December 15, 2025 (15.12.2025) — Shares of TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF) traded sharply lower Monday as investors weighed a familiar crypto-miner headwind (a softer Bitcoin tape) against a much newer narrative: TeraWulf’s rapid evolution into a high-performance computing (HPC) / AI data center infrastructure platform with long-duration, credit-enhanced leases.
As of early afternoon trading, WULF was around $12.9, down roughly 10% on the day after opening near $14, with intraday trading spanning roughly the low $12s to the mid $14s and volume in the tens of millions of shares. [1]
That pullback arrives after a blistering 2025 run: WULF shares were still up well over 100% year-to-date in many trackers before today’s drop, underscoring the stock’s reputation as a high-beta vehicle for both crypto sentiment and the AI infrastructure theme. [2]
Below is a roundup of the most relevant news, filings, forecasts, and analysis in circulation as of Dec. 15, 2025, and what they may imply for the next leg in WULF’s story.
Why TeraWulf stock is down today: Bitcoin weakness meets dilution optics
Commentary circulating on Dec. 15 points to two main drivers behind the selloff:
- Bitcoin’s pullback hit miners broadly. One widely shared market recap noted Bitcoin falling roughly 3%–4% intraday, which often pressures miner equities—especially the highest-volatility names. [3]
- Capital-structure headlines are colliding with momentum. Traders are still digesting TeraWulf’s mandatory conversion of its Series A convertible preferred stock into common equity, which increases the common share count and can create near-term selling pressure (or at least the fear of it). [4]
The key takeaway: on a day when crypto is softer, anything that looks like incremental dilution tends to get punished first and debated later—particularly in a stock with a large short base and a heavy retail/trader following.
The mandatory preferred conversion: what happened, when, and why it matters
On Nov. 25, 2025, TeraWulf announced it exercised its right to trigger the mandatory conversion of all outstanding shares of its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock. [5]
Timeline and mechanics (company disclosure):
- The conversion condition referenced common stock trading above a threshold on at least five trading days between Nov. 4 and Nov. 24, 2025. [6]
- Each preferred share would automatically convert into 141.9483 shares of common stock on Dec. 9, 2025 (the “Mandatory Conversion Date”). [7]
- Settlement was scheduled for Dec. 11, 2025. [8]
- The company’s 8‑K materials indicated the conversion would create approximately 1.215 million new common shares, moving the outstanding common count from about ~419 million to about ~420 million (assuming no other issuance in the window). [9]
- Preferred dividends would stop accruing after the mandatory conversion date. [10]
Management framed the move as a cleanup step. CFO Patrick Fleury called it a milestone to “simplify” the capital structure and improve transparency for investors. [11]
Why the market cares anyway: even if the incremental share issuance is relatively modest compared with the existing share base, conversions can act like a short-term supply event—especially when a stock is already crowded and volatile.
Insider filings: Form 4s confirm conversion activity (and one director buy)
A cluster of Form 4 filings posted in mid-December provides granular proof that insiders’ preferred holdings converted into common shares on Dec. 9 (reported Dec. 11):
- Michael C. Bucella (Director) reported conversion of 250 preferred shares into 35,487 common shares and also disclosed a prior purchase of 4,178 common shares on Nov. 13, 2025 at a weighted average around $12.01. [12]
- Steven T. Pincus (Director) reported conversion of 50 preferred shares into 7,097 common shares. [13]
- Kerri M. Langlais (Chief Strategy Officer) reported conversion activity tied to the mandatory conversion and disclosed a sizable indirect holding through a family trust. [14]
These filings don’t “predict” the stock—but they do confirm that the conversion wasn’t theoretical; it was implemented, and insiders updated ownership records accordingly.
Institutional ownership headlines: Jane Street and Citadel 13G filings
Two large trading firms also appeared in Schedule 13G filings (passive beneficial ownership reports), which can draw attention in a high-volume name like WULF:
- A Jane Street 13G (event date Nov. 4, 2025) reported 20,739,133 shares, about 5.1% of the class (per the filing’s calculation). [15]
- A Citadel 13G (event date Dec. 1, 2025) reported 22,686,911 shares, about 5.4% of the class (per the filing’s calculation). [16]
Important nuance: positions reported by large market-making/trading organizations can reflect a mix of strategies (including hedged exposures) and may change rapidly. Still, the filings reinforce how central WULF has become to the “AI power + crypto sensitivity” trading ecosystem.
The bull case behind WULF: TeraWulf’s AI/HPC pivot and Google-backed counterparties
The reason WULF has attracted so much attention in 2025 isn’t just Bitcoin. It’s the company’s aggressive buildout of AI-optimized data center capacity and long-duration leases tied to Fluidstack—with Google providing credit support in multiple arrangements.
