Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock in December 2025: Bitcoin Crash, ETF Wipe‑Outs and a Surprise $1 Billion Bet

As of December 11, 2025

Overview: Why Strategy Inc Stock Is Back at the Center of the Market

Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR), the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has again become one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street. Since 21 November 2025, the stock has:

Dropped about 34.3% in November alone, closely tracking a sharp drawdown in Bitcoin. ^[1]
Fallen more than 40% year‑to‑date and over 60% from recent highs, even though Bitcoin itself is down far less over the same period. ^[2]
Traded in a violently wide range from about $155 on 1 December to nearly $198 intraday on 9 December, recently settling around the mid‑$180s. ^[3]

At the same time, Strategy has:

Slashed its 2025 earnings outlook by tens of billions of dollars (on paper). ^[4]
Set aside $1.44 billion to cover dividends and interest for roughly 21 months. ^[5]
Bought almost $1 billion of Bitcoin in a single week, adding over 10,000 BTC as prices rebounded. ^[6]

Since 21 November 2025, the story of Strategy Inc stock has morphed from “leveraged Bitcoin play” into a live stress test of leverage, liquidity, ETFs, and index inclusion. Below is a structured look at all the major news, forecasts, and analyses published from that date onward—and what they mean for MSTR now.

What Is Strategy Inc (MSTR) Today?

In August 2025, MicroStrategy formally changed its legal name to Strategy Inc, completing a rebrand that reflects its evolution into the world’s first dedicated Bitcoin treasury company while still selling enterprise analytics software. ^[7]

Key identity points:

Business model:
- Bitcoin treasury at massive scale (over 660,000 BTC as of December 2025, ~3% of total supply). ^[8]
- AI‑powered analytics and cloud software, with ~$475 million in annual software revenue. ^[9]
Tickers:
- Common stock: MSTR
- Multiple preferred share classes: STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, which help fund the Bitcoin strategy. ^[10]

For investors, MSTR behaves far less like a traditional software stock and far more like a leveraged, actively managed Bitcoin wrapper—with extra layers of corporate leverage, dilution, and index‑related flows.

From November 21 to Early December: Bitcoin Slump Turns Into an MSTR Meltdown

21 November: A Key Pivot Point

By 21 November 2025, Bitcoin had already pulled back sharply from its October all‑time high near $126,000, sliding to around $80,000—roughly a 30–36% drawdown. ^[11]

MSTR followed:

On 21 November, Strategy’s stock closed near $170.50, down from the mid‑$230s earlier in the month, reflecting growing anxiety about the Bitcoin correction. ^[12]

This date effectively marks the start of the current phase of stress for Strategy—where questions about liquidity, ETF spillovers and index risk joined the usual Bitcoin volatility narrative.

November 2025: A Brutal Month

According to data summarized by Nasdaq, MSTR fell 34.3% in November 2025, driven largely by Bitcoin’s decline during the month. ^[13]

Times of India reports that, from recent highs, Strategy’s stock is now down more than 60%, erasing gains built during the 2024–early‑2025 crypto mania. ^[14]

ETF Wipe‑Outs and “Death Spiral” Fears

Leveraged MSTR ETFs Implode

As Bitcoin and MSTR slid, leveraged ETFs tied to Strategy were hit even harder:

T‑Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF and
Defiance Daily 2x Long MSTR ETF

have each lost nearly 85% of their value in 2025, while a 2x inverse product is down around 48%. ^[15]

Times of India notes that:

Three key leveraged MSTR funds (MSTX, MSTU, MSTP) have dropped over 80%, collectively shedding about $1.5 billion in assets since early October. ^[16]

For retail traders who piled into these single‑stock ETFs as a “turbocharged” way to bet on MSTR, the unwind has been devastating, fueling concerns about broader benchmark risk as these products and MSTR itself are held inside major indices. ^[17]

mNAV, Bitcoin Sales, and Index Exclusion Risk

A key new obsession for the market is Strategy’s “mNAV”—its enterprise value relative to the market value of its Bitcoin stack:

Reuters estimates the ratio around 1.1x, down from much higher premiums in prior years. ^[18]
Times of India describes ~1.15x as a “caution zone” and notes management has warned that falling below 1.0x could eventually force Bitcoin sales to meet payout obligations—something CEO Phong Le framed as a last resort on a podcast. ^[19]

New anxieties have also emerged around index membership:

JPMorgan and other analysts have flagged a real risk that Strategy could be removed from MSCI USA and even the Nasdaq‑100, which could trigger billions in passive outflows if benchmark‑tracking funds are forced to sell. ^[20]
FXStreet cites estimates of $2.8 billion in forced selling from an MSCI exclusion alone, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow. ^[21]

