NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 1:10 p.m. ET — Market closed
U.S. technology stocks head into the final three trading days of 2025 with a familiar tug-of-war: bullish momentum in the major indexes and AI-driven megacaps on one side, and renewed scrutiny of valuations and AI infrastructure spending on the other. With U.S. equity markets shut for the weekend, attention shifts to Sunday evening index futures and to the catalysts waiting in the holiday-thinned week ahead—most notably Federal Reserve meeting minutes and a handful of key economic releases.
Stock index futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 resume trading Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET, offering the first read on risk appetite before Monday’s opening bell. [1]
Where tech stocks left off: quiet tape, big levels
The most recent regular session—Friday, Dec. 26—delivered a classic post-holiday pattern: light volume, modest moves, and investors watching whether the market can extend the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window that runs through the first two trading days of January. [2]
All three major indexes finished fractionally lower, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at 23,593.10. [3] Even so, strategists pointed to an upward bias as the year winds down, framing Friday’s pause as the market “catching our breath” after a strong multi-day run. [4]
The bigger-picture backdrop remains supportive for the tech trade: the S&P 500 is hovering near record territory and has been within striking distance of 7,000, while the Nasdaq Composite is up about 22% year-to-date—an outcome that reinforces how central technology and AI themes have been to 2025’s equity performance. [5]
The key crosscurrent: rotation away from tech, not a tech collapse
A crucial nuance for investors heading into Monday is that “technology stocks” aren’t moving as one block.
In recent weeks, the S&P 500 tech sector has lagged other areas of the market—down more than 3% since early November—even as groups like financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps have shown better relative strength. Strategists have described this as rotation toward more moderate valuations and broader participation, rather than a definitive end to the multi-year tech-led bull run. [6]
That rotation matters for how investors approach “tech stocks” into year-end:
- If breadth continues to improve, the Nasdaq can rise even with select megacaps consolidating.
- If rate expectations shift abruptly, long-duration growth stocks could swing more sharply than the broader market.
- If AI spending fears re-accelerate, semiconductors and hyperscaler-adjacent names may see the biggest reactions.
Headlines driving tech sentiment in the last 24–48 hours
Nvidia stays at the center of the AI hardware narrative
Nvidia remains the bellwether for AI-related risk appetite. In Friday’s session, Nvidia shares gained after news tied to a licensing arrangement with AI chip startup Groq and an executive hire, keeping investors focused on competition—and collaboration—in AI compute. [7]
Over the weekend, the AI trade also attracted high-profile skepticism. The Wall Street Journal reported that Michael Burry has been positioning against AI leaders including Nvidia and Palantir via put options, arguing parts of the AI complex show bubble-like behavior reminiscent of prior tech manias. [8]
The takeaway for tech-stock investors: Nvidia isn’t just trading on quarterly fundamentals right now. It’s also trading as a proxy for broader confidence in AI monetization timelines, capex discipline, and the durability of hyperscaler demand.
Amazon: drone delivery plans in Italy halted
Amazon, a heavyweight in many “technology stocks” baskets and broad-market indexes, added a fresh corporate headline Sunday. Reuters reported that Amazon will no longer pursue its commercial drone delivery plans in Italy following a strategic review, citing the broader business and regulatory environment. [9]
While the direct financial impact may be modest near-term, the story is a reminder that moonshot-adjacent initiatives (logistics automation, robotics, drones) can still shape sentiment about long-run margin potential—especially when investors are already debating AI-era capital intensity.
IBM: a leadership-era milestone as investors revisit “old tech” vs “new tech”
Also Sunday, Reuters reported the death of Louis Gerstner, the former IBM CEO widely credited with reshaping the company in the 1990s by pivoting toward services and away from a breakup. [10]
In a market increasingly dominated by “new tech” narratives (AI infrastructure, cloud, chips), IBM’s spotlight moment underscores a parallel theme showing up in year-end positioning: some investors are selectively revisiting mature, cash-generative technology franchises while the highest-multiple AI names face heavier debate.
The macro catalyst tech investors are watching: Fed minutes and rate expectations
The week ahead is not packed with blockbuster earnings, but it does feature a macro event that can ripple through every corner of the tech sector: minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting.
According to Reuters, investors are focused on when and how much the Fed could cut rates next year after lowering its benchmark rate by a cumulative 75 basis points across its last three meetings of 2025 to 3.50%–3.75%. Reuters also noted the most recent decision was divided, and that the upcoming minutes could add color to the policy path investors are trying to price. [11]
Why this matters for technology stocks:
- Lower expected rates tend to support long-duration growth valuations (software, internet, high-multiple AI).
- A “higher for longer” tone can favor cyclicals and value while pressuring richly priced tech leaders.
- Rate-volatility in thin year-end liquidity can exaggerate moves in popular tech ETFs and megacaps.
What investors should know before Monday’s session
Because the U.S. stock market is closed on weekends and reopens Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET, tech investors effectively have two “opens” to watch: Sunday evening futures and Monday’s cash session. [12]
Here are the practical items to keep on the radar:
1) Expect thin liquidity—and potentially sharper swings
Reuters has highlighted that year-end portfolio adjustments can add volatility in holiday conditions, when lighter volumes can amplify price moves. [13]
That’s particularly relevant for tech stocks, where positioning can be crowded and momentum-driven into year-end.
2) Watch whether rotation continues (tech vs. the rest of the market)
Recent market action has shown investors branching into non-tech areas even as major indexes hover near highs—an important tell for 2026 leadership. [14]
If Monday opens with strength in financials/small caps alongside stable megacap tech, that supports the “broadening bull” narrative. If tech underperforms sharply again, it reintroduces the risk that the Nasdaq’s leadership is narrowing.
3) Mark the calendar for key U.S. data releases
Even in a quieter holiday week, economic prints can move Treasury yields—and tech valuations. MarketWatch’s U.S. economic calendar flags releases including Pending Home Sales (Monday) and other late-December housing and confidence data points through the week. [15]
4) Keep an eye on the AI debate: capex, competition, and conviction
This weekend’s mix of headlines captures the push-pull in AI-linked technology stocks:
- Bulls point to continued market momentum and the potential for rate relief as support for risk assets. [16]
- Bears are increasingly willing to challenge the AI trade at the margin—highlighted by Burry’s reported positioning against AI bellwethers. [17]
For investors, the actionable point isn’t to treat every headline as a trade signal—it’s to recognize that the market’s threshold for “proof” is rising. Into 2026, investors may reward companies that can translate AI capex into clearer revenue and margin pathways, while punishing those where spending looks open-ended.
Bottom line
With the market closed Sunday afternoon, technology stocks enter Monday with major indexes near historic highs—but with leadership broadening away from tech even as AI remains the defining narrative. Investors will be watching whether year-end seasonality supports another leg higher, while Fed minutes, light liquidity, and headline risk around AI bellwethers shape the tone for the Nasdaq’s final stretch of 2025. [18]
References
1. www.cmegroup.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.wsj.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.fidelity.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.wsj.com, 18. www.reuters.com
