calm operational worries and shift focus back to fundamentals and liquidity.
Primary market:Fujiyama Power Systems’ ₹828‑crore IPO opens today (price band ₹216–₹228, closes 17 Nov). Monitor subscription and pricing power to gauge risk appetite in primary markets.
Trading lens: themes & sectors to watch
- Rate‑sensitives (banks, autos, real estate): With CPI at a record low and yields soft, dips could stay shallow unless U.S. data—if and when it resumes—surprises hawkish.
- Oil beneficiaries (paint, aviation, OMCs): Overnight crude slide aids margin math; Asian Paints already delivered a strong print. Airlines still face idiosyncratic headwinds (SpiceJet).
- Metals & industrials: Tata Steel numbers were solid; watch management commentary on Europe and any price resets domestically.
- Defence: HAL’s top‑line momentum continues; near‑term sentiment hinges on margin guidance.
Levels & setup
Nifty 50 ended near 25,876 on Wednesday; 26,000 remains the psychological hurdle on any gap‑up open, while 25,700 served as intraday support in recent sessions. A flattish Gift Nifty start keeps a range‑bound bias until fresh catalysts hit the tape.
Data & events to track (13–14 Nov)
- SEBI follow‑through: Watch for consultation notes or circulars fleshing out cash‑market margin changes and FPI onboarding tweaks.
- U.S. macro visibility: Markets still lack October CPI and payrolls due to the shutdown; the White House signalled some reports might never be released, which may prolong uncertainty for global rate pricing.
- India WPI (Oct): Scheduled Friday, 14 Nov—confirmation of wholesale disinflation would reinforce the easing narrative.
Bottom line
The setup is constructive but careful: India’s CPI shock, falling oil and friendlier global yields help, while SEBI’s signals should soothe market‑structure worries. Near term, expect stock‑specific action around earnings (Asian Paints, HAL, Tata Steel, SpiceJet, IGL, Info Edge, Ashok Leyland) and IPO cues to drive breadth, with 26,000 on Nifty the immediate line to watch.
Sources: Official data releases and reputable news outlets were used throughout, including Reuters, AP, Business Standard, NSE/IFSC and the Office of Economic Adviser (links embedded in citations).
