Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) Stock Today (Dec. 18, 2025): Why Shares Are Sliding After the Rally, and What Analysts Forecast Next

December 18, 2025 — Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: TERN) is pulling back in Thursday trading after one of the most explosive biotech runs of the year, with investors digesting a fresh wave of clinical-trial enthusiasm, a major equity raise, and a fast-updating stack of Wall Street price targets.

As of the latest available trading update on Dec. 18, 2025, TERN stock was around $39.62, after opening near $42.55 and trading in a $39.62–$42.59 intraday range, with volume above 2.0 million shares.

That dip doesn’t erase the bigger story: Terns has already repriced dramatically higher in recent weeks—driven by attention around TERN-701, the company’s lead oncology program in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), and by the financing steps needed to fund what could become a much larger, much more expensive development plan.

What’s happening with TERN stock on Dec. 18, 2025?

Thursday’s move looks like a classic “cooldown” session after a momentum-heavy stretch. MarketBeat described Terns as down mid-day with trading volume below its typical average—often a sign that early buyers are taking profits while new buyers become more selective at higher levels. ^[1]

A look at recent price action shows just how violent the repricing has been. In late October, shares were still trading in single digits; by early-to-mid December, the stock printed closes in the 40s and briefly touched the upper-40s intraday before retreating. ^[2]

In other words: a 5–6% down day reads differently when it follows a move measured in multiples.

The catalyst behind the surge: TERN-701 data at ASH 2025

The fundamental trigger for the rally has been investor excitement around TERN-701, an investigational allosteric BCR::ABL1 inhibitor being developed for CML—a disease area where incremental efficacy and tolerability improvements can translate into meaningful commercial opportunity.

In a Dec. 8, 2025 SEC filing (Form 8‑K), Terns disclosed updated, expanded results from its ongoing Phase 1 CARDINAL trial being presented at the 67th American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting. Among 38 efficacy-evaluable patients, the company reported an overall (cumulative) major molecular response (MMR) rate of 74% (28/38) by 24 weeks, including patients achieving new MMR and those maintaining baseline MMR. The filing also outlined subgroup response rates, a deep molecular response (DMR) achievement rate by 24 weeks of 29% (10/34), and a safety profile where most treatment-emergent adverse events were low grade. ^[3]

The same filing also points to the next chess moves. Terns said it selected 320 mg and 500 mg once daily as recommended Phase 2 doses for expansion and outlined plans to advance the program through additional cohorts and regulatory discussions intended to shape pivotal studies. ^[4]

Why investors care about “allosteric” and the Scemblix comparison

TERN-701 is often discussed in the same breath as Novartis’ Scemblix (asciminib), because both target CML through an allosteric mechanism (binding in a way that changes protein shape rather than simply blocking the “active site”). BioPharma Dive noted that early results presented at ASH suggest Terns’ drug “may eventually be competitive” with established options, while also stressing that cross-trial comparisons can be misleading and the drugs haven’t been tested head-to-head. ^[5]

Specialty pharma analysts have also framed this as a “new class arms race” within CML—where being meaningfully better (or better tolerated) could reshape prescribing over time, especially if the data continue to hold up in broader, later-line, and eventually earlier-line settings. ^[6]

The other big headline: the $650M offering that became $747.5M

Big clinical ambition costs big money. Terns didn’t just ride the rally—it monetized it.

The structure

Terns filed a prospectus supplement for an underwritten public offering of 16,250,000 shares at $40.00 per share (about $650 million total at the offering price), while granting underwriters the option to purchase up to 2,437,500 additional shares. ^[7]

In a separate SEC filing dated Dec. 9, 2025 (Form 8‑K), Terns said the underwriters exercised the option in full on Dec. 10 and estimated net proceeds of approximately $705.8 million after discounts/expenses (including the option shares). Crucially, the company added a runway statement: based on current plans, it estimated existing cash plus proceeds should fund operations at least into 2031. ^[8]

The close

On Dec. 11, 2025, Terns announced the offering closed at 18,687,500 shares sold (including the full option) at $40.00 per share. ^[9]

What this means for shareholders

This is the tradeoff in plain English:

Positive: a very large cash infusion can reduce near-term financing risk and support faster clinical execution (including manufacturing, trial expansion, and pre-commercial planning). ^[10]
Negative: selling new shares is dilutive, and offerings often create a gravity well for the stock price—especially after a sharp run—because new supply hits the market and some investors de-risk.

