As of December 3, 2025, Toronto‑Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD, TSX: TD) is trading just below its all‑time highs, after a spectacular 50%+ rally this year. That surge comes even as the bank works through the fallout of a record US anti‑money‑laundering (AML) settlement, a fast‑tracked CEO transition, and an ambitious cost‑cutting and AI‑driven growth strategy.
With Q4 2025 earnings due tomorrow and fresh research notes landing today, TD Bank stock is in the spotlight for global investors. Here’s a deep, news‑driven look at where things stand right now.
Where TD Bank Stock Trades Today
On the New York Stock Exchange, TD shares closed at about US$84.55 on December 2, 2025, a fresh 52‑week high. The stock has traded recently in a tight range in the low‑US$80s on daily volume around 2.5–3.9 million shares. [1]
Over the last year, TD has:
- Rallied about 54–55% year‑to‑date and over the past 12 months, according to Simply Wall St’s performance snapshot. [2]
- Climbed roughly 65% above its 52‑week low of US$51.25 set in December 2024. [3]
That makes TD one of the standout performers among Canada’s “Big Six” banks. By comparison, the group as a whole is up about 32% year‑to‑date, outpacing the S&P/TSX Composite’s roughly 27% gain, and now trades around 12.9× forward earnings, a 23% premium to its 10‑year average. [4]
Put simply: TD enters December 2025 priced for strength, not distress.
Snapshot: Fundamentals, Dividend and Valuation
Fresh data from StockAnalysis and other trackers give the following fundamental picture for TD’s NYSE‑listed shares: [5]
- Market capitalization: ~US$143–147 billion
- Trailing 12‑month EPS: ~US$8.44
- Trailing P/E ratio: ~9.9–10x
- Forward P/E: ~13.5x
- Dividend (TTM): ~US$2.99 per share
- Dividend yield: around 3.5–3.6% at current prices
- Beta: ~0.9 (less volatile than the broader market)
StockInvest’s dividend history shows quarterly US‑dollar payouts rising from US$0.72–0.78 over the past year, supporting TD’s long‑standing reputation as a dependable dividend name. [6]
Relative to global banks, a sub‑10x trailing P/E and mid‑3% yield look attractive on the surface, but need to be weighed against TD’s regulatory overhang and the fact that Canadian bank valuations overall are now well above long‑term averages. [7]
What’s New on December 3, 2025?
Several fresh items on and just before December 3 help define today’s narrative around TD Bank stock:
- Big institutional money adding to TD
A new MarketBeat “instant alert” details that 1832 Asset Management L.P. has increased its TD position to roughly 22.55 million shares, now worth about US$1.66 billion and representing around 1.31% of the bank. TD is the fund’s 4th‑largest holding, and overall about 52% of TD’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds. [8] - Valuation case: “Is it too late after a 54% surge?”
A new Simply Wall St note published today argues that, despite a 54.5% year‑to‑date move and 55.4% one‑year gain, TD still screens as undervalued by roughly 27% on their Excess Returns model, which produces an intrinsic value around C$161.93 per share versus the current Canadian share price. TD also trades on about 10× earnings, below the bank’s “fair” multiple estimate of 11.3x, reinforcing that undervaluation call. [9] - Fair value “roughly in line” with price in other models
A Yahoo Finance piece focusing on TD’s Indigenous banking expansion highlights consensus forecasts that imply a fair value near C$118.13, essentially matching where the TSX‑listed shares currently trade. [10] - Technical outlook remains bullish
StockInvest’s December 2 update rates TD a “Strong Buy” on technical grounds, citing: [11]- A weak but persistent rising trend
- Buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages
- Support around US$81.35
- An expected 8.9% price increase over the next three months, with a projected range of about US$89.6–93.3
- “Back to Winning” remains the strategic story
Articles from The Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance over the past couple of days revisit TD’s “Back to Winning” plan, noting that the strategy under new CEO Raymond Chun has coincided with a roughly 54% year‑to‑date rally and emphasizes cost cuts and AI‑driven efficiency gains as core levers. [12]
Together, these updates frame TD as a stock where:
- Price and momentum are strong,
- Technicals are positive,
- Valuation is hotly debated, and
- Strategic execution and regulatory clean‑up are front and center.
