SYDNEY, Dec. 23, 2025 — Telstra Group Limited stock is ending 2025 in a familiar but investor-relevant role: a “defensive” Australian blue chip that sits at the intersection of steady subscription cashflows, heavy regulation, and capital management. On 23 December 2025, the market focus is less about flashy product launches and more about three practical questions: how much value the ongoing buyback can add, whether satellite-to-mobile becomes a genuine differentiator, and how new spectrum and coverage obligations could reshape industry economics. [1]
Telstra share price today: where TLS is trading on 23 December 2025
Telstra (ASX:TLS) is quoted around the A$4.86 level on 23 December 2025, after a previous close around A$4.84, with the day’s trading range reported roughly A$4.84 to A$4.88. The widely reported 52-week range spans about A$3.84 to A$5.14, underscoring why TLS has been treated as a lower-volatility “core holding” for many Australian income and defensive portfolios this year. [2]
That defensive framing isn’t just market folklore. IG’s December note on ASX defensive shares points to Telstra’s scale and “subscription-based” mobile revenues as stabilisers, while also flagging the usual telecommunications wildcards: pricing pressure, regulation, and the risk that network or policy headlines move the stock even when earnings are steady. [3]
The buyback is still the headline: Telstra keeps shrinking the share count
The most concrete, market-moving datapoints in December have been Telstra’s on-market buyback disclosures, which arrive with the regularity of a metronome.
An ASX Appendix 3C buyback notice dated 12 December 2025 shows Telstra had repurchased 127,689,851 shares before the “previous day,” plus 2,401,863 shares on the previous day — taking the running total to about 130.1 million shares by that point in the program. The filing also reports cumulative consideration of roughly A$625.23 million (before the prior day) plus A$11.73 million (prior day), or about A$636.95 million in buybacks disclosed in that update. [4]
A few details matter for investors tracking buyback “quality”:
- Telstra’s notice discloses a highest price paid of A$5.14 (dated 12 Nov 2025) and a lowest price paid of A$4.78 (dated 8 Oct 2025), giving a transparent view of the program’s trading range so far. [5]
- The broker listed to execute the on-market buyback is Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited. [6]
- The buyback’s disclosed timeline shows a start date of 9 Sept 2025 and a proposed end date of 30 June 2026, with Telstra explicitly retaining the right to suspend or terminate the program. [7]
For equity investors, the logic is simple even when the execution is complex: fewer shares outstanding can lift earnings per share and support per-share dividends, all else equal. That “all else equal” clause is doing a lot of work — but in a mature, cash-generative business like Telstra, it’s precisely why the buyback sits so close to the centre of the TLS investment case right now. [8]
A December milestone: Telstra cancels 35.1 million shares
A separate ASX Appendix 3H notice dated 17 December 2025 reports the cessation (cancellation) of 35,090,748 ordinary shares, effective 16 December 2025, pursuant to an on-market buyback. The filing reports total consideration of A$172,395,719.80 for the securities that were progressively cancelled, and shows Telstra’s ordinary shares on issue at 11,254,937,273 following the cessation. [9]
That cancellation step matters because it converts “shares held for cancellation” into a permanently smaller share base — the mechanical pathway through which buybacks can translate into per-share uplift (again: assuming operating performance holds up). [10]
Satellite Messaging expands again: enterprise rollout and broader device support
The other notable December theme is Telstra’s push to extend connectivity “beyond coverage,” using satellite-to-mobile capability powered by Starlink Direct to Cell.
Enterprise customers get access from 11 December 2025
In a Telstra media release dated 11 December 2025, the company said Satellite Messaging is available for Telstra Enterprise customers to add to eligible Adaptive Mobility plans. Telstra describes the service as enabling compatible devices to send and receive messages via satellite when outdoors beyond mobile coverage — provided there is a clear line of sight to the sky — across most of mainland Australia and Tasmania. [11]
Telstra’s enterprise product information also stresses important limitations that investors (and customers) should not gloss over: performance can be intermittent, some messages may take minutes or longer, and the service is not an emergency solution (including that it cannot be used to contact Triple Zero). [12]
Consumer messaging: automatic connection, and “not for emergencies”
On Telstra’s satellite-to-mobile information page, the company says eligible customers don’t need to toggle anything on: compatible devices can automatically seek a satellite connection when beyond the mobile network and outdoors with line of sight. Telstra also states Satellite Messaging is included in Telstra Upfront Mobile Plans (no separate charge) and reiterates geographic exclusions such as the Australian Radio Quiet Zone and remote offshore territories and islands. [13]
From a stock perspective, the near-term financial impact is harder to model than a buyback (because pricing, uptake and churn effects take time). But strategically, satellite-to-mobile is increasingly entangled with regulation and public-safety expectations — which brings us to the next pressure point.
Spectrum renewal shock: ACMA’s A$7.3 billion estimate enters the chat
In mid-December, Australia’s spectrum debate resurfaced with real numbers attached.