Lake Mariner (New York): 10-year Fluidstack leases, Google credit enhancement
In August, TeraWulf announced two 10-year HPC colocation agreements with Fluidstack, targeting delivery of 200+ MW of critical IT load at the Lake Mariner campus. The company said the agreements represented ~$3.7 billion in contracted revenue over the initial terms, potentially rising to ~$8.7 billion with extension options. [17]
The same announcement stated:
- Google backstopped $1.8 billion of Fluidstack obligations to support project debt financing, and
- Google would receive warrants for ~41 million shares, equating to about an ~8% pro forma stake at the time. [18]
A follow-on expansion in mid-August added CB‑5, a new building providing an additional 160 MW of critical IT load, with operations expected in the second half of 2026. That update said total contracted capacity at Lake Mariner rose to 360+ MW of critical IT load, representing $6.7 billion in contracted revenue (with potential to reach $16 billion with extensions), and that Google’s total backstop increased to ~$3.2 billion, with pro forma ownership rising to ~14%. [19]
Abernathy (Texas): a 25-year JV structure with a $9.5B contract figure
In late October, TeraWulf announced a new 168 MW AI compute joint venture with Fluidstack featuring a 25-year lease the company said represents ~$9.5 billion in contracted revenue to the JV. It also stated Google backs ~$1.3 billion of lease obligations to support project debt. [20]
In TeraWulf’s Q3 update, the company described Abernathy as initially designed for 240 MW with potential expansion to 600 MW, and said it holds up to a 51% controlling interest in the venture. [21]
What Q3 2025 results said about scale, cash, and contract backlog
TeraWulf’s third-quarter 2025 results (reported Nov. 10, 2025) helped quantify the pivot:
- Revenue of $50.6 million in Q3, including $7.2 million in initial HPC lease revenue (a key “proof-of-transition” metric). [22]
- Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $712.8 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. [23]
- As of Sept. 30: 245 MW of Bitcoin mining capacity energized and 22.5 MW of HPC capacity energized at Lake Mariner. [24]
- The company said it executed 520+ MW of long-term HPC leases across customers, including Core42 and Fluidstack, and described the Fluidstack leases as Google credit-enhanced and deliverable in phases through 2026. [25]
- Management reaffirmed a target of 250–500 MW of new HPC lease signings annually. [26]
Investors can debate the valuation, but the strategic intent is clear: TeraWulf is trying to become an infrastructure-style cash-flow story rather than a pure Bitcoin miner.
Financing the buildout: big numbers, real leverage, and real covenants
Scaling data centers isn’t cheap, and TeraWulf has leaned heavily on both convertible debt and secured debt:
- The company closed a $1.025 billion offering of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032, with net proceeds around $999.7 million, intended to fund part of the Abernathy campus buildout and general corporate purposes. [27]
- A Form 8‑K dated Oct. 23, 2025 described 7.750% senior secured notes that mature Oct. 15, 2030, with interest payable semiannually beginning April 15, 2026, and included covenant restrictions typical of high-yield project-style debt. [28]
Barron’s previously highlighted the sheer scale of this financing push—reporting on TeraWulf’s plan to raise $3.2 billion in senior secured notes for the Lake Mariner project and noting credit agencies were evaluating the debt in high-yield territory. [29]
This is the trade-off at the heart of the WULF story: long-duration contracted revenue potential on one side, significant capital intensity and leverage on the other.
WULF stock forecast and analyst outlook: targets vary widely by source
On Dec. 15, the “forecast” landscape around WULF is best described as optimistic but scattered, depending on which analyst dataset you consult.
- MarketBeat lists an average 12-month price target around $18.42 (with a wide range: $4 low to $24 high) and describes the Street view as generally constructive. [30]
- Benzinga shows a much lower consensus target around $13.22, while noting a $24 high target (Rosenblatt, Nov. 11, 2025). [31]
- StockAnalysis aggregates an average target near $16.71 and tags the consensus as “Strong Buy,” with the caveat that the stock’s volatility can quickly overwhelm any 12-month point estimate. [32]
- A widely circulated Investing.com update reported Roth/MKM raising its target to $26 (from $24) and maintaining a Buy rating, citing an expanding site pipeline and continued AI infrastructure optionality. [33]
- Earlier 2025 coverage tied to the Google/Fluidstack deal showed more moderate targets being raised (e.g., $14 targets from Cantor Fitzgerald and B. Riley per one report), while other coverage initiated higher. [34]
How to interpret this: the target dispersion is a signal in itself. Analysts and market commentators are effectively arguing over what TeraWulf “is”—a crypto miner with AI upside, or an AI infrastructure platform with residual crypto exposure.