Q4 2025 Earnings: The Immediate Catalyst
Earnings date and expectations
TD Bank is scheduled to report Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, December 4, 2025, before the market opens, with the earnings call set for 6:30 a.m. ET. [13]
Recent data show:
- For the NYSE‑listed shares, Public.com cites a Q4 EPS consensus around US$1.45. [14]
- For the TSX‑listed shares, TipRanks shows a Q4 EPS forecast of about C$2.01. [15]
The difference largely reflects currency and reporting convention, but the message is the same: the market expects solid, not spectacular, earnings.
A year of consistent beats
TD’s 2025 earnings track record raises the bar for Q4: [16]
- Q1 2025: EPS US$1.44 vs US$1.38 expected
- Q2 2025: EPS US$1.37 vs US$1.24 expected
- Q3 2025: EPS US$1.60 vs US$1.46 expected
Three straight beats have helped rebuild confidence after the AML shock. Another beat in Q4 — especially if paired with upbeat 2026 guidance — could justify some of the rich sector valuations flagged by Reuters earlier this week. [17]
Street forecasts and guidance focus
Across platforms, the 12‑month outlook looks like this:
- U.S. listing (NYSE: TD):
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus price target around US$105, implying roughly +25% upside from current levels, with an overall “Buy” rating. [18]
- Canadian listing (TSX: TD):
- MarketBeat’s TSE:TD page shows an average target of about C$109.5 based on 10 analysts, with a range of C$89–125, which actually implies mid‑single‑digit downside from current levels around C$118. [19]
- Investing.com and related coverage cite an average target close to C$118.1, in line with the current price, and classify the stock as a “Buy” with a mix of Buy, Hold and a couple of Sell ratings. [20]
Add in the MarketBeat institutional‑ownership article — which also summarises five Buy and four Hold ratings for the US listing and an average target of US$93 — and you get a blended picture: [21]
TD is generally seen as a quality bank with moderate upside, but not a screaming bargain after this year’s rally.
For tomorrow’s call, investors will be laser‑focused on 2026 and 2027 guidance, especially around:
- Net interest margin trends
- Credit quality and loan‑loss provisions
- Fee‑based revenue growth in wealth and capital markets
- Capital return (dividends and buybacks) in the wake of regulatory penalties
The AML Overhang: A Historic Fine That Still Matters
TD’s biggest shadow in 2024–25 has been its massive US anti‑money‑laundering settlement.
- In October 2024, the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced a US$1.3 billion penalty against TD Bank, the largest such fine ever against a depository institution, and imposed a four‑year independent monitorship to oversee remediation. [22]
- The US Department of Justice, in a parallel action the same day, said TD Bank NA and its US holding company pleaded guilty to violations of the Bank Secrecy Act and money‑laundering conspiracy laws, agreeing to pay more than US$1.8 billion in penalties. [23]
- Legal and regulatory commentary pegs the total package of fines and remediation costs at around US$3.09 billion, along with an asset cap and stringent compliance obligations. [24]
In February 2025, Reuters reported that TD had appointed Guidepost Solutions as its compliance monitor for US operations. CFO Kelvin Tran described AML remediation as the bank’s “top priority”, noting that Guidepost will oversee a multi‑year work program funded by about US$500 million in dedicated compliance spending. Regulators alleged the bank had enabled over US$650 million in illicit transactions tied to drug trafficking and that employees had even accepted bribes from criminal organizations. [25]
The fallout has been severe at the leadership level:
- CEO Bharat Masrani stepped down earlier than initially planned.
- TD cut compensation for dozens of senior executives and refreshed its board to bring in more risk‑ and compliance‑focused directors. [26]
For investors, the key question is no longer whether TD can pay the fines — it already has — but how quickly it can:
- Satisfy regulators and exit the monitorship
- Rebuild its US reputation
- Avoid further restrictions or penalties
Until that cloud clears, many analysts see TD trading with an embedded “AML discount” relative to peers, even after this year’s big bounce.
