Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) finished Monday’s session with fresh “near-$500” momentum — and the story powering the tape into the close was familiar: autonomy optimism, a high-profile legal win for CEO Elon Musk, and holiday-week positioning as liquidity thins out.
Tesla shares closed at $488.73, up about 1.6%, after trading as high as $498.7 intraday. In early after-hours trading, the stock was little changed around $488.73 as of the latest update (about 5:25 p.m. ET).
Below is what mattered after the bell on 12/22/2025 — and what traders and long-term investors should keep on their radar before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025.
Tesla stock today: the after-hours snapshot
Here are the key numbers from Monday’s session:
- Close: $488.73 (+1.6%)
- Intraday high / low: $498.7 / $485.51
- Volume: ~86.6 million shares
- After-hours (early): roughly flat near $488.73 (as of ~5:25 p.m. ET)
With the stock pressing up toward the psychologically important $500 level, the market’s focus remains less about near-term EV demand and more about whether Tesla can convert its autonomy narrative into durable, scalable revenue — without regulatory setbacks or safety controversies.
Why TSLA moved: autonomy headlines are dominating the news cycle
1) Robotaxi momentum is global — and Tesla is trying to move from “supervised” to “unsupervised”
A major Reuters round-up published late Monday underscored how quickly robotaxi deployments are expanding globally, with ride-hailing and AV firms announcing new trials across multiple regions. In that same context, Reuters noted Tesla’s position in Austin:
- Tesla began a limited paid robotaxi rollout in Austin in June using Model Y vehicles, initially requiring a safety monitor onboard in a restricted area. [1]
- Reuters also reported Tesla is testing vehicles without safety monitors onboard (i.e., pushing toward a more autonomous operating mode). [2]
That “unsupervised” angle matters because it’s the bridge between compelling demos and a business model Wall Street can actually underwrite.
Some trading-day coverage also pointed to additional unsupervised robotaxi videos circulating from Austin, reinforcing the sense that Tesla is accelerating internal testing. [3]
2) A competitor stumble put robotaxi safety — and emergency readiness — back in the spotlight
Over the weekend, San Francisco suffered a major power outage, and multiple reports said Waymo robotaxis stopped and blocked streets, forcing the company to temporarily suspend service. The incident revived public debate about whether robotaxis can reliably handle chaotic, real-world edge cases at scale.
According to the Associated Press:
- The outage impacted about 130,000 homes and businesses (nearly a third of PG&E customers in San Francisco), and videos showed Waymo vehicles stopping at intersections where traffic lights were out. [4]
- Waymo paused service Saturday evening and resumed Sunday afternoon. [5]
Axios framed it as a “robotaxi risk in emergencies” moment, highlighting concerns that loss of connectivity and remote-ops bottlenecks could freeze fleets during disasters — creating real public-safety and emergency-response complications. [6]
For Tesla investors, this matters in two competing ways:
- Bull case: Any high-profile stumbles by rival systems can strengthen the narrative that the robotaxi problem is still wide open — and that Tesla’s approach could still win on cost and scalability if it works.
- Bear case: These incidents also remind regulators (and the public) that robotaxis can fail in disruptive conditions — potentially slowing approvals and hardening safety requirements industry-wide.
Barron’s coverage tied the broader robotaxi “battle” and outage fallout to Tesla’s stock strength near records. [7]
The Musk pay-package ruling: why the market cares (even if it’s not operational)
Another major catalyst in the background is governance — specifically Elon Musk’s compensation and control.
Reuters reported that the Delaware Supreme Court restored Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package, which had been struck down previously. Reuters also noted:
- The restored 2018 package was valued at about $139 billion based on Tesla’s stock price at the close of the prior Friday. [8]
- Tesla has also pursued a newer pay plan, which Reuters said could reach $878 billion if performance targets are met. [9]
Investopedia’s “what to know today” briefing highlighted the same ruling as a top market story entering the holiday-shortened week — and noted Tesla shares were higher premarket on Monday as traders digested the decision. [10]
Why this matters to TSLA holders:
- Tesla’s valuation is deeply tied to long-dated bets (robotaxi, Optimus, AI). Investors often treat Musk’s engagement and control as a critical variable for those bets.
- Legal clarity can reduce a perceived “overhang,” even if it doesn’t change deliveries, margins, or near-term execution.
Forecasts and analyst takes: optimism on robotaxi, caution on deliveries
Deutsche Bank: softer Q4 deliveries, but a higher $500 target
One of the most market-relevant analyst notes in circulation comes from Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, summarized by Investing.com:
- Deutsche Bank expects Q4 2025 deliveries around ~405,000, below consensus and prior DB forecasts, citing weaker volumes in the U.S. and (to a lesser extent) China. [11]
- The note also flagged potential profitability pressure and modeled auto gross margin (ex-credits) around 14.4%, down sequentially. [12]
- Despite the near-term caution, Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $500 (Buy rating), pointing to higher valuation multiples tied to robotaxi and humanoid initiatives — and noting Tesla has removed the safety driver in Austin for internal validation testing. [13]
This “short-term fundamentals vs. long-term autonomy optionality” split is the central tension in Tesla stock right now.
