Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock finished Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at a fresh record, extending a late-2025 rally that has increasingly been driven by autonomy/robotaxi expectations rather than traditional EV demand metrics. Shares closed at about $489.88 (+3.1%), with an intraday high around $491.50, and then traded fractionally lower in after-hours as investors digested a packed set of headlines on robotaxi progress, analyst targets, and policy risk for EV adoption. [1]
Below is a detailed roundup of today’s news, forecasts, and analyst takes, plus a practical checklist of what to watch before the U.S. stock market opens Wednesday, December 17, 2025.
TSLA after-hours snapshot: where Tesla stock stands tonight
After the closing bell:
- Regular-session close: ~$489.88, up about 3.07% [2]
- After-hours: roughly flat to slightly down (around ~$489.55 shortly after the close in the Yahoo quote feed) [3]
- Day’s range (market data feed): roughly $466–$491 with ~105M shares traded
The key takeaway for tonight: the “record close” story held, and the after-hours tape didn’t show immediate profit-taking pressure big enough to change the narrative heading into Wednesday’s premarket. [4]
Why Tesla popped today: robotaxi excitement is back in control of the tape
1) “No safety monitor” robotaxi testing becomes the headline catalyst
The dominant driver in Tuesday’s coverage was a renewed burst of optimism around Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla is testing fully autonomous robotaxis without safety monitors—a step investors interpret as progress toward scaling autonomous ride-hailing. [5]
Barron’s linked the record move directly to robotaxi momentum and framed it as a milestone moment versus last year’s highs. [6]
2) The market is increasingly valuing Tesla as an “AI/autonomy platform”
Investopedia’s write-up on the new record emphasized that investors have refocused on Tesla’s “future tech” stack—autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI—after a difficult earlier stretch in 2025. [7]
That framing matters because it helps explain why TSLA can rally hard even when EV demand headlines are mixed: in this regime, the marginal buyer is often trading the autonomy timeline and potential software/service economics, not just vehicle deliveries.
Today’s analyst forecasts & price targets: upside dreams vs. a still-skeptical consensus
A striking feature of today’s coverage is the wide dispersion between bullish “autonomy-driven” targets and more conservative views anchored in near-term fundamentals.
The bulls: targets pushed higher on autonomy progress
- Mizuho raised its price target to $530, pointing to improved self-driving capability (Investopedia cited the view that performance is now >99% without human intervention in their framing). [8]
- Wedbush remains notably bullish at $600, with analysts highlighting Tesla’s AI/robotics angle. [9]
The cautious camp: targets that imply meaningful downside from ~$490
- Goldman Sachs reiterated Neutral with a $400 target, even while acknowledging the “no safety monitor” testing as progress. Goldman’s view, as reported by Investing.com, centers on two “prove it” questions: how quickly Tesla can scale driverless operations and whether ride-hailing/autonomy becomes sustainably profitable, especially amid competition. [10]
- Barclays stayed cautious with a $350 target, emphasizing scaling and regulatory uncertainty. [11]
The consensus tension: price targets vs. price reality
Multiple outlets highlighted that the average Street price target is around $400 while the stock is near $490, implying analysts (in aggregate) still see downside even after the rally. [12]
What to do with this as a reader: it’s a clean signal that TSLA is trading like a high-conviction narrative stock right now. In that setup, headlines about autonomy progress can overwhelm traditional valuation anchors—until something forces a reset (regulatory action, safety incident data, margin deterioration, or a macro shock).
A second major Tesla headline today: Berlin battery cell investments ramp up
Robotaxis grabbed the spotlight, but Reuters delivered an important “real economy” Tesla update Tuesday: Tesla said it is expanding battery cell production efforts at its German gigafactory in Grünheide (near Berlin).
Key points from Reuters:
- Tesla aims for up to 8 GWh/year of battery cell output starting in 2027. [13]
- The company is investing several hundred million euros more, bringing total battery-cell investment at the site to nearly €1 billion. [14]
- Tesla also acknowledged that producing cells economically in Europe is currently harder than in China and the U.S. [15]
- The Grünheide plant is Tesla’s only gigafactory in Europe, and Reuters noted Tesla has been facing a decline in market share in the region. [16]
Why this matters for TSLA tomorrow: it gives investors a fresh data point on Tesla’s long-term strategy of vertical integration—but it also reintroduces the margin/cost question in Europe at a time when the stock is priced for big wins in autonomy.
