Dec. 23, 2025 — StoneCo Ltd. (NASDAQ: STNE) is back in the spotlight after a shareholder-return update lit a match under the stock. Shares were trading around $14.86, up roughly 5% in Tuesday’s session, as investors reacted to a new repurchase authorization and fresh detail on how the company has been returning capital. [1]
The headline: StoneCo disclosed plans tied to R$3 billion in “excess capital” from 2024 and launched a new share repurchase program of up to R$2 billion, a move that signals confidence and keeps buybacks at the center of the company’s capital-allocation story. [2]
Below is what happened today, what the latest filings and market commentary are emphasizing, and what Wall Street forecasts are implying for STNE stock into 2026.
What’s moving StoneCo stock today
StoneCo shares were among notable gainers Tuesday, with market coverage pointing directly to the company’s newly authorized repurchase plan as the key catalyst. Benzinga reported STNE rising about 5.8% to roughly $14.96 during the session, explicitly tying the move to the R$2 billion buyback authorization. [3]
MarketBeat similarly flagged a gap-up move and described STNE trading up in the mid–single digits on the day. [4]
And importantly, this wasn’t a vague “fintech optimism” day. The market reaction is anchored to concrete capital-return updates.
The core news: StoneCo’s new R$2 billion share repurchase program
StoneCo’s update has two parts investors tend to care about immediately:
- A new share repurchase program of up to R$2 billion
- A capital-return framework that’s still heavily buyback-led
Investing.com summarized the disclosure as StoneCo planning to distribute R$3 billion in excess capital for 2024 and initiating a new buyback program of up to R$2 billion. [5]
A separate market data note carried by MarketScreener (from S&P Capital IQ) also describes the authorization as a repurchase program for BRL 2,000 million with no fixed expiration referenced in the summary. [6]
What we know about the buyback track record heading into this new authorization
A tranche update published via MarketScreener (S&P Capital IQ) adds key historical context: under the buyback plan announced on May 8, 2025, StoneCo completed repurchases totaling 21,872,021 shares, representing 8.27%, for BRL 1.95 billion. [7]
That same update also notes that from Oct. 1, 2025 to Dec. 18, 2025, the company repurchased 14,104,819 shares (about 5.38%) for BRL 1,297.44 million—a sign that a large portion of the year’s repurchase activity was concentrated late in 2025. [8]
Buybacks by the month: what StoneCo’s IR data shows
StoneCo’s investor relations “Buybacks” table shows consistent repurchase activity through 2025, including:
- Nov/25: 5,541,655 shares at an average price of $17.47
- Oct/25: 5,396,652 shares at $18.05
- Jan/25: 4,942,394 shares at $8.39 [9]
Even without over-interpreting the month-by-month data, the pattern is clear: StoneCo has been an active buyer of its own stock across a wide price range in 2025. [10]
Why buybacks keep showing up in the StoneCo story
For StoneCo, repurchases aren’t a side quest—they’re part of an explicit capital framework the company has discussed publicly.
In StoneCo’s Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (published March 18, 2025), management described a capital allocation approach built around multiple pillars—including maintaining a minimum common capital ratio, monitoring credit-rating metrics, and keeping a positive net cash position—while estimating excess capital of over BRL 3 billion (as of Dec. 31 in that discussion) intended to be returned to shareholders over time when value-accretive opportunities aren’t immediately available. [11]
That framework helps explain why today’s buyback news tends to move STNE quickly: the market sees repurchases as both (a) a signal about management’s confidence and (b) a mechanism for turning operating performance into per-share compounding.
The legal overhang angle: the proposed $26.75 million securities settlement
Alongside buyback headlines, another “risk cleanup” theme is circulating around STNE this week: the proposed settlement of a long-running securities litigation matter.
Simply Wall St reports that StoneCo and the lead plaintiff (Indiana Public Retirement System) reached a proposed US$26,750,000 settlement tied to investors who bought shares between May 27, 2020 and Nov. 16, 2021, with a settlement hearing scheduled for Feb. 27, 2026; the article also notes the company accepts the settlement without admitting wrongdoing. [12]
Settlement administration sources provide the key deadlines:
- Claim filing deadline:Feb. 17, 2026 (postmarked/submitted online by then) [13]
- Objection/exclusion deadline:Feb. 6, 2026 [14]
- Settlement hearing:Feb. 27, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET (remote or in-person, SDNY) [15]
From a stock perspective, the settlement isn’t necessarily about the dollar amount alone—it’s about reducing uncertainty. Markets tend to price “unknown tail risks” harshly, even when the expected payout is manageable.
Analyst forecasts for STNE: targets in the high teens, but the range is wide
Today’s rally doesn’t mean Wall Street suddenly agrees on a single clean valuation for StoneCo. If anything, the most striking feature in current forecasts is the spread between low and high targets.
