Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR)—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy—heads into the Christmas-shortened trading week with investors focused less on its legacy software business and more on three immediate drivers: bitcoin price direction, index-provider scrutiny, and the company’s ongoing capital-raising machine that funds more BTC purchases. [1]
As of the latest available quote, MSTR was at $164.82 (last reported trade after Friday’s session), a level that underscores how quickly sentiment can swing when bitcoin volatility meets thin holiday liquidity.
Below is what matters most for the week ahead (Dec. 22–26, 2025)—including the latest confirmed bitcoin-buy updates, fresh credit commentary, major index developments, and where Wall Street targets cluster for 2026.
Where Strategy stock stands heading into the week
Strategy has leaned fully into its identity as a bitcoin treasury company—and the market continues to treat MSTR as a high-volatility proxy for BTC, amplified by leverage, dilution risk, and shifting perceptions of its “premium” versus underlying bitcoin holdings. [2]
That sensitivity matters even more late in December because:
- Strategy itself has warned that its reported results can swing materially with bitcoin’s year-end price, reflecting both accounting treatment and the sheer size of its BTC position. [3]
- Trading conditions next week are not normal: U.S. equities will run into early closes and a full market holiday, which can exaggerate moves in stocks tied to fast-moving underlying assets like bitcoin. [4]
The biggest near-term catalyst: MSCI’s index proposal and “fund-like” classification fears
One of the most market-moving themes around Strategy right now has nothing to do with a new product launch or earnings—it’s about whether major index providers decide that companies holding mostly digital assets should be treated more like funds than operating companies.
What’s new (and why it matters this week)
Reuters reported on Dec. 19, 2025 that MSCI is considering excluding publicly traded firms whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets from its global equity indexes, arguing those firms can resemble investment funds. MSCI’s consultation is open until Jan. 15, 2026. [5]
For Strategy, the worry is mechanical: if an index provider removes MSTR, passive funds tracking that index may be forced to sell, potentially pressuring the share price regardless of fundamentals. Reuters cited estimates that the impact could reach up to $9 billion in outflows for Strategy under certain scenarios. [6]
Just two weeks earlier, Reuters also reported that Strategy was engaging with MSCI about the potential exclusion, with JPMorgan estimates circulating as high as $8.8 billion if multiple index providers followed. [7]
Why this matters in a holiday week
Index-driven narratives can become self-fulfilling in thin markets: fewer participants can mean larger price gaps when headlines hit—especially for a stock already treated as a “BTC beta” trade. [8]
Nasdaq 100 update: Strategy stays in—reconstitution takes effect Dec. 22
While MSCI risk is a forward-looking overhang, one index story is immediate and dated: Nasdaq 100 changes take effect Monday, Dec. 22, 2025.
Reuters reported on Dec. 13, 2025 that Strategy remains in the Nasdaq 100, even as the index announced removals and additions effective Dec. 22—a notable outcome given rising debate about whether Strategy is closer to a bitcoin vehicle than a traditional tech company. [9]
For the coming week, the key takeaway is simple:
- Strategy did not get forced out of Nasdaq 100—so it avoids an immediate “passive sell” shock from that benchmark. [10]
- But the broader controversy around classification is still alive, especially because Reuters noted that other providers could watch MSCI’s move. [11]
The confirmed bitcoin-buy engine: latest 8-K shows 671,268 BTC held (as of Dec. 14)
For Strategy, the most important recurring “event” is often its next bitcoin purchase disclosure.
The latest filed update (what the company actually reported)
In a Form 8‑K disclosure covering Dec. 8–14, 2025, Strategy reported it acquired:
- 10,645 BTC
- for an aggregate $980.3 million
- at an average price of $92,098 per bitcoin (including fees/expenses) [12]
As of Dec. 14, 2025, Strategy reported total holdings of:
- 671,268 BTC
- purchased for an aggregate $50.33 billion
- at an average cost of $74,972 per bitcoin. [13]
How it funded the purchase (dilution remains central)
The same 8‑K shows Strategy funding the purchases through at‑the‑market issuance across multiple securities, including MSTR common stock and preferred instruments (STRF, STRK, STRD). Total net proceeds for the week were shown as $989.0 million, with 4,789,664 shares of MSTR sold among the mix. [14]
This is the heart of the bull vs. bear debate: Strategy’s model can accelerate BTC accumulation—but investors must weigh bitcoin-per-share upside against share count growth and funding costs.
Credit and liquidity: S&P affirms “B-” as Strategy builds a $1.44B USD reserve
Another major December development is Strategy’s evolving liquidity posture—especially to address investor concern that preferred dividends could eventually force a bitcoin sale.
