Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) heads into the week with fresh Nasdaq 100 clarity, a looming MSCI index-rule decision, and an updated Bitcoin-and-cash playbook—plus sharply diverging Wall Street price targets.
Updated: Sunday, December 14, 2025
Strategy Inc—known to many investors by its legacy name MicroStrategy—has become one of the most closely watched “Bitcoin treasury” stocks in public markets. On Dec. 14, 2025, the story is being driven by three forces: (1) confirmation that Strategy will remain in the Nasdaq 100 following the annual reconstitution, (2) a separate and potentially larger index inclusion risk tied to MSCI’s proposed rules for crypto-heavy firms, and (3) the company’s latest disclosed Bitcoin purchases and liquidity moves.
Below is a detailed, publication-ready breakdown of today’s key news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping Strategy Inc stock.
Strategy Inc stock price today: where MSTR stands on Dec. 14, 2025
U.S. markets are closed today (Sunday), so the most recent official reference points for Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) are from Friday’s session.
- MSTR last price: about $176.45, down roughly 3.7% on the most recent session. [1]
- Bitcoin spot price (context driver): about $89,357 at the time of writing.
Because Strategy’s balance sheet and earnings have become highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements (including through fair-value accounting of crypto holdings), MSTR often trades less like a traditional enterprise software name and more like a leveraged Bitcoin proxy—especially during fast moves in crypto. [2]
The headline catalyst: Strategy remains in the Nasdaq 100
A major near-term overhang eased this weekend: Strategy will remain in the Nasdaq 100 after the index’s annual reshuffle—despite debate over whether the company still “fits” as a technology constituent given its Bitcoin-centric model. Reuters reported that Strategy retained its place and that the broader Nasdaq 100 changes are expected to take effect Dec. 22, 2025. [3]
Why that matters for the stock:
- Passive fund flows can be meaningful. Ahead of the decision, analysts publicly discussed the possibility that Strategy could be removed—and estimated that removal could trigger around $1.6 billion in passive outflows. [4]
- Remaining in the index reduces a mechanical selling risk (at least on the Nasdaq side) and supports Strategy’s ongoing ability to access capital markets on better terms than smaller peers—an important point for a company that frequently raises funds to buy more Bitcoin.
MarketWatch’s coverage of the Nasdaq 100 reconstitution also noted that Strategy “maintained its place” in the index as new names rotate in and out later this month. [5]
The bigger looming catalyst: MSCI’s proposed crypto-heavy index rules
While Nasdaq 100 fears have cooled, MSCI index eligibility is the next major catalyst.
Multiple reports this week described an MSCI proposal that could exclude companies whose crypto holdings exceed a threshold (widely cited as 50% of total assets) from certain MSCI indexes—raising the prospect of forced selling by passive vehicles that track MSCI benchmarks. [6]
Key “as of Dec. 14” takeaways:
- Strategy’s leadership has publicly pushed back on the proposal, arguing it is unworkable and could create instability by forcing index additions/removals simply due to crypto price swings. [7]
- Several articles point to a decision timeline around mid-January 2026 (commonly referenced as Jan. 15, 2026). [8]
- Estimates of potential liquidation pressure vary by source, but Investor’s Business Daily cited a scenario of up to $2.8 billion in selling if MSCI exclusion occurs (attribution in that reporting to JPMorgan research). [9]
In short: Nasdaq risk faded, MSCI risk remains. Reuters also flagged that MSCI is expected to decide in January whether to exclude Strategy and similar “digital-asset treasury” companies. [10]
Bitcoin purchases: Strategy’s latest 8‑K confirms another major buy
Strategy’s most recent Bitcoin purchase disclosure remains a central driver of both sentiment and valuation models.