Thursday’s pullback fits that psychology neatly: “great story, now show me the next dataset.”

Analyst forecasts and price targets for TERN stock

After ASH, the analyst machine moved quickly.

MarketBeat’s aggregation shows a broadly bullish stance: “Moderate Buy” consensus and a $55.56 average 12‑month price target, with published targets ranging from $35 to $70. ^[11]

StockAnalysis, using a different aggregation set and methodology, also shows a bullish consensus (“Strong Buy”) but a different average target ($48.6) alongside a median target of $56 and a high target of $60 (again highlighting that “consensus” depends heavily on which analysts are included and how recently targets were updated). ^[12]

TradingView likewise lists a $50.50 price target with a $70 max and $17 min estimate. ^[13]

Recent target raises and upgrades cited across coverage

Multiple outlets compiling analyst actions point to significant upward revisions clustered around the ASH readout window, including (among others) target increases at firms such as Citizens, Truist, Oppenheimer, BMO, and Barclays. ^[14]

MarketBeat’s Dec. 18 coverage also cited additional examples of raised targets and reiterated that most tracked analysts remained on the bullish side. ^[15]

And a separate Investing.com roundup tied those target hikes directly to the CARDINAL dataset and the financing, noting target lifts from firms such as Citizens, Jefferies, and Mizuho in the wake of the ASH presentation and offering news flow. ^[16]

Important reality check: price targets in clinical-stage biotech are less like “next quarter’s sales forecast” and more like “a probabilistic bet on clinical and regulatory outcomes.” They can change violently on new safety signals, efficacy durability data, dosing decisions, FDA feedback, competitive trial updates, or simply risk appetite in biotech.

What to watch next: the 2026 roadmap (and why cash matters)

Terns’ latest SEC disclosures sketch out an aggressive development arc for TERN‑701, including further dose-expansion work and preparation for pivotal studies. ^[17]

The offering-related 8‑K is also notable for that runway comment—funding at least into 2031 based on current plans—because it signals the company believes it can push through multiple major clinical milestones without immediately returning to the market. ^[18]

From an investor’s “catalyst calendar” perspective, the market will likely focus on:

Durability: do molecular responses hold up with longer follow-up?
Breadth: do strong responses persist across harder-to-treat subgroups?
Safety/tolerability: do adverse events stay manageable as patient counts rise?
Regulatory clarity: what does the FDA want to see for pivotal trial design and endpoints?
Competitive positioning: how does the emerging dataset compare—carefully, and ideally eventually head-to-head or in truly comparable populations—against other next-gen CML agents?

A quick risk check: why TERN stock is still “high beta,” even on good news

Terns is still a clinical-stage company. That means valuation is driven less by current revenue (which is minimal/nonexistent for pipeline-stage biotechs) and more by the perceived probability of future clinical and commercial success.

A few market signals underline the volatility:

Short interest exists and remains meaningful. StockAnalysis, for example, lists recent short interest around 8.78 million shares and provides days-to-cover estimates in the low single digits—enough to amplify swings in either direction when news hits. ^[19]
The stock has been moving on narrative and catalysts, which can reverse quickly if new data disappoint or if broader biotech risk appetite fades.

Bottom line for Dec. 18, 2025

TERN stock is down today, but the pullback is happening in the context of a massive, catalyst-driven repricing. The market is balancing three forces at once:

Excitement about TERN‑701’s early CML efficacy and tolerability signals, amplified by ASH 2025 attention. ^[20]
Dilution and positioning effects from a blockbuster equity raise—$650M priced at $40 that ultimately closed as a $747.5M deal with the full option exercised. ^[21]
Optimistic—but varied—analyst forecasts, with many targets now clustering well above today’s price, while still hinging on future clinical execution.

For readers following Terns Pharmaceuticals stock on Google News and Discover: the next phase of this story won’t be written by price action alone. It will be written by the next layers of CARDINAL data, the clarity of the 2026 pivotal strategy, and whether the “best-in-class” narrative survives contact with larger numbers and longer follow-up.

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