Strategy Inc (MSTR) Before the December 1 Open: Bitcoin Proxy Trades Near NAV as Index Risk and Funding Costs Loom

As U.S. markets head into Monday, December 1, 2025, Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) – the bitcoin‑heavy company formerly known as MicroStrategy – is one of the most watched tickers on the screen. After a brutal November that saw the stock fall roughly 40% from its October highs and close at $177.18 on Friday, November 28, investors are digesting a rush of headlines from November 28–30 about index‑removal risk, surging funding costs, big‑ticket institutional moves and ongoing legal scrutiny. ^[1]

This article pulls together the key developments from 28–30 November 2025 and sets the stage for Strategy Inc stock before the bell on December 1. It is based solely on information available up to the evening of November 30 and does not incorporate any pre‑market trading on December 1.

1. Strategy Inc Stock Snapshot Going Into December

Before diving into the news flow, it helps to anchor where MSTR stands today.

Friday close (Nov 28, 2025): $177.18 per share, up 0.88% on the day, with after‑hours trading around $178.40. ^[2]
Intraday range (Nov 28): roughly $175.05–$187.29. ^[3]
Market capitalization: about $50.9 billion. ^[4]
52‑week range: approximately $166.01–$457.22, underscoring how deep the recent drawdown has been. ^[5]
Valuation: Google Finance shows a trailing P/E of 8.24, inflated by bitcoin‑linked fair‑value gains, with no regular dividend on the common stock. ^[6]

Strategy rebranded from MicroStrategy earlier this year and now describes itself as a hybrid of AI‑powered business intelligence software and a bitcoin treasury vehicle. It is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin in the world: public filings and independent trackers suggest the company controls roughly 640,000–650,000 BTC, more than 3% of the eventual supply. ^[7]

Because of that hoard, MSTR trades less like a traditional software stock and more like a leveraged bitcoin proxy. In November, that leverage worked in reverse:

Reuters estimates Strategy’s shares fell almost 36% in November, even as bitcoin slid to its lowest level since April. ^[8]
TipRanks pegs the year‑to‑date decline around 39%, with the stock down about 50% over the last 12 months. ^[9]

At the same time, analysis cited by TS2 Tech and DL News shows Strategy now trades at or slightly below the value of its bitcoin holdings, with a market‑implied NAV multiple (mNAV) near 0.9 – a sharp reversal from the 2–4x premium investors once paid for the company’s “bitcoin leverage machine.” TS2 Tech

That backdrop sets the stage for a tense start to December.

2. What Happened on November 28–30? The Key Headlines

2.1 November 28: Price Bounce, Bitcoin Steadies, but Pressure Builds

On Friday, November 28, MSTR actually had a decent session:

TS2 Tech reported that Strategy shares traded around $180 in late‑morning, up roughly 2–3% on the day, after swinging between about $178 and “above $187,” while bitcoin hovered near $91,500. TS2 Tech

The intraday strength didn’t change the bigger picture:

A Finviz‑linked article from Insider Monkey highlighted that MSTR had fallen more than 40% over the past month, largely tracking a ~20% decline in bitcoin and growing concern about potential delisting from major equity indices. ^[10]

In a CNBC interview referenced in that same piece, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor argued that:

Bitcoin’s volatility is “part of the deal” for long‑term holders.
Strategy’s bitcoin‑backed balance sheet is “only fractionally levered”, with debt maturities roughly 4.5 years out, implying no imminent refinancing crunch from its borrow‑to‑buy‑bitcoin strategy. ^[11]

At the sector level, Reuters framed November 28 as a turning point for so‑called “digital asset treasury” (DAT) companies – firms that stockpile bitcoin and other tokens on their balance sheets:

DAT stocks, led by Strategy, were under heavy pressure as risk appetite faded amid worries about an AI bubble and uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cuts.
At least 15 DAT firms were trading below the net asset value of their crypto holdings.
DATs collectively hold roughly 4% of all bitcoin, 3.1% of ether and 0.8% of solana, giving the sector systemic importance for crypto prices. ^[12]

In other words: Friday’s bounce was more a dead‑cat wiggle in a bruising month than a clean trend reversal.

2.2 CalPERS Pain: A Reminder of How Violent the Drawdown Has Been

Also on November 28, a widely shared item (originally from Cryptonews and re‑syndicated across platforms) spotlighted just how hard the MSTR slide has hit large institutions:

CalPERS, the largest U.S. public pension fund, has seen the value of its Strategy position slump from over $144 million to about $80 million after the recent sell‑off. ^[13]

The numbers are mark‑to‑market, not realized losses, but they underline the political and risk‑management sensitivity around owning a volatile bitcoin proxy inside a conservative pension portfolio.