The USD reserve (company guidance)
In a Dec. 1 announcement (filed as Exhibit 99.1), Strategy said it established a $1.44 billion USD Reserve intended to support dividend and interest payments, initially targeting coverage of at least 12 months, with a stated goal to build toward 24 months or more over time. [15]
The same filing states Strategy then held 650,000 bitcoin, which it framed as about 3.1% of the 21 million maximum BTC supply (a snapshot statement from that date). [16]
S&P’s view (and what investors should extract from it)
On Dec. 16, 2025, Investing.com reported (summarizing S&P Global Ratings) that S&P affirmed Strategy’s ‘B-’ issuer credit rating with a stable outlook, describing the USD reserve as credit positive because it helps mitigate liquidity risk during periods of limited capital-market access. [17]
That same report highlights several points that matter for MSTR traders into year-end:
- S&P noted Strategy has over $8 billion notional of convertible debt, with the nearest maturity around September 2028 and a put right starting September 2027. [18]
- S&P also emphasized Strategy’s narrow business focus and limited operating cash flow, with reported negative operating cash flow over the first nine months of 2025 and earnings heavily driven by BTC appreciation. [19]
- The rating could be pressured if capital-market access weakens—an important link back to the MSCI/index inclusion debate. [20]
Wall Street targets: “Strong Buy” consensus, but a very wide range
MSTR analyst targets remain unusually dispersed—because analysts are effectively underwriting multiple variables at once: bitcoin trajectory, premium/discount to NAV, dilution pace, and future financing costs.
Investing.com’s consensus estimates page shows:
- Average 12-month price target: ~489.6
- High: 705
- Low: 229
- Consensus rating presented as Strong Buy (based on its tracked analyst set). [21]
The caution flag behind bullish targets
Even bulls have turned more conservative in some recent notes. The Financial Times reported Cantor Fitzgerald cut its 12‑month target to $229 from $560, while maintaining a buy stance—framing the adjustment as driven by bitcoin’s pullback and weaker “mNAV” conditions across digital-asset treasury companies. [22]
In other words: bullish long-term theses can coexist with lower near-term targets when volatility spikes.
Trading calendar reality: the Christmas week setup can amplify volatility
This week is structurally different for U.S. markets:
- Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025: early close at 1:00 p.m. ET (NYSE/Nasdaq) [23]
- Thursday, Dec. 25: markets closed [24]
- Friday, Dec. 26: markets open for a full session, despite a federal directive affecting government offices—major exchanges confirmed they will follow the original trading schedule. [25]
For a stock like MSTR—often trading as a leveraged expression of bitcoin sentiment—holiday liquidity can matter as much as fundamentals.
Macro data that could spill into Bitcoin—and therefore MSTR—next week
Even with the holiday, markets still face catalysts that can shift risk appetite (and indirectly crypto demand).
Investopedia’s week-ahead preview highlights a cluster of U.S. releases expected Tuesday, including a delayed Q3 GDP report (noted as impacted by a government shutdown), plus other delayed economic reports and consumer confidence. Jobless claims are also a focus mid-week. [26]
Separately, Reuters’ “Morning Bid” preview flagged GDP, consumer confidence, factory-related data, and jobless claims as key week drivers into the holiday period. [27]
Why it matters for MSTR: in the current market regime, bitcoin can react sharply to changing rate expectations and risk sentiment—then MSTR often reacts more sharply still.
Week-ahead playbook: what to watch day by day (Dec. 22–26)
Monday (Dec. 22): Nasdaq 100 changes take effect; watch for BTC-linked momentum
- Nasdaq 100 annual changes go live (Strategy remains included). [28]
- Traders often watch for the usual early-week Strategy rhythm: the company’s BTC activity is frequently disclosed via filings, and sentiment can run ahead of confirmation.
Tuesday (Dec. 23): economic-data shock potential
- GDP and consumer confidence headlines could move rates, the dollar, and risk assets broadly—possible spillover into bitcoin and then MSTR. [29]
Wednesday (Dec. 24): early close, thinner books
- Expect liquidity to fade quickly into the early close—price swings can become less “fundamental” and more flow-driven. [30]
Thursday (Dec. 25): closed (BTC trades; MSTR doesn’t)
- Bitcoin trades 24/7 even when equities are shut. Any major BTC move on Thursday can become a gap risk for MSTR when equities reopen.
Friday (Dec. 26): full session returns
- Exchanges confirmed they’ll be open as normal on Dec. 26. [31]
- If bitcoin moved materially during the holiday closure, Friday can turn into a “catch-up” session for crypto-linked equities.
Bottom line for Strategy (MSTR) stock next week
For the Dec. 22–26 window, Strategy stock is likely to trade on a tight set of catalysts:
- Bitcoin direction and volatility (still the core driver). [32]
- Index eligibility headlines—especially any follow-ups to MSCI’s proposal and consultation timeline. [33]
- Funding mechanics and dilution—because Strategy continues to use ATM issuance to buy BTC, and markets are actively judging whether the model is getting “more expensive” as MSTR’s premium compresses. [34]
- Holiday market structure—early close + closed session + BTC trading 24/7 can create gap risk. [35]
Analyst targets remain broadly bullish in aggregate, but the range (roughly $229 to $705) is a reminder that MSTR is not being valued like a typical operating company—investors are pricing an evolving bitcoin balance sheet, capital-market access, and index eligibility all at once. [36]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.nyse.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.ft.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.nyse.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.investing.com