Here’s what major consensus aggregators are showing as of Dec. 23:
- Investing.com (13 analysts): consensus rating “Buy” with an average 12‑month price target of ~$19.85 (high ~$24.14, low ~$15.30) and stated upside in the mid‑30% range based on its reference price. [16]
- MarketBeat (11 analysts): consensus rating “Hold”, average target $17.21 (high $25, low $6). [17]
- Benzinga (17 analysts): consensus rating shown as “Buy” with a consensus target of $17.68 (high $25, low $6). Benzinga also highlights that some of the most recent published targets in 2025 came from Goldman Sachs ($21), BofA Securities ($25), and UBS ($20). [18]
What these targets imply versus today’s price
With STNE trading around $14.86 today, the consensus targets imply something like:
- ~16% upside to ~$17.21 (MarketBeat-style consensus)
- ~34% upside to ~$19.85 (Investing.com-style consensus) [19]
The wide $6 to $25 low/high range (seen across multiple aggregators) is your reminder that STNE is still viewed as a higher-volatility fintech name where assumptions about Brazil’s macro path, credit performance, and competitive intensity can radically change the model. [20]
2026–2027 operating outlook: what published estimates are projecting
MarketScreener’s compiled forecasts (in BRL millions) sketch a picture of moderate top-line growth with stronger operating leverage assumptions:
- Net sales: 2025E 14,505, 2026E 15,446, 2027E 16,262
- EBITDA: 2025E 8,297, 2026E 8,864, 2027E 8,809
- Forecast profitability margins (EBITDA margin) are shown improving into the high‑50% range in these estimates. [21]
Forecast compilations vary by provider, but the common thread across many bullish takes is that StoneCo’s model can scale—especially if customer engagement keeps rising and funding advantages (deposits) keep expanding.
A Nasdaq.com analysis published earlier this month (sourced from Zacks) emphasized several operating metrics through the first nine months of 2025, including:
- Payments active client base rising to ~4.7 million
- Banking active clients rising to ~3.5 million, with deposits up ~32%
- Credit portfolio growing to ~BRL 2.3 billion, while noting provisioning/non-performing loan ratios rose
- Ending Q3 2025 with ~BRL 3.5 billion in net cash, even after buybacks
- A cited forward 12‑month P/E around 7.46x at the time of publication [22]
The business backdrop: focus on fintech, and a cleaner strategic shape
A big piece of the StoneCo narrative in 2025 has been simplification and focus. Reuters coverage on the company notes the agreement for Brazil’s Totvs to buy StoneCo’s Linx unit in a deal worth 3.05 billion reais (reported June 2025). [23]
That matters for STNE stock because divestments can (a) reduce complexity and (b) potentially free capital—both of which make buybacks easier to justify and easier for investors to underwrite.
What technical and trading-signal commentary is saying today
Not all “analysis” around STNE today is fundamental. Some is purely price-and-flow based.
A Stock Traders Daily signal note dated Dec. 23, 2025 characterized near- and mid-term signals as weak while calling long-term signals strong, and it listed specific support/resistance levels (for example, near-term support around the high‑$13s and resistance around the mid‑$14s in its framework). [24]
Separately, an Investor’s Business Daily data note earlier in December reported StoneCo’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating was upgraded (88 to 91) and referenced a double-bottom pattern with a buy point at $19.64—a reminder that some traders are still watching the prior highs as the next major technical test. [25]
Technical signals aren’t destiny, but they do influence short-term flows—especially in a stock that can move sharply on news.
Key risks investors are watching alongside the buyback story
StoneCo’s capital returns are grabbing attention today, but the stock’s medium-term direction still hinges on a few recurring questions:
- Brazil macro sensitivity: high rates and slower growth can pressure MSMB merchants (StoneCo’s core base) and credit performance. [26]
- Credit quality in a growing loan book: rapid portfolio growth is attractive—until loss curves steepen. Multiple analyses have pointed out rising provisioning/non-performing loan ratios even as the credit portfolio expands. [27]
- Competitive dynamics in payments and banking: pricing pressure and the pace of digital payments adoption (including PIX-linked behavior) affect take rates and growth. [28]
- Execution risk on capital allocation: buybacks can boost per-share metrics, but only if the business keeps compounding and the company avoids overpaying for its own stock over a cycle.
Bottom line on StoneCo stock today
StoneCo stock is higher on Dec. 23 because investors are responding to a simple, market-friendly message: management is still aggressively returning capital, and a new repurchase authorization keeps that engine running. [29]
At the same time, the latest analyst targets and published forecasts show a stock with meaningful perceived upside—but also a wide distribution of outcomes, driven largely by Brazil macro conditions, credit execution, and the sustainability of growth across payments, banking, and software-adjacent offerings. [30]
References
1. www.benzinga.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.marketscreener.com, 7. www.marketscreener.com, 8. www.marketscreener.com, 9. investors.stone.co, 10. investors.stone.co, 11. www.fool.com, 12. simplywall.st, 13. www.stonecosecuritiessettlement.com, 14. www.stonecosecuritiessettlement.com, 15. www.labaton.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.investing.com