FXStreet also reports that JPMorgan has raised margin requirements on MSTR to 95%, making leveraged trading in the stock more expensive and further tightening liquidity conditions. ^[22]

Earnings Reset and a $1.44 Billion Safety Buffer

Guidance Cut: From Paper Profit to a Wide Range

In early December, Reuters reported that Strategy slashed its full‑year outlook dramatically:

From a previous forecast of about $24 billion in net profit, which assumed Bitcoin at $150,000 by year‑end,
To a much wider range between roughly $6.3 billion profit and a $5.5 billion loss. ^[23]

Because Strategy marks its Bitcoin holdings at fair value, these enormous headline “profit” numbers are more about Bitcoin revaluation than about software operations—but the cut underscores how sensitive the company’s reported earnings are to BTC’s path.

Building a Cash Reserve for Obligations

To address fears that it might have to sell Bitcoin to fund payouts, Strategy:

Disclosed a $1.44 billion reserve dedicated to paying interest on debt and dividends on preferred stock, covering around 21 months of obligations. ^[24]

FXStreet’s deep dive into the capital structure highlights:

Total debt: about $8.2 billion, with the first major maturity in 2027 and the rest between 2028–2030.
Annual debt + preferred dividend obligations: about $848 million.
Software revenue: roughly $475 million, meaning software alone doesn’t fully cover these obligations.
Cash reserve: the $1.44 billion buffer now covers those payments for ~21 months. ^[25]

Crucially, most of Strategy’s debt is convertible, not traditional term debt:

Bondholders generally cannot force liquidation; they can only convert into equity at strike prices above current levels (roughly $183–$672). ^[26]

That structure reduces the risk of a near‑term debt “margin call,” though it doesn’t eliminate the long‑term dilution or refinancing risk.

A Surprise: Strategy Buys Nearly $1 Billion of Bitcoin in a Week

After a period of smaller purchases (only ~130 BTC over two weeks), Strategy surprised the market by returning to aggressive buying:

Between 1 and 7 December 2025, the company bought 10,624 BTC for almost $1 billion, at an average price around $90,615 per coin, bringing total Bitcoin holdings to over $60.6 billion in value. ^[27]

This buying spree came after:

MSTR had dropped to around $155 on 1 December in a “panicky selloff” across crypto‑linked equities,
Bitcoin had dipped below $90,000 from its October high above $126,000, before stabilizing in the $90,000–$94,000 range. ^[28]

Following the announcement of the large BTC purchase:

Barron’s and Bitcoin‑focused outlets noted that the move signaled renewed confidence from Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, even as the stock remained more than 60% below its July 2025 peak. ^[29]
MSTR rebounded sharply, trading as high as $198.40 intraday on 9 December and closing that day around $188.99, up 2.9% on volume almost 60% above average. ^[30]

In other words, after a brutal November and early‑December “flush”, Strategy doubled down on its core thesis: buy more Bitcoin on weakness, funded largely by new equity and preferred issuance.

Latest Earnings and the Core Business Behind the Bitcoin

Beneath the Bitcoin headlines, Strategy still has an operating software business:

In the quarter ended 30 October 2025, the company reported:
- EPS of $8.42, crushing a consensus expectation of –$0.10.
- Revenue of about $128.7 million, up 10.9% year‑over‑year, and ahead of estimates.
- Full‑year 2025 EPS guidance around $80. ^[31]

These strong headline numbers, however, are heavily influenced by Bitcoin revaluation gains. FXStreet and other commentators emphasize that:

Annual software revenue (~$475 million) is less than the $848 million in yearly interest and dividend obligations, meaning the Bitcoin strategy and capital markets access are central to the company’s economics. ^[32]

MarketBeat characterizes the stock’s fundamentals as follows:

Market cap roughly in the $50–55 billion range.
P/E ratio under 10, reflecting enormous but volatile accounting profits.
High beta (~3.4), underlining MSTR’s extreme volatility relative to the broader market. ^[33]

How Analysts and Commentators See MSTR Now

Street Consensus: Still Bullish, but More Cautious

Despite the dramatic drawdown, the sell‑side remains broadly positive on Strategy:

Reuters reports that, among 16 brokerages following the stock, there are:
- 10 “Buy” ratings
- 4 “Strong Buy” equivalents
- 2 “Hold” ratings
- Median 12‑month price target around $485, implying roughly 180% upside from current prices. ^[34]

MarketBeat also describes Strategy’s consensus rating as “Moderate Buy”, with an average target of about $475.80. ^[35]

On the individual firm level (TipRanks and other aggregators): ^[36]

Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target 59%, from $560 to $229, but kept an “Overweight” (Buy) rating.
Bernstein, TD Cowen, Mizuho, Benchmark, BTIG, Clear Street, H.C. Wainwright, Citi, Canaccord and others all reiterated Buy ratings through November and early December, though many trimmed price targets into the $350–$550 range (often quoted in CHF for the Swiss listing).
Monness and Wells Fargo upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold / Neutral in November, recognizing that the biggest “premium compression” move may already have occurred.

Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) dubs Strategy “Wall Street’s favorite stock,” noting: ^[37]

An average upside estimate of ~184%,
Some Bitcoin price targets as high as $225,000 by 2026 baked into bullish MSTR models,
But also pointing out that:
- Around 96% of recent BTC purchases were funded by new stock issuance,
- Annual interest and dividend obligations are near $800 million,
- Convertible debt totals about $6.8 billion, leaving little room for prolonged missteps.

Bearish & Skeptical Analyses: Liquidity and “Premium Death Spiral”

On the other side, a growing body of research argues MSTR’s biggest problem isn’t just Bitcoin volatility—it’s structural:

FXStreet’s longform analysis concludes that Strategy “has real problems, but isn’t in a death spiral”. Key points include: ^[38]
- mNAV premium collapsed from 3.4x in November 2024 to ~0.91x today.
- For the first time since 2022, Strategy’s market cap has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
- 94% of recent Bitcoin purchases have been funded by issuing new shares at or below 1.0x mNAV, effectively transferring value from existing shareholders to new ones.
- Institutional giants such as Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity, Capital International and JPMorgan cut their aggregate MSTR positions by over $5 billion in Q3 2025, as spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT became the preferred vehicle.
- The launch of spot BTC ETFs has structurally eroded Strategy’s moat as a unique Bitcoin access point.

Additional skeptical commentary from outlets like TradingKey, Seeking Alpha, and Yahoo Finance hammer on similar themes: ^[39]

Rising margin requirements and tighter risk controls from brokers.
A potential “liquidity crisis” where Strategy must continually issue stock at low valuations to stay ahead of obligations.
The risk that further index exclusions and ETF deleveraging could create a feedback loop of selling pressure.

Short‑seller Jim Chanos, who famously called Enron, is cited by FXStreet as having: ^[40]

Entered his MSTR short around 2.5x mNAV in late 2024,
Exited in November 2025 near 1.23x, with about 100% returns,
Argued that MSTR’s mNAV would inevitably trend toward 1.0x—something that has now happened and gone further (to ~0.91x).

Quant and Algorithmic Forecasts

Quantitative forecasting tools also weigh in, though their outputs are highly model‑dependent:

Sites like Financhill track daily price paths and generate 1‑year predictions for MSTR, typically projecting moderate to high double‑digit upside, but with very wide confidence intervals due to extreme volatility. ^[41]

These algorithmic forecasts don’t incorporate qualitative risks such as index exclusion, regulatory shifts, or capital‑markets access as deeply as human analysts—and they can change rapidly as new price data arrives. They’re best treated as scenario‑testing inputs, not as standalone investment advice.

Key Numbers Investors Are Watching Right Now

Based on the latest reporting and analyses as of 11 December 2025: ^[42]

Bitcoin price:
- ~$90,000–$94,000, down roughly 27–30% from October highs around $126,000.
Strategy Bitcoin holdings:
- About 660,624 BTC, cost basis $74,696/BTC, cost ≈ $49.35B; market value ≈ $60B.
Strategy market cap:
- Roughly $52–55B, meaning the stock now trades at a discount to the value of its Bitcoin.
mNAV (enterprise value / BTC holdings):
- Around 0.91x, versus 3.4x a year ago.
Debt & obligations:
- $8.2B total debt; first big maturity in 2027.
- ~$848M in annual interest + preferred dividends.
- $1.44B USD cash reserve covering ≈ 21 months of obligations.
Software revenue:
- ≈ $475M per year, less than cash obligations, so the Bitcoin + financing engine is critical.
YTD performance (2025):
- Bitcoin: about –1.5%.
- MSTR: about –40.4%.

These numbers underline a key truth: MSTR is no longer a pure “Bitcoin leverage” story; it’s a capital structure and index‑flow story layered on top of a huge Bitcoin position.

Bull, Bear and Middle‑Ground Scenarios for Strategy Inc Stock

Nothing here is personal financial advice, but we can map how current news and forecasts break down into three broad scenario camps.