In an SEC filing, Strategy reported that as of Dec. 7, 2025 it had:
- Acquired 10,624 BTC
- For an aggregate purchase price of $962.7 million
- At an average price of $90,615 per Bitcoin
- Bringing total holdings to 660,624 BTC (aggregate purchase price $49.35 billion, average $74,696). [11]
The same filing states the purchases were funded using proceeds from selling shares of STRD Stock and MSTR Stock under the company’s at-the-market (ATM) program. [12]
From a stock perspective, this matters for two reasons:
- “Bitcoin per share” narratives: Bulls focus on BTC accumulation and the idea that Strategy can increase Bitcoin exposure per share over time (especially when issuing securities above some perceived net asset value).
- Financing and dilution: Bears focus on the cost of capital, dilution from ATM issuance, and whether the market will keep assigning a premium multiple to Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings.
Barron’s framed the latest purchase as a potential confidence signal, though it also highlighted that at least one major firm cut its target sharply (more on that below). [13]
Liquidity and “dividend coverage”: the $1.44B USD reserve and updated FY2025 guidance
One of the most important company-specific updates heading into mid-December was Strategy’s own announcement that it has established a $1.44 billion “USD Reserve” to support payments tied to preferred stock dividends and interest on debt. The company said the reserve was funded using proceeds from selling Class A shares via its ATM program. [14]
Strategy said it intends to maintain enough USD reserve to fund at least 12 months of these payments, aiming over time for 24 months or more—and noted the reserve currently covers 21 months of dividends, per management commentary in the release. [15]
FY2025 forecast ranges (company guidance)
Strategy also updated assumptions and provided FY2025 guidance ranges that depend heavily on the year-end Bitcoin price. It moved away from an earlier assumption of $150,000 Bitcoin at year-end and instead provided a range framework based on $85,000 to $110,000 Bitcoin as of Dec. 31, 2025. [16]
Under that Bitcoin price range assumption, Strategy guided to:
- FY2025 Operating Income (Loss): approximately $(7.0)B to $9.5B
- FY2025 Net Income (Loss): approximately $(5.5)B to $6.3B
- FY2025 Diluted EPS: approximately $(17.0) to $19.0 [17]
It also reiterated Bitcoin-focused KPI targets (not traditional GAAP measures):
- FY2025 BTC Yield Target:22% to 26%
- FY2025 BTC $ Gain Target:$8.4B to $12.8B [18]
This guidance is crucial for Google News readers because it underscores the company’s own admission: reported earnings can swing dramatically with Bitcoin price changes under fair-value accounting rules, even if the software business is relatively stable. [19]
Strategy’s “software company” side: why it still matters (but less than Bitcoin)
Even as Strategy brands itself as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, it still operates an enterprise analytics software business—and that legacy segment remains part of how index providers and analysts classify the firm.
Reuters noted that Strategy’s legacy software revenue was $128.7 million (in the context of its recent reporting), highlighting how comparatively small the operating business can look next to Bitcoin-driven balance sheet exposure. [20]
Still, the enterprise business is not dormant. A notable corporate development earlier this month: Strategy and HCLTech announced a strategic partnership to accelerate adoption and deployment of Strategy Mosaic, the company’s AI-powered “Universal Semantic Layer,” aimed at complex multicloud enterprise environments. [21]
For investors, this is less likely to move the stock day-to-day than Bitcoin and index headlines—but it remains relevant for:
- long-term narrative (is this still an operating company or effectively a holding vehicle?), and
- how major benchmarks, credit markets, and regulators treat Strategy.
