Tesla, Inc. stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) ended Tuesday’s session still “knocking on” the $500 door—but not kicking it in. Shares closed at $486.32, down 0.49% on the day after trading between roughly $482.84 and $491.97, with about 47.9 million shares traded. [1]
In early after-hours trading, TSLA was little changed, hovering around $485.50 shortly after the closing bell. [2]
With the market headed into a holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, Dec. 24, Tesla is entering a “thin-liquidity” setup where headlines—and options positioning around round numbers—can matter even more than usual.
Tesla stock price recap: the $500 ceiling remains the key level
Tuesday’s pullback matters largely because of what happened just before it: TSLA is coming off a push to fresh highs near $498.83 earlier this week, keeping the psychological $500 mark front-and-center for traders and long-term investors alike. [3]
Technically, several market commentators are framing $500 as the immediate “breakout zone” into January, arguing that repeated tests of a major round number can concentrate momentum buying, profit-taking, and options hedging in the same area. [4]
The biggest Tesla headlines today: deliveries pressure meets robotaxi optimism
Tesla’s stock narrative on Dec. 23 was defined by a familiar tug-of-war:
1) Europe data: Tesla registrations fell while BYD surged
A Reuters report citing ACEA data showed new car sales in Europe rose year-over-year in November for a fifth month, helped by EV registrations, but Tesla registrations fell 11.8% across the EU, UK, and EFTA region. In the same dataset, BYD registrations jumped 221.8%, with Tesla and BYD each around ~2% market share for the month. [5]
For TSLA investors, this is the uncomfortable backdrop: EV adoption can rise in key markets while Tesla’s share becomes more contested—supporting the “competition is real” argument even as Tesla bulls pitch an autonomy-led valuation.
2) A fresh wave of Q4 delivery warnings hit today
A widely circulated note summarized by Investing.com said multiple analysts expect Tesla’s Q4 deliveries to fall short of consensus:
- New Street Research:415,000–435,000 deliveries vs. consensus around ~440,000
- UBS:~415,000, flagged as ~5% below Visible Alpha consensus [6]
The common thread: analysts pointed to a post-incentive “hangover” after the $7,500 consumer EV tax credit expired at the end of September, describing a U.S. demand “air pocket” as volumes normalize following earlier pull-forward buying. [7]
Crucially, the same coverage noted that the market’s near-term debate is shifting from “Will Tesla miss?” to “Does the market still care about deliveries—or only robotaxi and Optimus milestones?” [8]
3) ARK Invest sold more TSLA shares as deliveries loom
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest disclosed another Tesla trim—about 60,715 shares, roughly $29.7 million—even as TSLA remains a core holding in ARK’s flagship ETFs. The same coverage highlighted that Q4 deliveries in January are a near-term focal point, with one cited analyst estimate calling for ~449,000 deliveries, down ~9.5% year over year. [9]
For the market, ARK selling tends to be interpreted in two opposite ways:
- “Responsible rebalancing into strength,” or
- “A sign that upside may be harder from here.”
Either way, it adds to the sense that TSLA is in a high-expectations zone going into year-end.
4) Wall Street is still paying for the robotaxi story
Despite delivery concerns, bullish price targets tied to autonomy remained prominent today. StockAnalysis.com’s compilation showed a fresh Dec. 23 update from Canaccord Genuity, lifting its target from $482 to $551 (maintaining a strong buy stance). [10]
More broadly, Tesla is still being priced by many investors less like a pure automaker and more like an “autonomy + AI + robotics” platform—an outlook echoed in mainstream market commentary today, even as some analysts argue the stock is overvalued on traditional auto fundamentals. [11]
Quiet fundamental tailwind: Tesla Energy signs a major UK Megapack project
While robotaxi headlines dominate, Tesla’s energy storage business keeps landing tangible deals. Matrix Renewables announced it signed a full EPC agreement with Tesla for a 500 MW / 2-hour (1 GWh) standalone battery energy storage system in Scotland. [12]
For TSLA watchers, projects like this matter because they:
- support the “diversified Tesla” story beyond vehicle deliveries, and
- potentially add a steadier, infrastructure-like revenue stream alongside the higher-volatility autonomy narrative.
A safety/regulatory risk headline to keep on the radar
A separate story gaining traction today: Car and Driver summarized a Bloomberg investigation into Tesla’s electrically powered doors/handles, reporting that at least 15 crash-related deaths have been linked to doors becoming inoperable after severe crashes, particularly where fires and 12-volt power loss were factors. The report noted ongoing scrutiny, including an NHTSA investigation into Model Y door handles opened in September 2025. [13]
This isn’t necessarily a “tomorrow morning” trading catalyst, but it’s the kind of safety narrative that can reprice sentiment quickly if regulators escalate.
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025)
1) Tomorrow is a holiday-shortened session
U.S. equity markets will be open, but close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24. [14]
Bond markets are also expected to close early (2:00 p.m. ET), per SIFMA guidance. [15]
Markets are closed Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas Day. [16]
Why it matters for TSLA: shortened sessions often bring lower liquidity, which can exaggerate price swings—especially in a high-beta name trading near a major round-number level.
2) The next two Tesla dates that can reset the narrative
Even if tomorrow is quiet, two upcoming events are setting the tone:
- Q4 delivery report (watch early January): Analysts are increasingly focused on whether Tesla prints closer to ~415k–435k deliveries vs. the ~440k consensus area. [17]
- Next earnings date: StockAnalysis lists Tesla’s next earnings as Jan. 28, 2026. [18]
3) The overnight “watch list” that can move TSLA into the open
Going into Wednesday morning, TSLA traders are likely to react to:
- Any incremental delivery/channel checks (especially U.S. demand post-tax-credit) [19]
- Europe/China demand headlines (competition, pricing, registrations) [20]
- Autonomy/robotaxi updates (progress signals tend to outweigh near-term auto softness in today’s market narrative) [21]
- Risk headlines (regulatory or safety scrutiny stories can hit sentiment quickly in a stock priced for blue-sky outcomes) [22]
Valuation and expectations: why TSLA can be volatile around “minor” news
At Tuesday’s levels, Tesla remains a mega-cap priced for an ambitious roadmap. StockAnalysis lists TSLA around $1.6T in market cap, with a very elevated trailing P/E and a still-rich forward P/E—the kind of setup where investors often demand continuous proof points on autonomy, robotics, and software-like margin expansion. [23]
That’s the core tension into tomorrow:
- Near-term fundamentals (deliveries, margins, competition) are generating cautious forecasts. [24]
- Long-term optionality (robotaxi, AI, Optimus) is keeping price targets and enthusiasm elevated. [25]
Bottom line for Dec. 24: TSLA is trading like an autonomy stock in a car company’s body
Tesla stock finished Dec. 23 below $500, and early after-hours action was subdued. [26] The bigger issue for Wednesday’s open isn’t what TSLA did today—it’s what investors believe Tesla will prove next.
In a shortened session, watch for:
- a clean break toward (or rejection from) $500,
- fresh delivery commentary that either reinforces or challenges the sub-440k Q4 chatter, and
- any autonomy headlines that keep the market focused on 2026 expectations rather than 2025 deliveries.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. www.caranddriver.com, 14. www.nyse.com, 15. www.sifma.org, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.caranddriver.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. stockanalysis.com
