NEW YORK, May 11, 2026, 12:02 EDT
Tesla stock climbed Monday, despite new figures from China showing the EV maker’s retail sales in the country dropped 9.66% in April, totaling 25,956 vehicles. Meanwhile, exports from Tesla’s Shanghai plant surged 80.04% to 53,522 vehicles. That divergence sliced through last week’s broad rebound in China-made sales, shifting attention to Tesla’s evolving demand landscape.
Timing plays a role here. China’s domestic passenger-car sales dropped again in April—seventh consecutive monthly decline—falling 21.6% year-on-year, data from the China Passenger Car Association show. “Key bottleneck,” secretary-general Cui Dongshu said, pointing to sluggish demand for lower-priced models as the main drag on recovery. Reuters
Tesla shares climbed roughly 2.8% to $440.18 late this morning in New York, putting the company’s market cap around $1.56 trillion. The rally has less to do with immediate vehicle sales and more to do with investor wagers on software, AI, and robotics.
Tesla’s China numbers painted a mixed picture. Retail sales here count only vehicles sold within China, not exports. April’s stats showed Tesla holding roughly a 3.1% share of the local new-energy vehicle market—that covers battery EVs and plug-in hybrids. BYD moved 182,025 of these vehicles, Xiaomi hit 36,702, both surpassing Tesla’s 25,956 tally.
That mismatch explains why shares seemed to move strangely. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter maintained an Overweight on Tesla, with his $500 target unchanged. Potter’s model, spanning 17 product lines, puts the stock at about $400—even before factoring in any value for Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative. “At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” he noted. Investing.com
The bet remains far from simple. Back in April, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja told investors the company was now eyeing approval for Full Self-Driving in China sometime in the third quarter, according to Reuters—pushed back from its original first-quarter target. Full Self-Driving, Tesla’s advanced driver-assist system, still requires both regulatory clearance and human supervision wherever mandated.
Policy’s in the spotlight too. Bloomberg News says the White House has asked Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook to join President Donald Trump on a trip to China this week, according to a White House official. Tesla hasn’t responded yet to Reuters’ request for comment.
The bear scenario isn’t tough to picture. Continued weakness in Chinese retail demand could leave margins exposed, even if exports hold up—BYD and upstart brands aren’t letting up on price or features. That premium valuation on Tesla? It doesn’t give much cover for any stumbles on FSD, robotaxis, or Optimus deadlines.
Tesla faces yet another safety recall, this time pulling 173 Cybertrucks from the 2024-2026 model years equipped with 18-inch steel wheels—an issue with rotor cracking could let a wheel stud break free from the hub. On top of that, more than 200,000 other Tesla vehicles are being recalled due to a problem with rearview-camera software. The company says it hasn’t seen any crashes, injuries, or fatalities connected to either recall.
Investors aren’t just pegging Tesla as a car company with a sluggish month in China. April sales numbers leave the key issue front and center: can exports and eventual software income balance out weaker demand at home in the world’s biggest auto market?
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