Wall Street forecasts: why MSTR price targets are all over the map
If you’re trying to understand “where the stock could go,” the most important fact is that even professional forecasts diverge wildly—because they embed assumptions about Bitcoin price, capital markets access, and whether MSTR trades at a premium or discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Recent notable target changes and calls
- Cantor Fitzgerald: multiple reports indicate Cantor cut its 12‑month price target sharply (commonly cited to $229 from $560) while maintaining a bullish stance (e.g., “Overweight”). [22]
- Bernstein: Investing.com reported Bernstein lowered its target to $450 from $600 while keeping an “Outperform” rating. [23]
Consensus targets (aggregators)
Consensus snapshots from widely used market aggregators show a broad bullish tilt, but with extreme dispersion:
- MarketBeat (18 analysts): average $475.80, high $705, low $54. [24]
- TipRanks (14 analysts): average $481.08, high $705, low $229, and a “Strong Buy” consensus in its dataset. [25]
- StockAnalysis (15 analysts): average rating “Strong Buy,” 12‑month target $497.29. [26]
What these targets are really saying
Even without a chart, the implication is clear:
- Bull case targets assume Bitcoin stabilizes/rises, Strategy keeps accessing capital efficiently, and the stock regains a premium over its Bitcoin holdings.
- Bear case targets assume the opposite: Bitcoin weakness, higher financing costs, index-related selling, and/or a persistent discount to the company’s Bitcoin net asset value.
The key debate in December 2025: premium vs. discount to Bitcoin holdings
A recurring theme across December analysis is whether Strategy can sustain the “premium-to-Bitcoin” valuation that historically supported its model of raising capital to buy more BTC.
- MarketWatch noted that MSTR has at times swung from trading at large premiums in earlier years to trading near parity—or even at a discount—relative to the Bitcoin it holds, and also discussed the pressure created by sizable annual dividend obligations tied to preferred structures. [27]
- Reuters quantified the tension by pointing out that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings were worth more than its market value at one point in the recent discussion window—an unusual setup for an equity that previously traded well above its BTC value. [28]
This premium/discount dynamic is not academic. It can influence:
- how dilutive future ATM issuance becomes,
- how expensive preferred/dividend financing is, and
- whether the market treats Strategy as a tech stock, a crypto proxy, or a hybrid credit-and-equity issuer.
Competitive pressure: new Bitcoin-treasury rivals are emerging
Strategy pioneered the “public Bitcoin treasury” playbook, but December 2025 reporting highlights a more crowded field.
Investor’s Business Daily reported on the public market debut of Twenty One Capital, a new Bitcoin treasury firm backed by major crypto players, presenting itself as a rival approach that emphasizes revenue generation over debt-financed accumulation. [29]
For Strategy shareholders, new competitors can matter in two ways:
- investor choice: more vehicles to express a Bitcoin thesis may dilute demand for MSTR specifically;
- valuation discipline: as the “category” expands, the market may become less willing to award any single name a persistent premium.
What to watch next for Strategy (MSTR): the next set of catalysts
Heading into the second half of December, the key watch items for investors and readers are straightforward:
- Bitcoin volatility: Strategy itself says earnings are extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s market price under fair-value accounting. [30]
- Nasdaq 100 reconstitution effective date (Dec. 22): Strategy remains in; other constituents rotate. [31]
- MSCI timeline: market reporting repeatedly points to mid-January 2026 for a decision on proposed rules affecting crypto-heavy firms, with potential index-driven flow impact. [32]
- Further SEC filings: the market is highly reactive to updated Bitcoin purchase disclosures and financing changes, as seen in the recent 8‑K. [33]
- Liquidity posture: the $1.44B USD reserve framework is designed to reassure investors about dividend/interest servicing capacity—especially if Bitcoin remains volatile. [34]
Bottom line for Dec. 14, 2025
As of today, Strategy Inc stock is being pulled by two narratives at once:
- Stability narrative: Nasdaq 100 retention removes one near-term mechanical risk and reinforces Strategy’s large-cap relevance. [35]
- Stress-test narrative: MSCI’s pending rule changes, combined with the ongoing premium/discount debate and reliance on capital markets, keeps the stock in a high-volatility bucket—tightly tethered to Bitcoin price and index-provider decisions. [36]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.strategy.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.strategy.com, 15. www.strategy.com, 16. www.strategy.com, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.strategy.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.hcltech.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investors.com, 30. www.strategy.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.investors.com, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.strategy.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.investors.com