Short interest and volatility: WULF remains a crowded battlefield
Short interest remains a core part of the WULF trading setup.
One widely used tracker reported short interest around 102.13 million shares, representing about 29.9% of the company’s publicly available shares short, with ~2.2 days to cover based on recent average volume. [35]
Borrow cost data points fluctuate daily, but snapshots in circulation around Dec. 15 showed relatively low quoted borrow fees (well under 1%)—which can matter because expensive borrow can choke off shorting, while cheap borrow can keep pressure on. [36]
The practical implication for investors: WULF can move violently in both directions, because you have a mix of momentum traders, short sellers, crypto-sensitive flows, and long-term AI infrastructure investors all arguing in the same ticker.
A key risk resurfacing in December: local zoning and permitting friction at Cayuga (Lansing, NY)
While Wall Street focuses on megawatts and financing, local politics can still slow projects down.
TeraWulf has touted an 80-year lease at its Cayuga site in Lansing, New York, positioning it as part of a longer-term HPC expansion path. [37]
But several local and regional reports in late 2025 describe community and governance friction around the proposed Cayuga-area data center project, including:
- A zoning board public hearing scheduled for Dec. 16, 2025, tied to appeals and pushback around the proposal. [38]
- Reports of escalating tensions (including threatened legal action claims) connected to alleged process issues and debate over project impacts. [39]
- Coverage noting local efforts around development moratorium proposals and their eventual withdrawal—an illustration of how politically live the project remains. [40]
For WULF’s longer-dated growth narrative (2027+), permitting and local acceptance may be just as important as capital markets access.
What to watch next for TeraWulf stock after Dec. 15, 2025
For readers tracking WULF into year-end and early 2026, the next catalysts cluster into five buckets:
1) Post-conversion supply and sentiment
Now that the mandatory conversion has settled, investors will watch whether the stock stabilizes as the “dilution headline” fades—or whether converted holders sell into liquidity. [41]
2) Delivery milestones at Lake Mariner and Abernathy
The core valuation debate hinges on whether contracted MW translates into energized, revenue-producing capacity on schedule through 2026. [42]
3) Additional lease signings
Management reiterated a target of 250–500 MW of new contracted capacity annually. Any incremental signing or credit-enhanced structure can reset expectations. [43]
4) Financing terms and leverage tolerance
TeraWulf’s expansion is deeply tied to debt markets, including secured notes with meaningful covenants and long-dated convertibles. [44]
5) Local permitting for future sites
The Cayuga/Lansing process will remain a risk monitor item for investors underwriting the “next wave” after 2026. [45]
Bottom line
TeraWulf’s Dec. 15 slide is a reminder that WULF still trades like a crypto-adjacent momentum stock—even as the company tries to re-rate into a longer-duration AI/HPC infrastructure narrative with Google-backed credit enhancement and multi-year leases.
In the near term, the market is juggling:
- Bitcoin-driven volatility,
- capital structure cleanup (and dilution optics),
- large short interest, and
- execution risk on multi-billion-dollar, multi-site buildouts.
Longer term, the debate is simpler (and harder): can TeraWulf consistently convert megawatts and contracts into durable, infrastructure-like cash flows—fast enough to justify the leverage and valuation?
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.fool.com, 3. www.fool.com, 4. www.fool.com, 5. investors.terawulf.com, 6. investors.terawulf.com, 7. investors.terawulf.com, 8. investors.terawulf.com, 9. investors.terawulf.com, 10. investors.terawulf.com, 11. investors.terawulf.com, 12. investors.terawulf.com, 13. investors.terawulf.com, 14. investors.terawulf.com, 15. investors.terawulf.com, 16. investors.terawulf.com, 17. investors.terawulf.com, 18. investors.terawulf.com, 19. investors.terawulf.com, 20. investors.terawulf.com, 21. investors.terawulf.com, 22. investors.terawulf.com, 23. investors.terawulf.com, 24. investors.terawulf.com, 25. investors.terawulf.com, 26. investors.terawulf.com, 27. investors.terawulf.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.investors.com, 35. www.benzinga.com, 36. finance.yahoo.com, 37. investors.terawulf.com, 38. tompkinsweekly.com, 39. www.cornellsun.com, 40. www.wskg.org, 41. investors.terawulf.com, 42. investors.terawulf.com, 43. investors.terawulf.com, 44. www.sec.gov, 45. tompkinsweekly.com
