Updated: December 4, 2025
Summary
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back in the spotlight on December 4, 2025. A new robotics push from Washington, stronger recent data out of China and a record third quarter have pushed TSLA higher again this week — even as its core EV business faces slowing growth, rising competition and mounting questions about valuation.
This article pulls together today’s key Tesla stock news, analyst forecasts and market analysis to give you a clear, up‑to‑date view of where TSLA stands and what could come next.
Important: This is general information and commentary, not financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla stock is trading around the mid‑$450s on December 4, 2025, modestly higher on the day and following a roughly 4% jump on Wednesday, leaving the company valued near $1.5 trillion with a trailing P/E close to 300x. [1]
- This week’s rally is driven by three big catalysts:
- Reports of a U.S. government robotics push that could benefit Tesla’s Optimus humanoid program. [2]
- Robust recent numbers from China, including about 86,700 vehicles delivered from Tesla’s Shanghai plant in the latest month, up ~41% from October. [3]
- A confirmed $240.3 million IRS grant under the Section 48C tax credit program to support advanced energy projects, likely tied to U.S. battery manufacturing. [4]
- Fundamentals are mixed: 2025 has seen record Q3 deliveries (497,099 vehicles) and record energy‑storage deployments, but global vehicle deliveries are still expected to fall about 7% for the full year after declines in Q1 and Q2 and a weak 2024. [5]
- Wall Street is divided. MarketBeat’s survey of 44 brokerages shows a consensus “Hold” rating with an average 12‑month price target near $399, below today’s price. [6]
StockAnalysis, using 27 analysts, shows a “Buy” consensus but an average target around $384, also implying double‑digit downside from current levels. [7] - Longer‑term forecasts range from deeply skeptical to wildly bullish. 24/7 Wall St.’s model sees no upside for 2025 (fair value around $352) but potential for the stock to more than double by 2030 if revenue and earnings compound as projected. [8]
- Options traders are leaning bullish in the short term, with heavy call interest at strikes between $450 and $480, even as some investors hedge with long‑dated deep out‑of‑the‑money puts amid concerns that Tesla’s valuation (around 16x sales and nearly 300x earnings) is stretched. [9]
Tesla Stock Price Today: TSLA’s December 4 Move in Context
As of late trading on December 4, 2025, Tesla stock is changing hands at about $451 per share, with intraday trading roughly between $446 and $455.
Recent datapoints from MarketBeat and other market trackers show: [10]
- Market cap: ~$1.49 trillion
- 52‑week range: roughly $214 – $489
- 50‑day moving average: around $434
- 200‑day moving average: about $371
- Trailing P/E ratio: near 295–300x earnings
- Beta: ~1.9, meaning Tesla stock is significantly more volatile than the broader market
After sliding into the high‑$380s in November, TSLA has bounced strongly. MarketBeat notes the shares rebounded roughly 12% from that late‑month low and recently changed hands in the low‑$450s. [11]
24/7 Wall St. calculates that as of this week: [12]
- Tesla stock is about 4.8% higher than a week ago
- ~29.8% higher than six months ago
- ~27.1% higher than a year ago, outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the same period
So while day‑to‑day headlines focus on “sales skids” and slowing EV demand, the stock price itself has quietly staged a powerful medium‑term recovery.
Why Tesla Stock Is Rallying: Robots, Tax Credits and China
1. Washington’s Robotics Push
A big part of this week’s narrative is policy support for robotics and automation in the U.S.
- Reports from IndexBox and TipRanks highlight that the administration is considering an executive order in 2026 to accelerate the domestic robotics industry, with Commerce officials meeting leading robotics CEOs. [13]
- Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is front and center in this story. Investors increasingly view Tesla not only as an EV maker but as a robotics and AI platform, and any sign of favorable policy is treated as a potential tailwind. [14]
IndexBox notes that Tesla shares recently jumped about 4.1% in afternoon trading after news of the robotics push circulated, before settling still roughly 4% higher on the day. [15]
2. $240 Million in Non‑Dilutive U.S. Tax Credits
The second key driver is hard cash from the U.S. government.
