Wall Street is heading into Christmas Eve trading (Wednesday, December 24, 2025) with a familiar holiday mix: thin liquidity, an early close, and outsized market attention on macro headlines after the S&P 500 finished Tuesday at a fresh record. U.S. stock index futures were modestly lower in premarket action, as traders weighed an unexpectedly strong U.S. growth reading against stubborn inflation signals that are complicating the path for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. [1]
This year’s story has also been shaped by a unique wrinkle: several key government economic releases were delayed by a federal shutdown, meaning investors have been digesting backlogged data in the final stretch of the year—right as many desks head into holiday staffing. [2]
A holiday-shortened session with the “Santa Claus rally” in focus
U.S. equities trade on a shortened schedule today: the NYSE closes early at 1:00 p.m. ET (with some eligible options trading to 1:15 p.m. ET), and U.S. markets are closed Thursday for Christmas Day. [3]
With the calendar tightening, traders are also watching for the start of the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window—typically defined as the last five trading days of December plus the first two trading days of January (this year, through January 5, 2026). The market doesn’t “owe” investors anything, but the period is widely tracked because liquidity is often light and price moves can be amplified. [4]
U.S. markets: S&P 500 closes at a record, futures ease ahead of the open
Tuesday’s session set the tone. The S&P 500 rose 0.46% to 6,909.79, notching a closing record, while the Dow added 0.16% to 48,442.41 and the Nasdaq climbed 0.57% to 23,561.84. The leadership was familiar: growth and mega-cap technology outperformed as investors leaned into AI-linked winners again. [5]
By early Wednesday, futures were slightly lower in thin premarket trade: S&P 500 e-minis, Nasdaq 100 e-minis, and Dow e-minis were each down around 0.05%–0.06% in the hours before the opening bell. [6]
Treasury yields were steady-to-lower in early moves, with Investopedia citing the 10-year yield around 4.16% after Tuesday’s close near 4.17%, reinforcing the market’s current push-pull between “strong growth” and “rate-cut timing.” [7]
The key catalyst: U.S. Q3 GDP jumps to 4.3%, but inflation heats up in the same report
The macro headline driving the shift in rate expectations is the U.S. government’s initial estimate for third-quarter GDP, showing the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3%—a notably stronger pace than investors had been braced for late in the year. [8]
What’s inside the GDP print matters as much as the headline:
- Consumer spending, exports, and government spending were major contributors, partly offset by weaker investment. [9]
- The report also delivered a reminder on inflation: the PCE price index rose 2.8% in Q3 (with core PCE at 2.9%), higher than the prior quarter—fuel for the argument that the Fed can’t rush to ease. [10]
- Because of the October–November government shutdown, this “initial” report replaced the advance and second estimates that would normally have been released earlier in the quarter, compressing the market’s digestion time. [11]
In other words: growth looks stronger than expected, but the inflation components didn’t give policymakers a clean green light.
Rate-cut expectations: January odds fade, but 2026 easing still priced in
The immediate market impact of the GDP surprise has been a trim in near-term easing bets. Reuters reported traders reduced the implied probability of a January cut to about 13%, down from 18% before the data. [12]
At the same time, the market still largely expects the Fed to cut later: Reuters cited pricing for two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2026 (per LSEG data). [13]
That sets up a familiar late-cycle framework investors are trading into year-end:
- Strong growth supports earnings and risk appetite.
- Sticky inflation pushes the Fed to be cautious.
- The market threads the needle only if inflation cools without growth collapsing.