New CEO Raymond Chun and the “Back to Winning” Strategy
Against that backdrop, Raymond Chun became Group President and CEO of TD Bank Group on February 1, 2025, accelerating a previously planned April handover. [27]
At TD’s September 29, 2025 Investor Day, Chun and his team laid out an aggressive plan to “get back to winning” by 2029, with several key elements: [28]
- Sharper financial targets
- Adjusted ROE: Targeting around 16% by fiscal 2029, up from roughly 13% expected in fiscal 2026.
- Adjusted EPS growth: Aiming for 7–10% compound annual growth over the medium term.
- Efficiency ratio: Reducing TD’s cost‑to‑income ratio from about 58% into the mid‑50s by 2029.
- C$2–2.5 billion in cost reductions
- At least C$2–2.5 billion in cost savings over several years, including about C$500 million tied directly to automation and artificial intelligence.
- A restructuring program already underway in 2025 is expected to deliver part of these savings.
- Capital deployment and buybacks
- With a strong capital base, TD plans to repurchase C$6–7 billion of its own shares in 2026, on top of maintaining a competitive dividend.
- The bank has also been exiting non‑core exposures, including a staged divestiture of its roughly 10% stake in Charles Schwab, to recycle capital into core businesses and buybacks. [29]
- Pivot to higher‑margin, fee‑based businesses
- Larger emphasis on wealth management, insurance and other fee‑driven segments, where returns and growth prospects may be stronger than in traditional spread lending. [30]
This is the strategic context behind the recent flurry of commentary from Motley Fool and others, which argue that TD’s efficiency drive and AI initiatives could materially support earnings and justify a premium valuation — if execution is strong. [31]
How Analysts See TD Bank Stock Right Now
Putting the various sources together:
- Rating:
- Most aggregators (StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, Investing.com) classify TD as a “Buy” or “Moderate Buy”, with a roughly even split between Buy and Hold recommendations and a small number of Sell ratings. [32]
- Price targets:
- NYSE (USD): Average 12‑month target around US$100–105, implying ~15–25% upside from ~US$84–85. [33]
- TSX (CAD):
- Risk flags:
- TipRanks’ AI‑based risk summary notes high leverage and declining free cash flow as ongoing concerns. [37]
- Reuters and others emphasize elevated sector valuations, macro uncertainty (housing, consumer credit) and exposure to opaque markets such as private credit and non‑bank financial institutions as points of caution heading into Q4 reporting. [38]
In other words, investors are divided: some models see TD as too cheap given its quality and growth plan; others see it as fully valued after the rally, especially once AML risk and macro headwinds are factored in.
Technical Picture: Trend Still Favors the Bulls
From a purely technical standpoint, StockInvest’s latest analysis (updated December 2) is constructive: [39]
- TD sits in the middle of a narrow, upward trend channel, with the trend expected to continue over the next three months.
- The stock has closed higher in 6 of the last 10 sessions and is up nearly 4% over the last two weeks.
- Support is clustered around US$81–82; a breakdown below that area would trigger sell signals in their system.
- Daily volatility has been modest (around 1.3%), and volume rose on the latest up move — a positive sign for trend followers.
- Their model upgrades TD to a “Strong Buy” candidate, projecting a high‑probability range between US$89.6 and US$93.3 over the next quarter.
For shorter‑term traders, that’s an argument that the path of least resistance may still be higher — at least unless Q4 earnings or guidance break the trend.
Key Risks and What Could Go Wrong
Despite the strong tape, TD investors have a non‑trivial risk list to monitor:
- Regulatory and AML risk
- The multi‑year monitorship and asset cap arising from TD’s US$3+ billion AML settlement mean continued scrutiny, potentially higher compliance costs, and limits on growth until regulators are satisfied. [40]
- Any further negative findings from the monitor could trigger additional penalties or restrictions.
- Macro and credit risk
- Reuters highlights concerns over Canadian consumer health and mortgage renewals, plus exposure to private credit and non‑bank financial institutions, as areas to watch across the Canadian banking sector. [41]
- A weaker‑than‑expected North American economy in 2026–27 could pressure loan growth and drive higher provisions for credit losses.
- Valuation risk after a big run
- With TD up more than 50% year‑to‑date and the sector as a whole trading above its 10‑year valuation averages, there is less margin for error. [42]
- Any earnings miss or cautious guidance on Thursday could trigger an outsized pullback.