- Tesla has been awarded a $240.3 million grant under Section 48C, a program that supports advanced energy projects. [16]
- The grant is non‑dilutive, meaning it doesn’t add new shares or dilute existing shareholders. It’s likely directed at domestic battery cell manufacturing or critical materials processing, strengthening Tesla’s balance sheet and its competitive position. [17]
For equity analysts, a grant of this size is often equated to tens of thousands of vehicle sales worth of after‑tax profit, but without the associated production costs or demand risk. [18]
3. Stronger Recent Data out of China
China, Tesla’s key growth market, has been a sore spot throughout 2025 — but recent data look better:
- IndexBox reports that Tesla’s Shanghai factory delivered about 86,700 vehicles in the most recent month, up 41% from October. [19]
- TipRanks highlights that wholesale sales from China climbed around 10% year‑over‑year, helping fuel this week’s rally. [20]
Combined with record Q3 deliveries (more on that below), this has given bulls fresh ammunition that Tesla can still grow volumes in its largest overseas manufacturing base, even as pricing pressure remains intense.
A Tough Year for Tesla’s Core EV Business
Despite this week’s enthusiasm, Tesla’s core car business is under real pressure. Several data points from Reuters, Electrek, Tesla’s own filings and third‑party analysis paint a more sobering picture:
1. Deliveries: Record Q3, But a Down Year Overall
From Tesla’s 2025 production and delivery reports: [21]
- Q1 2025:
- Production: ~362,600 vehicles
- Deliveries: ~336,700
- Q2 2025:
- Production: ~410,200
- Deliveries: ~384,100
- Q3 2025:
- Production: ~447,500
- Deliveries: 497,099 (a record)
That adds up to roughly 1.22 million vehicles delivered in the first three quarters of 2025.
Q3’s blowout was heavily influenced by the September 30 expiration of a U.S. federal EV tax credit, which pulled demand forward as buyers rushed to lock in the $7,500 incentive. [22]
Despite that record quarter, Visible Alpha data cited by Reuters suggest Tesla’s total global deliveries in 2025 are still on track to fall about 7%, after a 1% drop in 2024 — the first time in years that Tesla has seen consecutive years of declining volume. [23]
2. Tesla Gives Up on EV Growth Guidance
An influential Electrek analysis notes that after years of promising rapid growth, Tesla effectively abandoned explicit vehicle growth guidance in July 2025: [24]
- Tesla had initially projected a return to delivery growth in 2025, after stalled growth in 2024.
- But after a 13% year‑over‑year drop in Q1 deliveries and a 13.5% drop in Q2, the company stopped providing specific volume targets, instead pointing vaguely to “prudent investments” and macro uncertainty. [25]
Critics argue this shift reflects demand problems and brand damage rather than just macro factors, especially as EV adoption continues to grow globally while Tesla’s share slips in key regions. [26]
3. Europe and U.S. Headwinds
Reuters and CarbonCredits highlight sharp regional challenges: [27]
- Europe:
- Tesla’s sales fell 48.5% across Europe in October versus the same month in 2024, even as overall EV sales in the region rose 26%.
- CarbonCredits notes November registrations fell 58% in France and 49% in Denmark, with the Model Y’s Danish sales down 74%, underscoring intense competition from cheaper EVs and hybrids.
- U.S.:
Analysts quoted by Reuters warn that there is no quick fix for Tesla’s European woes, with a relatively narrow model lineup competing against an expanding array of EVs — many priced below Tesla’s offerings — from both legacy automakers and aggressive Chinese entrants. [30]
Wall Street Forecasts: Targets, Ratings and Growth Expectations
1. Near‑Term Analyst Consensus
Different data aggregators show slightly different snapshots, but the message is broadly consistent:
- MarketBeat (44 brokerages):
- Consensus rating: “Hold”
- Breakdown: 9 Sell, 13 Hold, 21 Buy, 1 Strong Buy
- Average 12‑month price target: ~$398.92 — below today’s price in the mid‑$450s. [31]
- StockAnalysis (27 analysts):
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average price target: $383.96
- Target range: $19 to $600
- The average target implies about 15% downside from the ~$453 level cited at today’s close on that platform. [32]
So, even though many individual analysts remain bullish, the aggregated 12‑month price targets generally sit below the current share price.
Some notable calls cited in recent data: [33]
- Wedbush (Daniel Ives): repeatedly reaffirmed a $600 price target and “Buy” rating, banking on robotaxis and AI as the next growth wave.
- Stifel: “Strong Buy” with a target now around $508 after raising its estimate in November.
