TAIPEI, Jan 31, 2026, 22:44 (Taipei time) — Market closed.
- TSMC shares closed Friday 1.7% lower, underperforming the more stable broader market
- Taiwan’s GDP outperformed expectations, driven by strong AI-related export demand that has spotlighted chip supply chains once again
- Nvidia’s CEO mentioned that China is still working on finalising a licence for its H200 AI chip, with TSMC playing a key role in any production ramp-up
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s shares on the Taipei exchange closed Friday down 1.66% at T$1,775, halting a brief rally into month-end. Investors turned cautious ahead of the weekend amid renewed concerns over China policy risks.
Why this matters now: TSMC serves as a key indicator for Taiwan equities and, by extension, the hardware driving the global AI surge. Changes in export demand or chip regulations tend to hit the stock swiftly, often well ahead of upcoming earnings reports.
Taiwan reported a striking jump in fourth-quarter growth on Friday, fueled by robust demand for chips and tech tied to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The island’s statistics agency put preliminary Q4 GDP growth at 12.68% year on year, well above a Reuters poll median forecast of 8.5%.
Capital Economics said in a note that “export demand is likely to remain very strong” over the next year. The firm’s outlook typically boosts the entire chip sector but also sets high expectations for companies already priced as if flawless execution is guaranteed. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific…
China remains the immediate wildcard. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed Thursday that the licence for its H200 chip “is being finalised.” He added that if approval comes through, Nvidia will coordinate with manufacturing partner TSMC “to schedule and plan the supply.” https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific…
Huang also highlighted local constraints, noting that demand for TSMC “wafers and capacity will far exceed” Taiwan’s energy supply. This underscores that capacity challenges aren’t just about equipment or talent. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific…
Behind the scenes, chip investors are grappling with valuations after a strong start this year in segments of the supply chain. In a Reuters column on ASML’s volatile trading, Aureus chief investment officer Han Dieperink noted, “Much of the good news is then already priced in.” https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific…
The broader Taiwan market has stayed resilient. TWSE data showed the TAIEX finished at 32,063.75 on Jan. 30, gaining 102.24 points from the previous week’s close. That leaves major tech stocks with less ground to fall.
Risks run both ways. If Beijing holds back or imposes conditions beyond what customers can accept, the H200 approvals might not lead to immediate orders. That could shake up TSMC’s utilisation forecasts and chip away at the premium investors assign to “AI certainty.”
Investors are now focused on hard data. TSMC will release its January monthly sales figures on Feb. 10, offering an early snapshot of demand and a test of whether the AI-driven export surge remains the key driver.
On Feb. 13, Taiwan’s statistics agency will release revised fourth-quarter GDP numbers and refresh its 2026 growth forecast. This update offers a key data point for a market where the largest stock doubles as the main growth story.