FactSet consensus into early January: deliveries are the next hard data point
The Motley Fool emphasized the next near-term catalyst: Tesla is expected to release Q4 delivery numbers on or around Jan. 2, 2026. It cited FactSet expectations of roughly:
- ~450,000 deliveries in Q4,
- ~1.67 million deliveries for full-year 2025, implying a ~7% decline vs. 2024. [14]
Whether Tesla prints closer to 405k (DB’s view) or closer to 450k (FactSet/Street expectations) is likely to shape sentiment into early January — especially with the stock sitting near record highs.
What the broader Street looks like (consensus targets)
A MarketWatch analyst snapshot listed Tesla with an average recommendation around “Hold” and an average target price near ~$419.78 (based on 49 analyst ratings). [15]
The takeaway: even with TSLA near $500, a meaningful portion of Wall Street still sees limited upside on traditional valuation frameworks — reinforcing that Tesla’s rally is being priced as an autonomy/AI story, not just an automaker story.
Other Tesla news today: energy storage deal headlines add to the “non-auto” narrative
While robotaxi news dominated, Tesla’s energy business also generated fresh headlines.
A PRNewswire release from Matrix Renewables said the company signed a Full EPC agreement with Tesla for a 500 MW / 2-hour (1 GWh) standalone battery energy storage system project in Eccles, Scotland, with Tesla handling design, construction, and commissioning. The release said full consent has been secured to commence construction and highlighted the project’s role in grid flexibility and renewable integration. [16]
This kind of announcement won’t usually move TSLA day-to-day the way robotaxi narratives do — but it supports Tesla’s longer-running push to broaden investor focus beyond EV deliveries.
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025)
1) Watch the macro calendar: GDP, durable goods, and consumer confidence can swing growth stocks
Tesla is a high-beta, narrative-driven mega-cap. On days with major U.S. macro data, TSLA can react as much to rates and risk appetite as it does to Tesla-specific headlines.
For Tuesday, multiple outlets flagged key releases including:
- Q3 GDP estimate and Durable Goods (morning)
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 a.m. ET) [17]
If these numbers surprise meaningfully, they can move Treasury yields and reshape the market’s appetite for high-multiple stocks — including Tesla.
2) Holiday-week liquidity is real — and it can exaggerate TSLA moves
This is a holiday-shortened week, and that tends to mean thinner liquidity and sharper intraday swings (in either direction).
The NYSE confirms the U.S. equity market will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, and will be closed Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas. [18]
For TSLA, thin liquidity can amplify:
- breakout attempts above $500,
- sudden profit-taking,
- headline-driven spikes in either direction.
3) “Robotaxi tape” risk remains high
Given today’s headlines, the market will be sensitive to any overnight or premarket developments tied to:
- Tesla’s Austin robotaxi testing pace (especially anything suggesting expanded operations) [19]
- Regulatory commentary or safety scrutiny following the Waymo outage coverage [20]
In other words: a single incident, statement, or leak can matter more than usual when a stock is priced for an autonomy future.
4) Know what you won’t likely get tomorrow: new Tesla filings
Tesla’s investor relations SEC filings page shows the most recent posted items dated Dec. 11, 2025 (with no newer filing listed there as of today). [21]
That doesn’t rule out any overnight disclosures elsewhere — but it suggests there’s no obvious scheduled filing catalyst heading into Tuesday’s open.
5) The setup: $500 is the headline level, but deliveries are the next “hard-number” catalyst
Technically and psychologically, $500 is the obvious magnet. Fundamentally, the next major “truth moment” is early January deliveries:
Between now and then, TSLA trading is likely to stay dominated by:
- autonomy/robotaxi headlines,
- macro-driven risk-on/risk-off shifts,
- and holiday-week liquidity effects.
Bottom line
Tesla stock ended Dec. 22, 2025 near record highs, holding steady in early after-hours after a strong session that pushed TSLA toward $500.
The market’s message is clear: TSLA is being traded primarily as an autonomy + AI optionality story — reinforced by Reuters’ reporting on Tesla’s Austin robotaxi efforts and the broader global robotaxi rollout, plus the renewed spotlight on robotaxi safety after Waymo’s outage-related disruption in San Francisco. [24]
Before Tuesday’s open, keep your eyes on macro data (GDP/durable goods/consumer confidence) and be mindful that holiday-week conditions can magnify volatility. [25]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investors.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. www.axios.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.fool.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. apnews.com, 21. ir.tesla.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.fool.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.barrons.com