EV policy risk moved back into focus today (and it’s not just a Tesla story)
Even if TSLA is trading on robotaxis, the policy backdrop can still swing sentiment around EV adoption, infrastructure, and competition.
1) U.S. lawsuit over EV charging grants
Reuters reported that 16 states and Washington, D.C. sued the federal government after the Trump administration suspended two grant programs tied to EV charging infrastructure funding. The report said the action could jeopardize $1.8 billion in awards and described broader administration actions against EV incentives. [17]
Tesla has its own charging network footprint, but the broader implication is that public infrastructure growth and EV adoption policy may remain politically volatile, which can affect the whole sector’s demand expectations.
2) Europe proposes dropping the “effective ban” on new combustion-engine cars in 2035
Reuters also reported that the European Commission proposed dropping the EU’s effective 2035 ban on new combustion-engine car sales, moving toward a framework targeting a 90% CO2 reduction (rather than zero emissions) and allowing certain non-EV pathways, alongside offset mechanisms. [18]
This is not a one-to-one Tesla earnings lever overnight, but it’s a meaningful narrative headwind: if Europe’s transition becomes more flexible (more hybrids, more offsets), the “inevitable EV share gain” story can soften.
What to watch before the stock market opens Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025
Here’s the practical checklist—Tesla-specific first, then the macro calendar that can move high-beta tech.
1) Premarket TSLA reaction: does ~$490 hold psychologically?
After-hours trading looked calm, but $490 is now a highly visible level. If Tesla opens materially above/below it, expect headlines to frame that move as either “breakout confirmation” or “post-record hesitation.” [19]
Also watch whether news outlets pick up additional overnight commentary on the Berlin battery investment story from Reuters. [20]
2) Robotaxi narrative risk: regulation, safety data, and “proof points”
The bull case is increasingly tied to removing safety monitors and scaling service across cities. Goldman’s note explicitly described planned expansion of Tesla’s ride-hail service with robotaxi tech to 8–10 metro areas by year-end, naming cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Miami, while highlighting the market’s focus on speed of scaling and profitability. [21]
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s framework (as reported overnight by Investing.com) highlights three near-term catalysts: opening robotaxis to the public without a safety monitor, improving safety metrics as miles increase, and starting Cybercab production targeted for April 2026—with an expectation of ~1,000 robotaxis in 2026 and 1 million by 2035. [22]
Translation: any incremental headline that supports (or undermines) those milestones can move TSLA quickly—especially after a record close.
3) Key U.S. economic data Wednesday morning (Eastern Time)
According to the New York Fed’s economic indicators calendar, Wednesday’s scheduled releases include:
Retail Sales is the bigger potential mover for broad risk sentiment. A surprise can push yields and the dollar, which often feeds directly into the day’s appetite for high-multiple growth stocks like Tesla.
4) Fed speakers before and during the trading day
The Federal Reserve’s own calendar shows Governor Christopher J. Waller scheduled for an 8:15 a.m. discussion on Wednesday, Dec. 17. [25]
Why TSLA traders care: Tesla is sensitive to real-rate expectations because so much of the valuation rests on future cash flows (and, right now, future autonomy economics).
5) Earnings that could sway broader market tone pre-open
Nasdaq’s pre-market earnings list for 12/17/2025 includes companies such as General Mills (GIS) and Jabil (JBL) reporting before the open. [26]
Not Tesla-specific, but if earnings drive a sharp risk-on/risk-off tape in index futures, TSLA often moves with that impulse—amplified.
The bottom line for Tesla stock heading into Wednesday
Tesla closed at a record because the market is currently treating TSLA less like a traditional automaker and more like a leveraged bet on autonomy commercialization—and today’s coverage reinforced that. [27]
Into Wednesday’s open, the “what could change quickly” list is clear:
- any incremental robotaxi/autonomy headline (positive or negative), [28]
- reactions to Reuters’ Berlin battery investment news, [29]
- and macro volatility around Retail Sales and Fed communication early in the session. [30]
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 3. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. ph.investing.com, 23. www.newyorkfed.org, 24. www.newyorkfed.org, 25. www.federalreserve.gov, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.newyorkfed.org
