U.S. stock futures are nudging higher early Wednesday, December 3, 2025, as investors try to keep a fragile rebound alive after a turbulent start to the month. Traders are balancing renewed optimism about Federal Reserve rate cuts with lingering jitters from a global bond selloff, a violent swing in Bitcoin, and a landmark lawsuit targeting the makers of ultraprocessed foods.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 were up roughly 0.2–0.3% in early trade, signaling a modestly higher open after Tuesday’s comeback session. Contracts linked to the S&P 500 hovered around 6,850, Dow futures around 47,600, and Nasdaq 100 futures near 25,650, all up about a fifth of a percent, with small‑cap Russell 2000 futures outperforming. [1]
At the same time, markets are bracing for a crucial ADP private payrolls report, the last major labor signal before next week’s Fed decision, and digesting a “code red” style warning from analysts who say Monday’s shock in bonds and crypto is a reminder that risk assets remain on edge. [2]
Wall Street Rebounds After Monday’s Global Selloff
Tuesday’s regular session on Wall Street delivered a textbook relief rally:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed about 0.39% (185 points) to 47,474.46.
- The S&P 500 added roughly 0.25% to 6,829.37.
- The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.59% to 23,413.67, leaving the S&P within about 1% of its record high set in October. [3]
This bounce followed a bruising start to December in which:
- A global bond rout, triggered by expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, sent 10‑year Japanese government bond yields to a 17‑year high and 30‑year yields to record levels. [4]
- Bitcoin plunged, sliding roughly 5–7% to the mid‑$80,000s and leaving it about 30% below its October peak — its worst monthly dollar loss since the 2021 crypto crash. [5]
The combination of surging yields and a crypto rout spooked risk assets worldwide, with strategists characterizing Bitcoin as an “ultimate risk metric” that tends to move first when investors slam the brakes. [6]
By Tuesday, however, the mood had shifted. Global shares stabilized, bonds found some footing, and Bitcoin staged a powerful rebound above $90,000, helping lift U.S. indexes for their sixth gain in the last seven sessions. [7]
Futures Edge Higher as ADP Jobs Report Looms
The next catalyst arrives this morning: the ADP National Employment Report for November, due at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Because the recent U.S. government shutdown has delayed some official employment data, this month’s ADP print is unusually influential. Analysts say it may effectively stand in for the missing government figures in shaping expectations for the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting. [8]
Consensus expectations are for modest job growth:
- One widely followed calendar from Econoday pegs the median forecast for private payroll gains at about 20,000, a sharp slowdown compared with October’s 42,000 ADP reading. [9]
- Other estimates span from nearly flat hiring to around 40,000 new private-sector jobs, underscoring just how uncertain the labor outlook has become. [10]
For markets, the logic is simple:
- A weak ADP number would reinforce the idea that the labor market is cooling, bolstering the case for a rate cut next week and supporting stocks, especially growth and tech names.
- Stronger‑than‑expected hiring could pressure Treasuries, nudge yields higher again, and raise doubts about whether the Fed can afford to ease so soon. [11]
That’s why the Yahoo Finance live coverage framing today’s session as “futures keeping the rebound alive as key ADP jobs data looms” has caught the attention of traders trying to decide whether Tuesday’s bounce has real staying power. [12]
Fed Rate-Cut Bets Near 90% – and That’s Driving the Rally
Underpinning the latest move higher is a powerful shift in rate expectations.
According to multiple reports based on CME FedWatch data, markets are now pricing roughly an 85–90% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting — up from about 60–65% a month ago. [13]
The reasoning:
- Economic data: Manufacturing readings have been soft, job growth is sluggish, and weekly ADP and claims data point to a labor market that is “steady but weak” rather than booming. [14]
- Fed commentary: Some officials have hinted that easier policy may be appropriate if labor conditions continue to cool, even as others, like Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, warn against moving too fast. [15]
- Inflation: Investors are watching the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, for confirmation that price pressures are still easing. Friday’s data may cement the case for a December cut. [16]
Tuesday’s rally in equities was closely tied to these easing‑policy hopes. As bonds recovered and yields slipped late in the U.S. session, demand for risk assets strengthened, especially in growth sectors like technology. [17]
Boeing, Big Tech and Crypto Lead Tuesday’s Turnaround
Beneath the indexes, a handful of heavyweight stocks did the heavy lifting.
Boeing steals the show
Boeing shares surged roughly 10%, providing the single largest boost to the Dow and helping lift the S&P 500 industrials sector to the top of the leaderboard. [18]
The catalyst: the company said it expects higher deliveries of its 737 and 787 jets in 2026, reassuring investors that production and demand are recovering after years of turbulence. That optimism spilled into broader industrials, with the sector rising around 0.9% on the day. [19]
Big Tech quietly grinds higher
The technology sector also chipped in:
- Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft all gained around 1%.
- Intel jumped even more sharply, adding to the bullish tone for chipmakers and PC‑related names. [20]
These moves echo a broader pattern in 2025: investors continue to crowd into mega‑cap tech as a “quality growth” refuge whenever macro uncertainty spikes.