Stock movers in focus: Nike, Dynavax, UiPath, and deal-driven volatility
Even in holiday-thin trade, single-stock news can dominate. Several names stood out heading into the Christmas Eve session:
Nike jumps after a high-profile insider buy
Nike shares ticked higher in premarket trade after a regulatory filing showed Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nike’s lead independent director, bought 50,000 Nike shares at about $58.97 each (roughly $3 million). [14]
Dynavax surges on a $2.2 billion acquisition
Vaccine maker Dynavax rallied sharply after Sanofi announced it will acquire the company for around $2.2 billion, paying $15.50 per share in cash—a sizable premium to Dynavax’s prior close. Sanofi said it expects to complete the deal in Q1 2026 and that it does not change its 2025 outlook. [15]
UiPath pops on index inclusion news
Software firm UiPath rose after S&P Dow Jones Indices said it will join the S&P MidCap 400, effective January 2, 2026, replacing Synovus Financial (which is being acquired). Index adds can trigger mechanical buying from passive and benchmarked funds—sometimes magnified when liquidity is thin. [16]
BP’s Castrol deal ripples through European trade
Across the Atlantic, BP announced it will sell a 65% stake in Castrol to Stonepeak for about $6 billion, valuing Castrol at $10.1 billion. BP said proceeds will help reduce debt and support its broader divestment plan; the transaction also involves an investment from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. [17]
Global markets on Dec. 24: mixed trade, reduced hours, and cross-asset signals
Overseas markets reflected the holiday reality: partial sessions, early closes, and selective risk-taking.
The Associated Press reported mixed global equities after Wall Street’s record finish, with U.S. futures slightly lower and several major exchanges closing early on Christmas Eve; Germany’s market was closed for the day. [18]
In the U.K., Reuters noted the FTSE 100 edged down in a shortened session, with the London market closing at 12:30 GMT and remaining closed for Christmas and Boxing Day. BP’s Castrol news helped support the oil segment, while healthcare weighed on the index. [19]
Commodities steal attention: gold above $4,500, silver and platinum also hit records
One of the most striking storylines on December 24 has been the surge in precious metals.
Reuters reported gold topped $4,500 an ounce for the first time, with spot gold hitting a record near $4,525, while silver and platinum also marked new all-time highs. Analysts pointed to a combination of safe-haven demand, geopolitical and trade uncertainty, dollar diversification, and expectations for future U.S. rate cuts as drivers—while also noting that thin year-end liquidity can exaggerate moves. [20]
Oil also extended a rebound. Reuters reported Brent and WTI rising again, supported by the strong U.S. growth data and concerns over potential supply disruptions linked to Venezuela and Russia, even as crude remains on track for a weak year relative to earlier cycles. [21]
FX and rates: the dollar’s rough year and why it matters for markets
Currency markets are reinforcing the “Fed divergence” narrative heading into 2026.
Reuters reported the U.S. dollar is headed for its worst annual performance since 2003, down roughly 9.9% against a basket of currencies, as investors anticipate further Fed cuts next year while some peers look closer to the end of their easing cycles. [22]
A weaker dollar can be a tailwind for certain assets (including commodities priced in dollars), and it’s also one reason global investors remain intensely focused on what the Fed does next—especially as the U.S. heads toward a politically and economically consequential 2026.
What investors are watching next: jobless claims, liquidity, and the 2026 playbook
With the Santa Claus rally window opening and the calendar compressing, the next market moves may be shaped as much by positioning as by fundamentals.
In the near term, traders are watching weekly jobless claims (released Christmas Eve morning) as a high-frequency read on labor-market cooling. [23]
Beyond the week, attention is already shifting to what it would take for 2026 to deliver another strong year. Reuters flagged three big swing factors:
- Broadening earnings growth beyond the mega-cap leaders
- Sustained AI investment, without an earnings backlash from excessive capex
- A dovish-enough Federal Reserve, assuming inflation continues to cool without a recession [24]
Reuters also noted the S&P 500 is up more than 17% in 2025 with a few trading days left, following strong gains in 2023 and 2024—meaning expectations are high, valuations are a topic again, and the margin for policy mistakes (or inflation surprises) may be smaller. [25]
Bottom line for Dec. 24, 2025
Christmas Eve trading is starting with U.S. futures slightly lower after Tuesday’s record close, as markets recalibrate around a strong 4.3% GDP print that came bundled with hotter inflation metrics in the same release. Stock-specific catalysts—especially large deals and index changes—are taking on extra importance in a session where many participants are operating with reduced staffing and limited liquidity. [26]
Meanwhile, global markets are mixed, gold is rewriting the record books above $4,500, and the dollar is closing out a historically weak year—setting the stage for a potentially volatile, headline-driven transition from the final sessions of 2025 into the opening weeks of 2026. [27]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.bea.gov, 9. www.bea.gov, 10. www.bea.gov, 11. www.bea.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. press.spglobal.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. apnews.com