2.3 November 29: Rising Interest Costs and “More Flexibility Than Ever”

On Saturday, November 29, two major storylines emerged: funding costs and capital flexibility.

Interest costs set to rise

An Investor’s Business Daily report, summarized in multiple feeds, warned that Strategy’s interest costs are poised to jump:

The dividend rate on its variable‑rate STRC preferred stock is stepping up from 9% toward roughly 10.75–11%, triggered by STRC trading below a specified price level.
New euro‑denominated preferred stock carries double‑digit coupons (some coverage mentions 12.5%), reflecting investors’ demand for high yields to fund Strategy’s ongoing bitcoin accumulation. ^[14]

Despite these headwinds, IBD noted that MSTR rallied about 5.6% to $185.50 on the day of that report as bitcoin bounced 1.8% to around $92,590 – a reminder that crypto direction still trumps fundamentals intraday. ^[15]

TS2 Tech’s November 29 coverage put some numbers around the balance sheet:

Strategy has raised nearly $20 billion in 2025 via at‑the‑market (ATM) equity programs and multiple perpetual preferred offerings, including STRK, STRF, STRD and STRC.
On November 7, it priced an IPO of 7.75 million shares of a new 10% Series A “STRE” perpetual preferred at €80 per share, with a 10% coupon on a €100 stated amount and an effective rate that can climb as high as 18% if dividends are deferred.
Gross proceeds were roughly €620 million (~$715 million), with net proceeds of about €608.8 million (~$702 million) earmarked for more bitcoin and general corporate purposes. TS2 Tech+1

Put simply, Strategy can still raise capital, but that capital is getting more expensive and is largely used to buy yet more bitcoin – amplifying both upside and downside.

CEO Phong Le: “More flexibility than ever” to buy bitcoin

In a CoinDesk interview published November 29, CEO Phong Le doubled down on the long‑term bitcoin plan and pushed back on balance‑sheet worries: ^[16]

He said Strategy now has “more flexibility than ever” to keep accumulating BTC, thanks to a mix of long‑dated convertible notes, multiple perpetual preferred series and opportunistic equity issuance.
The first major debt maturity doesn’t arrive until late 2025, with subsequent tranches spread over later years, which he argued gives the company time to ride out crypto volatility.
Le framed access to both equity and debt markets as the “magic” behind Strategy’s ability to add bitcoin through multiple cycles, and said the shareholder base “understands who we are”: not a conventional software firm, but a bitcoin‑forward operating strategy.

CoinDesk added that despite Friday’s bounce, MSTR shares were down about 41% year‑to‑date, even after closing at $177.18, underperforming bitcoin’s smaller decline over the same period. ^[17]

2.4 November 29–30: Big Money Still Buying the Dip

While retail and some institutions are clearly nursing losses, fresh money is still flowing into Strategy.

On November 29, a detailed MarketBeat piece highlighted a series of 13F filings: ^[18]

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB publ increased its stake in Strategy by 14.6%, purchasing 6,500 additional shares in Q2 to bring its holdings to 50,983 shares, worth about $20.6 million at the time of filing.
MarketBeat’s data shows hedge funds and other institutions holding around 60% of the float, while company insiders retain roughly 8–10%, depending on the dataset.
TS2 Tech’s November 30 wrap added that Norges Bank, Legal & General, Swiss National Bank and others have also built or expanded positions through 2025, underscoring persistent institutional interest despite the drawdown. TS2 Tech+1

TipRanks’ November 30 report on ownership filled in more detail: ^[19]

Public companies and individual investors together own about 49.2% of MSTR.
ETFs hold roughly 20.5%, mutual funds 15.6%, insiders 10.1%, and other institutions around 4.6%.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is still the single largest individual shareholder with ~9.9%, while Vanguard controls about 6.5% across its funds.
Among ETFs, Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) owns roughly 3.1% of the float, and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) holds around 2.1%.

Put together, the ownership data show Strategy is deeply embedded in index and fund products, which makes any decision by index providers especially important.

