NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 15:18 EDT
- Retail sales increased by 0.2% in June, while sales excluding gasoline climbed 0.7%.
- Sales for the GDP-linked control group rose 0.5%. Economists had earlier forecast that real consumer spending would increase by 0.4%.
- At around 3:05 p.m., retail stocks were ahead of the S&P 500 by 2.2 percentage points.
U.S. consumer spending in June exceeded what the main retail data suggested. Retail stocks led gains, outperforming a declining S&P 500 as trading persisted during Thursday’s cash session.
The split is significant for investors.
Stronger demand at home and reduced enthusiasm for popular technology plays were indicated. Gains were seen in consumer-focused and equal-weight funds, while leading indexes fell under pressure from declines in chip stocks.
Nominal retail sales increased by 0.2%, as consumer prices declined 0.4%. Early estimates from economists show inflation-adjusted consumer spending grew 0.4% in June. This figure is not an official government statistic.
| Comparison | Stronger measure | Weaker measure | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying vs. headline sales | Ex-gas sales up by 0.7% | Headline sales up 0.2% | +0.5 pp |
| GDP-tied vs. headline sales | Control group up by 0.5% | Headline sales up 0.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Retail vs. S&P 500 | SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT) rose 1.65% | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) fell 0.56% | +2.21 pp |
| Equal weight vs. S&P 500 | S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA: RSP) up 0.74% | SPY declined 0.56% | +1.30 pp |
| Retail vs. technology | XRT increased 1.65% | QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) dropped 1.62% | +3.27 pp |
Preliminary economic data. Market activity logged at around 3:05 p.m. EDT.
The Commerce Department’s preliminary estimate showed June sales reached $768.6 billion, up 6.7% compared to the same month last year. May’s increase for the month was revised to 1.0%.
Receipts at gas stations dropped 5.3%, overshadowing stronger spending in other categories. Excluding fuel, sales increased 0.7%. Both auto and nonstore retail segments advanced by 1.9%.
Sales from control groups, a component used in GDP measurement, climbed 0.5%. The prior month’s gain was revised up to 0.8% for May.
“Ultimately, it’s a matter of chip stocks’ weight in the S&P 500,” said Paul Nolte, market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest. Chip stocks now make up over 20% of the index, up from 8% just a few years ago, Nolte added. Reuters
The economic outlook stayed robust. Initial jobless claims dropped to 208,000, marking the lowest figure since May. Economists raised their second-quarter GDP forecasts by at least 0.2 percentage points, with some now seeing 2.4%.
Bond investors responded to the data with a higher rate outlook. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed roughly three basis points to 4.573%.
Around 3:05 p.m., XRT was at $90.57, a gain of 1.65%. SPY was at $750.58, off 0.56%. RSP rose 0.74%, as QQQ slipped 1.62%.
The spread indicates that resilient economic conditions are supporting broader market participation. The primary indexes declined mainly due to weakness in chip stocks, rather than consumer-related concerns.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Prime Day helped lift online sales, with the event taking place a month ahead of its typical schedule. The earlier date could increase payback risk in July and August.
Risks: If gasoline prices climb, the relief seen at the pump in June could be undone. Additionally, decreased savings and slower wage increases might dampen demand in the third quarter.