Industry reporting says the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has lifted its estimate of what carriers would pay to renew key mobile spectrum licences to up to A$7.3 billion, higher than prior expectations in the A$5 billion to A$6.2 billion range — a revision linked to changes in methodology and expanded benchmarking after peer review. [14]
For Telstra shareholders, the market relevance is straightforward: spectrum costs are not just a regulatory footnote — they can become a meaningful draw on cash that might otherwise fund network investment, dividends, or buybacks.
iTnews reports Telstra responded by warning higher costs make it harder to invest in “the services customers count on,” describing the revised estimate as “a step in the wrong direction.” The same reporting notes broader industry concern that every dollar spent on spectrum is a dollar not spent on coverage and capacity. [15]
There is also a counter-view: consumer advocates have pushed back against spectrum being renewed too cheaply, arguing spectrum is a scarce public resource and should be priced in the public interest — a debate that has been live since earlier 2025 reporting and ACCAN position papers. [16]
Why it matters for TLS now: spectrum pricing outcomes won’t show up in Telstra’s daily share price the way a buyback notice can — until the market starts translating “billions more” into forecasts for free cashflow, dividends, and capital returns.
Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation: a regulatory tailwind… and a potential cost burden
Another policy development with direct relevance to Telstra’s long-term investment case is the Australian Government’s Telecommunications Legislation Amendment (Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation) Bill 2025.
The government’s published material states the proposed framework would, from 1 December 2027, require Optus, Telstra and TPG Telecom to provide “reasonable and equitable” access to baseline outdoor mobile coverage across Australia. It also explicitly notes that mobile operators are expected to leverage existing coverage as well as direct-to-device mobile enabled through Low Earth Orbit satellites. [17]
This is where Telstra’s satellite messaging narrative collides with regulation: satellite-to-mobile can be positioned as innovation, differentiation and resilience — but it can also become an expected baseline of service, with compliance obligations and associated costs.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the market expects for 2026
With TLS trading around A$4.86 on 23 December, the obvious question becomes: how much upside do analysts see?
Across major market-data aggregators, the consensus is not wildly euphoric — but it’s not bearish either:
- Investing.com reports an average 12‑month price target around A$4.94, with a high estimate of A$5.40 and a low estimate of A$4.20, and shows the stock rated overall as Buy (based on its displayed analyst mix). [18]
- MarketScreener similarly displays a consensus target around A$4.939, a high around A$5.40, and a low around A$4.20, with a mean consensus shown as Outperform (based on its displayed coverage set). [19]
- TradingView’s forecast page shows a TLS price target of A$5.05 with a maximum of A$5.40 and minimum of A$4.80, and also lists an expected next-quarter revenue figure of about A$11.90 billion. [20]
Put together, those snapshots imply that the “base case” for many analysts is modest upside from current levels, with valuation sensitivity clustered around a familiar set of variables: mobile pricing, cost control, capex discipline, and how much cash remains available after spectrum and regulatory demands.
Morningstar’s “fair value” bump: defensiveness + buybacks
One of the more cited valuation updates this month came via a Reuters item carried by TradingView. The note reported that Morningstar lifted its fair value estimate for Telstra — citing a lower weighted average cost of capital and what it described as stronger earnings resilience — and raised fair value by 8% to A$5.40. The Reuters item also explicitly linked Telstra’s buybacks to supporting EPS and dividends via a shrinking share base. [21]
Dividend outlook: the yield story is still doing work
Telstra’s appeal to many Australian investors is inseparable from dividends — and analysts continue to model dividend growth over the next several years.
FNArena reporting in 2025 highlighted broker expectations for rising payouts, including a Macquarie forecast set that lifts dividend expectations across multiple years (figures cited in cents per share). These are forecasts rather than commitments, but they help explain why Telstra often trades less like a “growth telco” and more like a hybrid of infrastructure-like cashflows + regulated utility-like debate + capital management. [22]
What could move Telstra stock next: the bull case and the bear case
Reasons investors stay constructive on Telstra (ASX:TLS):
Telstra’s defensive label is grounded in its scale, national footprint and recurring revenue base, and the market continues to treat buybacks as a tangible mechanism for per-share support. Product extensions like satellite messaging strengthen the “coverage leadership” narrative — and could become strategically valuable as regulators push the industry toward broader outdoor and emergency connectivity standards. [23]
Reasons investors stay cautious:
The December spectrum pricing shock is a reminder that telco economics can be rewritten by policy decisions. Higher spectrum costs, tougher coverage obligations, and persistent competitive pressure can all squeeze the same pool of cash that funds dividends, capex, and buybacks. Investors who like TLS for stability will be watching whether “defensive” starts to mean “defensively spending.” [24]
Bottom line for 23 December 2025
On 23 December 2025, Telstra stock sits in a classic late‑cycle telco setup: steady underlying demand, visible capital management via buybacks, and policy-driven uncertainty around spectrum and coverage obligations. Analyst targets cluster close to current levels, suggesting the market is pricing TLS as a high-quality defensive — but not granting it unlimited valuation room unless earnings resilience and cash returns remain intact through the next regulatory wave. [25]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.ig.com, 4. events.miraqle.com, 5. events.miraqle.com, 6. events.miraqle.com, 7. events.miraqle.com, 8. events.miraqle.com, 9. company-announcements.afr.com, 10. company-announcements.afr.com, 11. www.telstra.com.au, 12. www.telstra.com.au, 13. www.telstra.com.au, 14. www.itnews.com.au, 15. www.itnews.com.au, 16. www.abc.net.au, 17. www.infrastructure.gov.au, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. fnarena.com, 23. www.ig.com, 24. www.itnews.com.au, 25. www.investing.com