2.5 November 30: Index Risk, Lawsuit Overhang and Analyst Split

By Sunday, November 30, the conversation around Strategy stock had crystallized around a few key themes, pulled together in a long‑form TS2 Tech analysis and corroborated by other outlets. TS2 Tech+2Financial Times+2

MSCI and passive‑flow overhang

MSCI is considering whether companies with more than 50% of their assets in cryptocurrencies should remain in mainstream equity indices.
JPMorgan and other analysts have warned that a removal from MSCI’s indices – with a key decision expected around January 15, 2026 – could trigger billions of dollars in forced selling, given the amount of passive capital tracking those benchmarks. ^[20]
The Financial Times, in a widely discussed piece earlier in the week, estimated that passive funds hold roughly $9 billion of Strategy’s common stock, and suggested that as much as $2.8 billion could be forced out of the name if MSCI changes its rules, with additional pressure possible if other index providers follow. ^[21]

For a company whose market cap is just over $50 billion, that kind of potential selling is not trivial.

mNAV discount and the “infinite money glitch” problem

The same FT piece and follow‑up analysis from DL News and TS2 noted that: ^[22]

Strategy’s stock is now trading at or below the value of its bitcoin, with an mNAV around 0.88 – roughly 88 cents of equity value for each dollar of bitcoin on the balance sheet.
Historically, investors paid a premium of 2–4x NAV for Strategy, effectively rewarding the company for using equity and debt to accumulate more BTC – what critics dubbed an “infinite money glitch.”
With the premium gone and replaced by a discount, Strategy’s ability to issue new stock at attractive terms to buy more bitcoin is constrained, particularly if index removals or higher funding costs push the discount wider.

Lawsuit and legal risk

TS2 also highlighted an ongoing shareholder class‑action investigation: TS2 Tech

Shareholder‑rights firm Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is continuing an investigation into Strategy on behalf of long‑term investors, following a complaint filed earlier in 2025.
The complaint alleges that the company and certain executives:
1. Overstated the anticipated profitability of the bitcoin‑focused strategy.
2. Understated the risks of extreme bitcoin volatility and fair‑value accounting rules.
3. Made materially misleading statements between April 30, 2024 and April 4, 2025.
Strategy has not admitted wrongdoing, and the case is still at an investigative stage, but it adds a legal cloud to an already complex story.

Analyst sentiment: wild dispersion, but upside dominates on paper

Two different data sets paint a broadly bullish but controversial picture:

TipRanks: a Strong Buy consensus from 14 Wall Street analysts, with 12 Buys and 2 Sells and an average price target of about $524, implying roughly 196% upside from current levels. ^[23]
MarketBeat, looking at a slightly larger coverage universe, sees one “Strong Buy”, thirteen “Buy” and four “Hold” ratings, with an average target in the $485–$490 range – still implying well over 100% upside. TS2 Tech+1

At the same time, outlets like Zacks and the Financial Times flag serious downside scenarios if bitcoin weakens further or if index providers and creditors lose patience. ^[24]

The net effect: on the spreadsheet MSTR looks deeply undervalued versus analyst targets and even versus its own bitcoin stash; in the narrative, it is one of the riskiest high‑beta names in the market.

3. How Strategy Is Positioned Before the December 1 Open

Taking the late‑November news together, here’s how Strategy Inc looks heading into Monday’s session.

3.1 Core facts

Business model: AI‑driven business intelligence and analytics software, plus an explicitly bitcoin‑first treasury strategy. ^[25]
Bitcoin holdings: around 650,000 BTC, worth on the order of $58–60 billion at recent prices – more than the company’s current market cap. ^[26]
Capital structure:
- Several tranches of long‑dated convertible debt, with the first major maturity not due until late 2025. ^[27]
- Multiple lines of perpetual preferred stock (STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, STRE), with coupons now in the 10–12%+ range and, in some cases, step‑ups when prices fall. TS2 Tech+1
- Ongoing ATM equity issuance, giving management another valve to raise cash when the stock trades at an acceptable multiple. TS2 Tech+1
Profitability: thanks to fair‑value accounting for bitcoin, Strategy reported multi‑billion‑dollar net income in recent quarters on modest software revenue (about $128.7 million in Q3), leading to eye‑catching GAAP earnings and a low P/E that heavily depend on BTC staying elevated. ^[28]

3.2 Key positives going into December

1. Massive bitcoin exposure at a discount

If you accept bitcoin’s long‑term bull case, Strategy offers:

Exposure to one of the largest bitcoin treasuries in existence.
A share price that, by some estimates, reflects a discount to underlying BTC value rather than the premium it once enjoyed. TS2 Tech+1

2. Access to capital markets remains intact

Despite higher coupons, Strategy is still:

Successfully issuing new preferred stock (STRE) in size. TS2 Tech+1
Drawing interest from large institutions and banks that continue to buy the common stock on weakness. ^[29]
Backed by management that has repeatedly shown it can execute complex debt and equity deals even after sharp drawdowns. ^[30]