1. Bull Case: Bitcoin Super‑Cycle + Premium Recovery

What bullish analysts and commentators are effectively betting on: ^[43]

Bitcoin resumes its uptrend, reclaiming and surpassing October’s all‑time highs; some models assume BTC at $150,000–$225,000 by 2026.
MSTR’s mNAV premium re‑expands above 1.0x as investor confidence returns, restoring its historic leverage effect.
The MSCI decision in early 2026 and any index‑related selling prove manageable or largely “priced in”.
Strategy continues to raise capital on acceptable terms, using share and preferred issuance to accumulate even more BTC without ever needing to sell.

In this world, Street targets in the $400–$500+ range (or CHF equivalents) could prove conservative, and MSTR behaves like a turbocharged Bitcoin exposure with corporate optionality.

2. Bear Case: Structural Erosion and Forced Deleveraging

Bearish research generally outlines a different path: ^[44]

Bitcoin stalls in the $80,000–$100,000 range or drops sharply again.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs fully displace Strategy as the default institutional vehicle, keeping mNAV near or below 1.0x, making further equity raises shareholder‑dilutive.
Index providers (starting with MSCI) remove Strategy from major benchmarks, triggering billions in forced selling and further compressing valuation.
Capital markets become less welcoming, forcing Strategy to slow Bitcoin purchases, rely more heavily on costly preferreds, or eventually sell BTC to fund obligations.

Under this view, the risk isn’t an overnight bankruptcy—FXStreet stresses that debt maturities are far out and reserves are sizable—but a long, grinding dilution + outflow cycle where MSTR underperforms both Bitcoin and the broader market.

3. Middle‑Ground View: Volatile but Not Doomed

Some nuanced analyses fall between the extremes: ^[45]

Strategy’s core “buy Bitcoin with leverage” thesis is weaker than it was pre‑ETF, but the company still holds a huge BTC hoard with meaningful buffers and flexible financing tools.
The premium is gone, but that also means the easiest short trade (betting on premium compression) may be behind us—indeed, Jim Chanos has already exited his short.
The January 15, 2026 MSCI decision is the next major binary catalyst, but the stock has already fallen ~25% since the consultation was announced, suggesting some of the damage may already be priced in.
MSTR may settle into a role as a high‑beta, high‑volatility Bitcoin proxy whose long‑term returns depend on both BTC’s path and management’s discipline on issuance and leverage.

Practical Takeaways for Potential and Current Investors

Again, none of this is tailored advice—just a synthesis of what the news and research since 21 November 2025 suggest you might want to watch if you follow Strategy Inc stock:

Bitcoin Direction Is Still the Primary Driver
- Most forecasts, bullish or bearish, assume a strong link between BTC and MSTR. If you wouldn’t be comfortable with a 50–80% Bitcoin drawdown, MSTR’s historic volatility may be too high for your risk tolerance. ^[46]
mNAV (Premium/Discount to BTC) Is Critical
- Above 1.0x, new share issuance can add value to existing holders;
- Below 1.0x, issuance becomes value‑transfer from old to new shareholders. Strategy is currently around 0.91x, so dilution is a central risk. ^[47]
Index and ETF Flows Could Dominate Price Action
- Watch MSCI’s consultation process and any news on Nasdaq‑100 or other index changes; forced flows can overwhelm fundamentals in the short term. ^[48]
Capital Markets Access Is a Lifeline
- The recent $1.44B raised in under nine trading days shows markets remain open to Strategy—for now. If future raises become expensive or impossible, the risk profile changes dramatically. ^[49]
Watch the Core Software Business, Not Just the BTC Stack
- Growth in analytics and cloud revenue could gradually improve the company’s ability to fund obligations without relying solely on Bitcoin and equity issuance, though it’s currently not sufficient on its own. ^[50]

If you’re considering MSTR, many analysts suggest comparing it against direct Bitcoin ownership and spot BTC ETFs, which offer simpler exposure with different trade‑offs in fees, custody, and leverage. ^[51]

Final Word

Since 21 November 2025, Strategy Inc stock has gone through a compressed cycle of:

Drawdown (Bitcoin crash, ETF wipe‑outs, index fears),
De‑risking (earnings guidance reset, large cash reserve), and
Re‑risking (nearly $1B in new Bitcoin bought on the dip).

The debate around MSTR has become more nuanced: it is neither a guaranteed “death spiral” nor a simple way to “own Bitcoin with leverage.” It’s a complex, high‑beta instrument whose future will likely hinge on:

Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory,
Index providers’ decisions,
Management’s ability to raise capital without destroying shareholder value, and
Whether investors are still willing to pay any premium for a corporate wrapper around BTC.