Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy — finished Friday, December 19, 2025 with a strong rebound in the regular session, then held most of those gains in after-hours trading as investors weighed a Bitcoin bounce against a fresh index-related headline that could matter far more than a single day’s price action. [1]
MSTR closed the day at $164.58 (+4.01%) and traded around $165.04 in after-hours (+0.13%) as of 7:59 p.m. ET, after swinging through a $161.63–$167.75 range during the regular session. [2]
One calendar note matters for readers outside the U.S.: “tomorrow” is Saturday (Dec. 20), and U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend. The next U.S. equity market open is Monday, Dec. 22, 2025 — and that’s when several important flows and narratives around Strategy could collide. [3]
After-hours snapshot: what the tape is saying right now
Price action (Friday, Dec. 19):
- Close: $164.58 (+4.01%) [4]
- After-hours (7:59 p.m. ET): $165.04 (+0.13%) [5]
- Day’s range: $161.63 to $167.75 [6]
Macro driver in the background: Bitcoin was trading around $88,068 late Friday/early Saturday UTC, up about 3.2% from the prior close on the feed used here — a reminder that MSTR remains, in practice, one of the market’s most reactive “Bitcoin proxy” equities. [7]
The biggest headline Friday: MSCI is weighing whether to exclude “digital asset treasury” companies like Strategy
The most consequential story hitting Strategy on Dec. 19 didn’t come from an earnings release or a product update — it came from index methodology.
Reuters reported that MSCI is considering excluding publicly traded companies whose digital asset holdings are 50% or more of total assets from its global equity indexes, arguing these firms resemble investment funds (which MSCI does not include in its benchmarks). MSCI’s review is under public consultation, with a decision expected by Jan. 15, 2026. [8]
Why investors care: passive funds and benchmark-linked mandates can be a meaningful source of structural demand for large-cap stocks. Reuters noted this is especially sensitive for the “digital asset treasury” (DAT) model because many companies in the category fund token purchases by issuing stock. [9]
How big could the impact be for MSTR?
Reuters cited estimates that exclusion could translate into billions of dollars of forced outflows. Specifically, Reuters reported:
- JPMorgan estimated about $2.8 billion of outflows if MSCI excludes Strategy, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow with similar exclusions. [10]
- Reuters also described broader estimates suggesting Strategy could face up to $9 billion in reduced demand if exclusions spread across major index ecosystems. [11]
Strategy’s leadership has pushed back, arguing these firms are operational companies, not passive vehicles, and warning exclusion could “chill” the industry. The company has also published a dedicated response to MSCI’s proposal. [12]
Why index membership is unusually important for Strategy’s business model
With most companies, index chatter is a second-order issue. With Strategy, it can become a first-order capital markets constraint.
That’s because Strategy’s “Bitcoin treasury” playbook is closely tied to its ability to raise capital efficiently — and index-linked demand can influence liquidity, shareholder base stability, and (crucially) the market’s willingness to pay a premium for the equity. Reuters explicitly flagged this mechanism, noting that DAT firms often fund purchases by selling stock and can be particularly exposed to outflows if index providers reclassify them. [13]
Investors.com made the same point in market terms: if MSTR’s equity “premium” compresses and the share price weakens, Strategy’s effective buying power for additional Bitcoin drops, potentially forcing the company to rely more heavily on higher-cost financing structures. [14]
The most relevant “fundamentals” update: Strategy’s latest Bitcoin holdings and how it funded them
Although Friday’s market was driven by the index headline and Bitcoin’s move, traders still need to anchor the story in the most recent disclosed numbers.
In a Form 8‑K describing an ATM (at-the-market) program update and a Bitcoin holdings update, Strategy reported that during Dec. 8–Dec. 14, 2025 it:
- Acquired 10,645 BTC for about $980.3 million, at an average price of $92,098 per Bitcoin [15]
- Held 671,268 BTC as of Dec. 14, 2025, bought for an aggregate $50.33 billion at an average cost of $74,972 [16]
The same filing details how purchases were funded via sales of multiple securities through the ATM program. In that period, Strategy disclosed net proceeds including approximately $888.2 million from sales of MSTR common stock, plus proceeds from several preferred stock series, and explicitly stated Bitcoin purchases were made using proceeds from those sales. [17]
This matters for Monday because it keeps the market focused on two recurring variables:
- Bitcoin’s price direction, and
- Strategy’s marginal cost of capital (how dilutive or expensive the next round of buying becomes). [18]
Friday’s analysis theme: “Bitcoin bounce, but MSTR’s buying power is under pressure”
The most pointed same-day analysis came from Investors.com: Bitcoin bounced toward the high-$80,000s, but Strategy’s ability to keep buying at scale is increasingly constrained by:
- the stock’s drawdown and weaker week-to-date performance (reducing how much BTC can be bought per share issued), and
- the rising role of preferred stock / higher financing costs when common equity is less attractive. [19]
That framing is critical heading into the next session because it tells you what kind of stock MSTR is right now:
- Not a “software valuation” story.