Crypto whiplash: from crash to comeback
On the crypto front, Bitcoin’s violent two‑day swing has turned into a key subplot of the week:
- On Monday, it fell roughly 5–7%, dipping below $90,000 and marking its largest monthly dollar loss since the 2021 crash, as over‑leveraged positions were liquidated and a global bond selloff hammered risk appetite. [21]
- By Tuesday evening and into the Asian session, it had rallied back above $90,000–$92,000, essentially erasing Monday’s slide and dragging crypto‑linked stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy higher. [22]
Wall Street strategists increasingly treat Bitcoin as a sentiment barometer: when it collapses, it often signals that risk tolerance is evaporating across markets; when it rebounds, it can help stabilize equities — exactly what played out over the last 48 hours. [23]
“Code Red” Recap: Why Monday Still Haunts Investors
Even with Tuesday’s recovery, the tone from market commentators is cautious rather than euphoric.
A “Heard on the Street” recap from the Wall Street Journal framed the week’s action as a kind of “code red” wake‑up call: December began with a synchronized hit to risk assets — bonds, stocks, and crypto — as the prospect of higher Japanese rates rattled carry trades and pushed global yields sharply higher. [24]
The key takeaway from that analysis and similar commentaries:
- The market still leans bullish, with indexes near record highs and Fed cuts almost fully priced in.
- But the path is likely to be choppy, and sudden shocks — whether from overseas bond markets, policy missteps, or regulation (like the San Francisco food lawsuit) — can quickly flip sentiment from “risk‑on” to “risk‑off.” [25]
In other words, Tuesday’s bounce is not a guarantee that the worst of the volatility is over; it’s a reprieve that could be revoked if data or headlines disappoint.
San Francisco’s Ultraprocessed Foods Lawsuit Hits Big Food Stocks
One of those headline risks emerged far from the bond and crypto worlds — in the processed food aisle.
On Tuesday, the city of San Francisco filed a first‑of‑its‑kind lawsuit against some of the nation’s largest makers of ultraprocessed foods, including Kraft Heinz, Mondelez, Coca‑Cola, PepsiCo, Nestlé, General Mills, Kellogg/Kellanova, Mars, Post, and ConAgra. [26]
The lawsuit alleges that:
- These companies knowingly design and market products that are addictive and harmful, contributing to obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers.
- Their strategies resemble those once used by the tobacco industry, especially in marketing to children and low‑income communities.
- The companies violated California’s unfair competition and public nuisance laws, and should face civil penalties, restrictions on advertising, and changes in labeling and marketing practices. [27]
Market reaction was swift. Food and beverage stocks underperformed Tuesday’s broader rally:
- Coca‑Cola fell about 1.8%, marking a second straight daily decline and lagging the S&P 500 and Dow. [28]
- Peer names such as PepsiCo and Mondelez also slipped, even as the main indexes advanced. [29]
Wall Street Journal coverage noted that “food-company stocks sagged” as the suit landed, highlighting investor concern that this case could open a new front of liability and regulation similar to big tobacco’s legal battles in prior decades. [30]
For long‑term investors, the implications include:
- Legal risk: If San Francisco prevails, other cities or states could file similar suits, driving up legal costs and potential settlements.
- Regulatory risk: Stricter rules on ingredients, labeling, and marketing — especially to children — could weigh on margins or force reformulation of popular products.
- Reputation risk: As public awareness around nutrition grows, brands heavily tied to ultraprocessed products may face sustained multiple compression. [31]
Bonds Calm Down Ahead of “Last Batch” of Labor Data
While equities and crypto have grabbed the headlines, the U.S. Treasury market remains the quiet engine behind the week’s swings.
After Monday’s sharp jump in yields — amplified by the Japanese bond selloff — demand for Treasuries bounced back on Tuesday, pulling yields lower. Market strategists describe it as investors “buying the dip” in government bonds while they await the final pieces of labor data before the Fed meeting. [32]
What’s on deck:
- Today’s ADP jobs report, followed by:
- ISM Services PMI and S&P Global Services PMI, offering a read on the largest segment of the U.S. economy.
- Weekly crude oil inventory data, which can sway inflation expectations via energy prices. [33]
Collectively, these reports will help determine whether Tuesday’s relief in yields is sustainable — or whether bond markets resume the selloff that started the week.
What Investors Are Watching Today (December 3, 2025)
To sum up, here’s what’s on the radar for Wednesday, December 3, 2025:
- U.S. Stock Futures and Open
- Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures point to a modestly higher open after Tuesday’s rebound, with gains of around 0.2–0.3%. [34]
- ADP National Employment Report (8:15 a.m. ET)
- Modest private payroll growth expected; anything significantly above or below forecasts could shift Fed cut odds and upend today’s calm in both bonds and equities. [35]
- Fed Rate Cut Odds
- Markets still price an ~85–90% chance of a 25 bp cut at next week’s meeting. A surprise in today’s data could nudge that probability — and stocks — either way. [36]
- Bitcoin and Crypto
- After crashing and then roaring back above $90,000, Bitcoin remains the front‑line risk indicator. Another sharp move could reinforce or undermine Tuesday’s fragile “risk‑on” tone. [37]
- San Francisco Ultraprocessed Foods Case
- Watch for company responses and potential analyst downgrades in the packaged food and beverage sector, where big brands are facing a novel legal challenge with echoes of tobacco litigation. [38]
- Treasury Yields and Global Bonds
- If yields stay contained and Japanese bonds remain stable, risk assets could continue grinding higher. Another flare‑up in global bond markets would quickly test investors’ nerves again. [39]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.axios.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.cmegroup.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.wsj.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.wsj.com, 23. www.axios.com, 24. www.wsj.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.wsj.com, 31. www.washingtonpost.com, 32. www.wsj.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. finance.yahoo.com, 35. www.barrons.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com
