NEW YORK, August 8, 2026, 13:06 EDT
- The S&P 500 rose 3.6% to finish at an all-time high of 7,757.64.
- U.S. payrolls declined by 23,000 in July. Chances of a rate hike in September slipped to 44%.
- Consumer price index, producer price data, and retail sales are the main events slated for August 10–14.
U.S. cash markets did not open on Saturday. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Friday, finishing its best weekly performance since mid-April.
The standout trade featured a “bad macro, strong micro” divide. July payrolls fell 103,000 short of the 80,000 consensus estimate. Revisions also subtracted a further 103,000 from May and June totals. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Corporate earnings balanced the market. Approximately 85.1% of S&P 500 firms that have reported surpassed forecasts, exceeding the long-term average by 17.1 percentage points.
Below is the benchmark scorecard as of Friday’s market close.
Performance against benchmark
| Benchmark | Friday close | Friday | Week | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,757.64 | up 0.6% | up 3.6% | up 13.3% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,690.62 | up 1.3% | up 5.2% | up 14.8% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 54,036.93 | up 0.3% | up 3.0% | up 12.4% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,034.49 | up 1.1% | up 3.5% | up 22.3% |
Technology stocks outperformed, yet gains reached beyond just the major names. The Nasdaq outpaced the Dow by 2.2 percentage points. The Russell 2000 also rose 3.5%.
Market breadth was solid on Friday, with advancers surpassing decliners by over two-to-one across both key exchanges.
The payroll data softened below its headline figure. Labor-force participation declined to 61.4%. Average hourly earnings climbed 3.2% year-on-year.
As of Friday, futures indicated a 44% probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September, compared with 67% a week earlier.
The split between macro and micro trends this week is clearly evident.
Macro versus micro division
| Indicator | Latest reading | Comparison point | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| July payrolls change | -23,000 | +80,000 consensus | -103,000 |
| May-June payroll adjustments | -103,000 | Totals previously published | -103,000 |
| September rate hike odds | 44% | 67% a week ago | -23 points |
| S&P 500 percentage of earnings beats | 85.1% | 68.0% long-term mean | +17.1 points |
“You’re kind of in a pickle at this point,” said Tom Siomades, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management. Investors prefer inflation to ease, yet they do not want a significant labor slowdown that could hurt profits. Reuters
Wednesday’s consumer-price report stands out as the main focus. Economists forecast a 3.4% increase in headline inflation and a 2.5% rise in core inflation, both measured annually.
Below are the official publication times along with initial median estimates.
Economic calendar for the week ahead
| Date and time, ET | Release | Preliminary median forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug. 12, 08:30 | CPI | +0.1% month-on-month; +3.4% year-on-year | -0.4%; +3.5% |
| Wednesday, Aug. 12, 08:30 | Core CPI | +0.3% month-on-month; +2.5% year-on-year | 0.0%; +2.6% |
| Thursday, Aug. 13, 08:30 | Producer prices | +0.2%; core +0.3% | -0.3%; core +0.1% |
| Thursday, Aug. 13, 08:30 | Initial jobless claims | 203,000 | 199,000 |
| Friday, Aug. 14, 08:30 | Retail sales | +0.1%; excluding autos +0.2% | +0.2%; excluding autos -0.2% |
| Friday, Aug. 14, 10:00 | Consumer sentiment, preliminary | 54.5 | 54.2 |
Matthew Miskin of John Hancock Investment Management said, “The market has inflation anxiety.” A mild result would help sustain expectations for lower rates while also supporting the thesis for continued earnings. Reuters
A positive shock would be tougher for markets to take in. The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.64%, putting growth shares that are sensitive to interest rates at risk if yields climb again.
Corporate earnings offer another assessment. CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV, Cisco Systems NASDAQ:CSCO, and Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT are set to release results on consecutive days. Collectively, these companies represent AI infrastructure, networking, and semiconductor equipment.
Below are the scheduled times and initial analyst projections.
Earnings in focus
| Date | Company | Reporting schedule | Preliminary revenue estimate | Preliminary EPS estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Aug. 11 | CoreWeave | Q2 results at 17:00 ET | $2.56 billion | -$1.42 |
| Wednesday, Aug. 12 | Cisco Systems | Fiscal Q4 results at 16:30 ET | $16.83 billion | $1.17 |
| Thursday, Aug. 13 | Applied Materials | Fiscal Q3 results at 16:30 ET | $9.01 billion | $3.39 |
Stock swings for individual companies on Friday outpaced the broader index’s advance. Airbnb NASDAQ:ABNB surged 17.4%. Atlassian NASDAQ:TEAM climbed 35.3%. The Trade Desk NASDAQ:TTD dropped 21.9%.
Analysts issued widely varying calls. The implied changes shown below are based on Friday’s closing prices and reflect arithmetic comparisons rather than projections.
Analyst ratings
| Company | Analyst | Recommendation change | Target | Friday close | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbnb | Wedbush Securities | Neutral raised to Outperform | $200 | $178.07 | +12.3% |
| Atlassian | BofA Securities, part of Bank of America NYSE:BAC | Neutral upgraded to Buy | $175 | $149.07 | +17.4% |
| The Trade Desk | Evercore ISI, part of Evercore NYSE:EVR | Outperform lowered to In-line | $13 | $13.80 | -5.8% |
The recommendations echo the central takeaway of the week. Robust index gains left company-specific risks intact. Disparities between winners and losers continued to be shaped by earnings quality and forward guidance.
Risks: A higher-than-expected CPI or producer-price reading may push yields up and renew speculation of further tightening. Disappointing retail sales could amplify concerns over economic growth. Conservative guidance on AI spending could put pressure on the earnings momentum supporting the current market rally.
The situation goes beyond just “bad news is good news.” Investors require inflation to ease, consumption to remain steady, and earnings to keep meeting expectations. This raises the stakes, allowing limited tolerance for setbacks. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Related articles: US Economy