- B of A Securities: “Hold”, but lifted its target from $341 to $471, acknowledging the robotics and AI optionality.
Meanwhile, famed “Big Short” investor Michael Burry has called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued” and publicly criticized CEO Elon Musk’s new $1 trillion compensation package, reinforcing the bear case that today’s price already reflects overly optimistic future expectations. [34]
2. Earnings and Revenue Outlook
Forecast data compiled by StockAnalysis from Wall Street estimates show: [35]
- Revenue:
- 2024 actual: ~$97.69B
- 2025 forecast: ~$97.13B (a 0.6% decline year‑over‑year)
- 2026 forecast: ~$109.18B (back to 12.4% growth)
- Earnings per share (EPS):
- 2024 actual: $2.04
- 2025 forecast: $1.65 (a 19% drop)
- 2026 forecast: $2.14 (a 29% rebound)
In the most recent reported quarter, Tesla delivered: [36]
- Q3 EPS:$0.50, slightly above the $0.48 consensus
- Q3 revenue:$28.10B, versus $24.98B expected (up 11.6% year‑over‑year)
- Net margin: about 5.5%
Those are solid numbers — but at a share price around $451, Tesla trades at well over 200x 2026 EPS estimates, based on current forecasts.
3. 24/7 Wall St.’s 2025–2030 Tesla Price Model
24/7 Wall St. has published a detailed 2025–2030 Tesla price and earnings forecast, which is more bearish near‑term and much more bullish long‑term than typical Street targets: [37]
- They cite consensus 12‑month target around $392.93, again below today’s price.
- Their own model, using normalized EPS and revenue projections, suggests:
- Year‑end 2025 “fair value” around $351.73, implying ~21% downside from current levels.
- By 2030, projected revenue of about $297B and normalized EPS of $11.24 could justify a stock price near $1,116, roughly 150% above today’s price.
In other words, 24/7 Wall St. sees Tesla as potentially overvalued in the short run but still capable of being a multi‑bagger over the next five years if its growth ambitions in AI, robotaxis and energy play out.
Options and Technicals: What Short‑Term Traders Are Watching
1. Bullish Options Activity
Two separate options‑focused analyses (MarketMinute via FinancialContent and AInvest) show aggressive bullish positioning in the options market: [38]
- TSLA recently traded around $448–$449 with volume near 50M shares, while:
- Call open interest dominates at strikes between $450 and $480, particularly for near‑term expiries.
- A notable $14.7 million call sweep targeted a $550 strike expiring in January 2026, suggesting some traders are positioning for a significant upside move.
- The put‑call open interest ratio sits around 0.85–0.87, meaning calls outnumber puts by roughly 16%, a bullish skew.
At the same time, there is sizeable deep out‑of‑the‑money put interest at much lower strikes (e.g., $140–$220), reflecting either long‑term hedges or speculative bets on a severe sell‑off if Tesla’s robotics and AI narrative disappoints. [39]
2. Key Technical Levels
Short‑term technical commentary from MarketBeat and TradingView/Invezz highlights several levels traders are watching: [40]
- Support:
- $385 — defended twice in November, seen as a key swing low.
- The 50‑day moving average around $445, where buyers stepped in this week.
- Resistance:
- $455–$475 — an area that includes recent intraday highs and October’s pullback level.
- $488–$490 — the 52‑week high region.
- Long‑term support: The 200‑day moving average near the low‑$340s is viewed as major structural support for longer‑term holders.
Technical indicators like RSI and MACD have recently turned higher from near‑oversold levels, signaling renewed momentum, but some short‑term overbought signals suggest volatility ahead if the December rally stalls. [41]
The Long‑Term Tesla Story: Beyond EVs
Tesla’s current valuation can’t be explained by car sales alone — the bull case now rests heavily on AI, autonomy, robotics and energy.
1. Optimus and Robotics
Recent coverage emphasizes Tesla’s ambition to turn Optimus, its humanoid robot, into a major business line: [42]
- Viral clips show rapid progress in Optimus’ capabilities between 2023 and 2025.