3. Strong institutional and ETF presence

High ownership by ETFs and mutual funds (VTI, QQQ and others) provides:

Ongoing baseline demand when indices rebalance or assets grow.
A sign that Strategy remains part of the mainstream equity conversation, not just a crypto side show. ^[31]

4. Bullish analyst coverage

Even after November’s collapse, average analyst price targets suggest triple‑digit upside if bitcoin stabilizes and the index‑removal scenario is avoided. ^[32]

3.3 Key risks front‑of‑mind before the bell

1. Index‑removal overhang (MSCI and beyond)

The single most important non‑crypto catalyst is whether MSCI and potentially other index providers reclassify Strategy as a non‑index‑eligible “digital asset vehicle” because more than half its assets are crypto. Analysts estimate:

Passive funds hold billions of dollars of MSTR.
A negative decision around January 15, 2026 could trigger multi‑billion‑dollar forced selling in a name that already trades below NAV. ^[33]

2. Rising funding costs and tighter capital markets

Variable‑rate preferreds like STRC are stepping up from 9% toward 10.75–11%, and new euro‑denominated issues carry double‑digit coupons. ^[34]
If bitcoin weakens further or the mNAV discount deepens, issuing additional equity or preferred stock could become less attractive or more dilutive. ^[35]

3. Legal and regulatory scrutiny

The Bragar Eagel & Squire shareholder investigation raises questions about past disclosures, even though nothing has been proven in court. TS2 Tech
Broader political and regulatory attention on “crypto‑hoarding companies” could grow if pensions or retail investors rack up losses. ^[36]

4. Competition from bitcoin ETFs

Spot bitcoin ETFs now offer direct, relatively low‑fee exposure to BTC, without convertible debt, preferreds or software operations. ^[37]
As ETFs scale, investors may ask why they should own MSTR rather than bitcoin itself or an ETF – especially if Strategy trades at a discount to its bitcoin. TS2 Tech+1

5. Pure bitcoin price risk

Strategy’s own FY 2025 guidance assumes a year‑end bitcoin price near $150,000, producing eye‑popping projections for operating income and EPS. Those numbers are explicitly conditional on BTC and could swing dramatically if bitcoin moves sharply up or down from current levels around the low‑$90,000s. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2

4. What to Watch on December 1 and Beyond

For readers scanning Google News and Discover before the U.S. open on December 1, 2025, here are the main signposts to watch in Strategy Inc stock:

Bitcoin’s next move
- If BTC resumes its rally, MSTR can snap back quickly, potentially closing the mNAV discount and squeezing shorts.
- A deeper crypto sell‑off, on the other hand, would stress Strategy’s high‑coupon capital structure and likely widen the discount further. ^[38]
Any communication from MSCI or other index providers
- Even hints or research notes about digital‑asset heavy companies can move the stock, given the estimated $9 billion in passive capital tied up in MSTR. ^[39]
Preferred‑stock pricing and STRC/ STRE trading
- Rising preferred yields would signal growing market concern about Strategy’s funding model; stable or tightening yields would suggest investors remain comfortable financing its bitcoin expansion. TS2 Tech+2Investors+2
Updates on the shareholder case
- Any new filings, motions or settlements from the Bragar Eagel & Squire investigation could change perceptions of the legal tail risk attached to the stock. TS2 Tech
Management messaging
- Further interviews from Michael Saylor or Phong Le – especially if they update target leverage, bitcoin acquisition plans or capital‑raising intentions – will shape the narrative as much as the numbers. ^[40]

5. Bottom Line: A High‑Beta Test of the Bitcoin Treasury Model

As of the close on November 28 and the news flow through November 30, Strategy Inc stock sits at a crossroads:

It owns one of the largest bitcoin treasuries on the planet, yet trades roughly at or below the value of that bitcoin. ^[41]
It still has “more flexibility than ever” (in its CEO’s words) to raise capital via long‑dated convertibles, high‑coupon preferreds and equity, but that flexibility is becoming more expensive just as market sentiment cools. ^[42]
It is deeply woven into major indices and ETFs, yet now faces the real possibility of being reclassified out of them, with billions in potential passive outflows hanging over the share price. ^[43]

For traders and long‑term investors alike, MSTR remains one of the purest, but riskiest, ways to express a view on bitcoin in equities. Heading into the December 1 open, the central question is not simply whether bitcoin goes up or down – it’s whether Strategy’s high‑octane balance sheet and index‑dependent shareholder base can withstand another bout of crypto volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.