- Execution risk on the “Back to Winning” plan
- TD is promising a lot: multi‑billion‑dollar cost reductions, a lower efficiency ratio, higher ROE, faster EPS growth, expanded fee businesses, and heavy AI adoption. [43]
- If these initiatives under‑deliver or take longer than expected, the stock’s premium narrative could unwind.
- Free cash flow and leverage
- TipRanks flags high leverage and weakening free cash flow as potential pressure points, especially in a higher‑for‑longer rate environment. [44]
The Bull Case: Why Some Investors Still See Upside
Supporters of TD Bank stock heading into Q4 earnings point to several positives:
- Scale and franchise quality: TD remains one of North America’s largest and most profitable banks, with leading positions in Canadian retail banking and a sizable US footprint. [45]
- Dividend strength: A ~3.5% dividend yield, a long history of dividend growth, and management’s stated commitment to capital returns, including planned share buybacks once regulatory clouds clear. [46]
- Earnings momentum: A pattern of earnings beats in 2025 and expectations for continued growth as cost cuts flow through and fee‑based businesses expand. [47]
- Strategic clarity under new leadership: CEO Raymond Chun’s investor‑day roadmap gives investors concrete targets for ROE, EPS growth, efficiency and capital deployment — something the market often rewards when progress is visible. [48]
- Attractive valuation vs. global peers: Even after the rally, TD’s trailing P/E around 10x and mid‑single‑digit yield look compelling relative to many US and European banks, especially if AML issues ultimately recede into the rear‑view mirror. [49]
For long‑term, income‑oriented investors, that combination can be appealing — provided they’re comfortable with the regulatory narrative and macro risk.
The Bear (or Cautious) Case
Skeptics and more cautious investors counter with their own arguments:
- AML risk is not “one and done.” Multi‑year monitorships can be messy, distracting and expensive. TD’s size and the scale of its US operations mean compliance failures could be punished harshly if they recur. [50]
- Sector valuations are stretched. If Canadian banks are indeed “fully valued,” as some analysts argue, there may be limited upside even if earnings are solid — and significant downside if results or guidance disappoint. [51]
- Free cash flow and leverage concerns. High leverage and pressured free cash flow limit flexibility precisely when TD needs to invest aggressively in technology, compliance and growth. [52]
- High expectations embedded in the price. After a 50%+ run, TD is no longer a contrarian recovery story. Bulls now have to be right about both earnings growth and successful execution on cost cuts and AI — any stumble could trigger multiple compression. [53]
What to Watch from Here
For readers tracking TD Bank stock into and beyond the Q4 print, the most important signposts are:
- Q4 2025 results and 2026–27 guidance
- Are EPS, revenue and credit metrics in line with or above expectations?
- Does management reaffirm medium‑term ROE, EPS and efficiency targets?
- Updates on AML remediation
- Any commentary on the monitor’s work, timeline and remaining milestones.
- Clarity on when the asset cap and other restrictions might be lifted.
- Cost‑cutting and AI progress
- Concrete numbers on realized and expected cost savings.
- Evidence that automation and AI are improving client experience rather than eroding it.
- Capital deployment and balance sheet
- Details on share buyback plans for 2026, beyond what’s been signalled so far. [54]
- Evolving leverage and liquidity metrics in light of rising regulatory expectations.
- Macro commentary
- Management’s view on Canadian consumer health, housing and US growth — all crucial for the next leg of TD’s story. [55]
Bottom Line
As of December 3, 2025, TD Bank stock is:
- Near record highs, up more than 50% year‑to‑date,
- Yielding ~3.5% with a history of dividend growth,
- Backed by a high‑profile turnaround and growth plan under a new CEO,
- But still living under the shadow of a record US AML settlement and multi‑year monitorship,
- And trading in a sector that many analysts already view as fully valued.
For some investors, that combination adds up to an attractive, income‑generating bank stock with room to run if execution stays on track. For others, especially those wary of regulatory and macro risks, it may look more like a hold than a buy at current levels.
Either way, tomorrow’s Q4 earnings and guidance are likely to be a major inflection point in how the market values TD Bank in 2026 and beyond.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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