- Not a “next earnings surprise” story.
- A capital-markets-plus-crypto-volatility story, where sentiment can flip fast if the market starts to price in structural index outflows. [20]
Forecasts that shaped sentiment today: Bitcoin targets moved, and that feeds directly into the MSTR narrative
Because Strategy’s valuation is tightly linked to Bitcoin expectations, crypto forecasts can matter to MSTR traders almost as much as an analyst note would for a conventional tech stock.
A MarketWatch report summarized Citi’s updated view, with Citi forecasting Bitcoin at $143,000 in its base case for 2026, with a bull case above $189,000 and a bear case around $78,500. [21]
Barron’s also highlighted that 2026 Bitcoin forecasts across Wall Street have generally become more cautious versus peak-optimism, even as some banks still see meaningful upside from current levels. [22]
For Strategy investors, the practical takeaway is simple: the “bull math” for MSTR becomes easier when Bitcoin forecasts are rising — but the index story creates a second axis of risk that Bitcoin alone may not offset if passive flows are threatened. [23]
What to know before the next stock market open Monday, Dec. 22
Here are the key items most likely to drive MSTR at the open (and throughout next week), based on what changed on Dec. 19:
1) Weekend Bitcoin volatility is the first domino
Bitcoin trades 24/7; Strategy shares do not. That means Monday’s opening gap in MSTR often reflects whatever Bitcoin did between Friday’s close and Sunday night futures trading. Late Friday, BTC was near $88K on the feed referenced here — but the direction into Monday matters more than the level. [24]
2) MSCI “index eligibility” is now a live, market-moving narrative
This isn’t a distant “maybe.” Reuters reports MSCI’s decision window runs into mid-January 2026, and the market is already modeling outflow scenarios and knock-on effects if other index providers mirror MSCI’s logic. That uncertainty can raise volatility and change how investors value the equity’s capital-raising capacity. [25]
3) Nasdaq 100 mechanics: changes take effect Monday (Dec. 22) — and Strategy is still in
Strategy remains in the Nasdaq 100, and index changes take effect Dec. 22, which can concentrate rebalancing activity and liquidity events around the open and close. While this doesn’t automatically mean “up” or “down,” it can mean bigger volume and sharper intraday swings. [26]
4) Watch for fresh capital markets updates and SEC filings
Strategy’s most “fundamental” updates lately have been capital markets + Bitcoin holdings disclosures (ATM sales and BTC purchase updates). The most recent filing laid out the ATM and BTC update framework and pointed investors to Strategy’s dashboard as a disclosure channel. If the company updates buying activity again, that can quickly change sentiment — particularly if it implies higher dilution or more expensive funding. [27]
5) Broader market volatility spilled into Friday — and that can amplify moves in high-beta names like MSTR
Reuters flagged that Friday’s session was volatile in part because of “triple witching” dynamics (major derivatives expirations), while Investopedia reported options expirations at very large notional levels. High-beta, crypto-linked equities can see exaggerated moves when the overall tape is volatile. If volatility cools after expiration, MSTR can sometimes trade “more purely” as a Bitcoin proxy again. [28]
Bottom line for investors: the “Bitcoin proxy” trade now has an index-risk overlay
Going into the next open, Strategy stock is still fundamentally a leveraged sentiment instrument on Bitcoin — but Dec. 19 added a new, potentially structural risk factor: whether major index providers treat Bitcoin-heavy corporate balance sheets as equity-eligible operating businesses or as something closer to a fund-like vehicle. [29]
If Bitcoin strengthens materially, MSTR can still move sharply higher. But if index exclusion risk escalates (or if other index providers hint they’ll follow MSCI), the market may demand a bigger risk premium for holding MSTR — regardless of short-term crypto bounces. [30]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investors.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.investors.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