- Tesla is reportedly planning a large Optimus production line in Fremont, indicating intent to scale beyond R&D prototypes. [43]
- Musk has argued that robots and robotaxis could eventually generate more profit than the car business, and hinted that Tesla’s in‑house AI chips (AI4, AI5, AI6) could one day be produced at volumes exceeding those of dedicated AI chipmakers. [44]
Policy support — like the potential U.S. robotics executive order discussed this week — is seen as critical to speeding up deployment and protecting U.S. robotics firms from foreign competition. [45]
2. Robotaxis and Full Self‑Driving (FSD)
Tesla is simultaneously pushing its robotaxi and FSD vision: [46]
- 24/7 Wall St. notes that Tesla aims to deploy hundreds of robotaxis in Austin and Silicon Valley, highlighting autonomy as a core growth driver. [47]
- Tesla continues to test FSD in Europe and other regions, including high‑profile demo drives with city officials (such as a road demonstration for the mayor of Rome). [48]
But FSD remains controversial, and regulatory approval for fully driverless operations at scale is far from guaranteed.
3. Energy Storage and Infrastructure
Tesla’s energy generation and storage businesses are increasingly important to the long‑term story: [49]
- Q1 2025: 10.4 GWh of energy storage deployed
- Q2 2025: 9.6 GWh
- Q3 2025:12.5 GWh — a new record
MarketMinute notes that the energy segment delivered ~81% year‑over‑year growth, providing a faster‑growing, potentially higher‑margin revenue stream that diversifies Tesla away from cyclical car sales. [50]
If Tesla can continue to grow energy deployments and software‑like revenue (e.g., autonomy, insurance, connectivity), the long‑term earnings profile could look much more like a diversified tech and infrastructure company than a pure automaker — the cornerstone of the bull thesis.
Risks to the Tesla Bull Case
Even long‑term optimists acknowledge that Tesla stock carries significant risks, many of which are front‑and‑center in 2025 reporting:
- EV Demand & Competition
- Tesla faces falling sales in Europe and rising competition from both Chinese brands and legacy automakers offering cheaper EVs and hybrids. [51]
- Weakness in key markets could continue to weigh on vehicle margins and utilization at major factories.
- Brand and Governance Concerns
- Coverage from Electrek and others links part of Tesla’s sales slump to CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing public profile and political activity, which have alienated some consumers. [52]
- The controversial $1 trillion compensation package and Musk’s many other roles also fuel worries about governance and focus. [53]
- Valuation Stretch
- AInvest’s data suggest TSLA trades at around 294x trailing earnings and ~16x sales, well above most automakers and even many high‑growth tech names. [54]
- If growth disappoints or margins compress, multiple contraction alone could cause significant downside.
- Execution Risk in Robotics and AI
- The market is already pricing in substantial value for Tesla’s Optimus, robotaxi and AI chip ambitions — projects that are capital‑intensive, technically complex and heavily regulated. [55]
- Delays, accidents or regulatory setbacks could quickly shift sentiment, particularly given the bullish options positioning. [56]
- Macro & Policy Uncertainty
- Shifting trade policies, changing EV subsidies, and evolving safety/AI regulations can materially affect Tesla’s margins and demand in its three biggest markets: U.S., China and Europe. [57]
What Today Means for Tesla Investors
For anyone following Tesla stock on December 4, 2025, here’s the big picture:
- Short term, TSLA is enjoying a December bounce powered by robotics headlines, improving China data and a sizable U.S. tax credit win — all amplified by bullish technicals and options activity. [58]
- Fundamentally, 2025 remains a transition year: record Q3 deliveries and strong energy growth on one side, but declining full‑year EV volumes, rising inventories and intense competition on the other. [59]
- Valuation‑wise, most aggregated 12‑month price targets from Wall Street actually sit below today’s share price, while longer‑term models (like 24/7 Wall St.’s) see meaningful downside in 2025 but multi‑year upside potential if Tesla’s AI and robotics bets pay off. [60]
If you’re considering Tesla stock, some practical questions to ask yourself include:
- Time horizon: Are you trading the December momentum, or are you thinking in 5‑ to 10‑year terms where robots, AI and energy storage could dominate the story?
- Risk tolerance: Can you stomach a highly volatile stock trading at a premium multiple that could re‑rate sharply in either direction?
- Thesis clarity: Is your thesis primarily about cars, software and services, robotics/AI, or some blend of all three — and what would realistically need to happen in each area to justify today’s valuation?
Again, this article is not a recommendation to buy or sell Tesla stock. It’s a synthesis of today’s major news, forecasts and analyses so you can make more informed decisions based on your own goals, constraints and risk appetite.
References
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