December 17, 2025 — Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back at the center of the market’s imagination machine. Shares are trading around $489.88, after a record close near $490 that snapped a roughly one‑year “no new highs” streak and reignited the debate over what Tesla really is: car company, AI company, robotaxi platform, or all of the above. [1]
The timing isn’t subtle. Over the last 48 hours, Tesla has stacked multiple headline catalysts: Elon Musk publicly pointing to driverless robotaxi testing, a fresh regulatory development in California that could have threatened sales but was temporarily put on hold, and new signals that Tesla is still investing heavily in the supply chain that powers its EVs. [2]
Below is the full picture of the news, forecasts, and analysis shaping Tesla stock as of 17.12.2025—and what investors are watching next.
Tesla Stock Price Today: Why $490 Matters So Much
Tesla’s latest price action is more than a “number go up” moment. It’s a narrative checkpoint.
- TSLA is hovering around $489.88 in recent trading.
- The stock closed near $490 on Tuesday, marking its first record close in about a year, helped by renewed optimism around autonomy, robotics, and AI. [3]
That record matters because Tesla’s valuation has long behaved like a referendum on future businesses (robotaxis, software, humanoid robots), even when near‑term fundamentals (vehicle demand and margins) are messy. Reuters noted earlier this week that much of Tesla’s value is tied to investor expectations around self‑driving and robotics, even though EV sales still represent most current revenue and profit. [4]
The Robotaxi Catalyst: “No Safety Monitor” Testing Raises the Stakes
The most direct spark for the rally is autonomy—specifically, the idea that Tesla is moving from “supervised demos” toward true driverless operations.
Reuters reported that Musk said Tesla was testing robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat, and also relayed Musk’s post indicating testing was underway with no occupants in the car. [5]
Investopedia added important context: Tesla’s Austin robotaxi pilot earlier this year still included a Tesla employee in the driver’s or passenger’s seat, and the market is interpreting the newest claims as a potential step-change toward scaling the program. [6]
Tesla vs. Waymo: Investors Are Watching the “Real Competition,” Not the PR War
If Tesla is trying to convince markets that robotaxis are imminent, the benchmark isn’t another EV maker—it’s Waymo.
- Reuters noted Waymo leads with more than 2,500 commercial robotaxis across major U.S. cities and cited reporting that Waymo has been operating at the scale of hundreds of thousands of paid rides per week. [7]
- A separate Reuters report said Waymo is discussing a capital raise that could value it at $100B+, underscoring how much money is flowing into autonomous driving—and how intense competition may become as commercialization accelerates. [8]
For TSLA shareholders, this matters because the robotaxi upside case is not just “Tesla builds it.” It’s also: Tesla builds it, regulators allow it, customers trust it, and unit economics work—despite strong, well-funded competitors already operating driverless services.
California’s Autopilot Decision: A Near-Term Risk That Just Turned Into a Countdown Clock
While autonomy excitement is lifting the stock, California just reminded investors that the legal and regulatory layers are not optional side quests.
Reuters reported that California’s DMV adopted a judge’s proposal for a 30-day suspension of Tesla’s manufacturing and sales licenses—but then immediately stayed enforcement, delaying the sales suspension for 90 days and staying the manufacturing suspension indefinitely. [9]
Critically, Reuters also reported the DMV told Tesla it can avoid the sales suspension by either:
- stopping use of the “Autopilot” name, or
- submitting a statement confirming Tesla vehicles can operate without active human monitoring. [10]
And Tesla may seek court review by February 14, according to the same report. [11]
Why investors should care: California is a real revenue battlefield
Reuters described California as Tesla’s biggest U.S. market, meaning even a temporary sales disruption could be material—especially during a period when EV demand is already under pressure. [12]
The San Francisco Chronicle provided additional detail on the contested marketing language and described the state’s view that several phrases could lead consumers to believe Tesla’s system is autonomous when it isn’t, along with the 90‑day window before a potential 30‑day sales ban. [13]
The market’s immediate takeaway appears to be “crisis delayed,” not “risk resolved.” In stock terms, that’s relief—followed by a ticking clock.
EV Demand Check: Strong Stock, Softening Sales Signals
One of the strangest things about Tesla as a stock is how often its price movement is dominated by future tech narratives while the present-day car business quietly sets the floor.
A Reuters report based on Cox Automotive estimates said Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% in November to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest since January 2022, despite the launch of cheaper “Standard” versions of the Model 3 and Model Y. [14]
Reuters also reported:
- U.S. EV sales overall fell more than 41% in November after the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit, while Tesla’s market share rose to 56.7%. [15]
- Cox suggested “Standard” trims may be cannibalizing higher-priced variants, and noted Tesla was offering 0% financing on some versions—often read as a demand signal. [16]
This is the core tension inside TSLA today: autonomy optimism is inflating the ceiling while EV demand dynamics are tugging at the foundation.
Manufacturing and Supply Chain: Germany Battery-Cell Push Signals Long-Term Commitment
Even while Tesla talks software, it’s still spending like a manufacturer that expects to ship a lot of physical product.
Reuters reported Tesla is preparing to produce up to 8 GWh of battery cells annually at its Grünheide gigafactory starting in 2027, with an additional “three-digit million” euro investment that would bring total battery-cell facility investment to nearly €1 billion. Tesla also noted it’s difficult to produce cells economically in Europe versus China and the U.S. [17]
This investment matters for two reasons:
- Vertical integration: Tesla is still betting that tighter control over components can protect cost structure and supply resilience. [18]
- Europe strategy pressure: Reuters pointed to declining market share in Europe—meaning the region is both strategically important and operationally challenging. [19]
Tesla Energy: The “Quiet Business” That Keeps Getting Louder
While EV demand headlines dominate, Tesla’s energy storage footprint keeps expanding—and it shows up in both deployments and partnerships.
Tesla’s own investor relations release said that in Q3 2025 the company deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products, a record, alongside delivering about 497,099 vehicles. [20]
On the partnerships front, SPIE announced a three-year (renewable) European framework agreement with Tesla for the deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS) using Tesla Megapack solutions, describing work across multiple European countries and citing example projects in Belgium, the Netherlands, and France. [21]
For TSLA stock, the energy segment is often treated as optional upside. But in an environment where EV demand can wobble with incentives and interest rates, recurring grid-scale storage work can act as a stabilizer—especially if deployments continue scaling.
Wall Street Forecasts for Tesla Stock: A Massive Spread Signals a Market Argument, Not a Consensus
If you want a clean, unified “street view” on Tesla… you will not find one today. What you will find is an unusually wide distribution of price targets.
The consensus: roughly $400, implying downside from ~$490
MarketBeat’s aggregated snapshot shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Average price target: $400.86
- High target: $600
- Low target: $19.05 [22]
StockAnalysis.com shows a similar picture:
- Average price target around $396
- Median target $435
- High $600, low $19.05 [23]
The big headline here is not the exact number—it’s the implication: even after the rally, the “average analyst” is not pricing Tesla as a slam-dunk buy at these levels.
The bulls: autonomy + robotics = re-rating continues
Investopedia reported Mizuho raised its price target to $530 from $475, citing research suggesting Tesla’s self-driving software could operate over 99% of the time without driver intervention, and argued that progress could accelerate robotaxi expansion and reduce the need for a safety monitor. [24]
Investopedia also cited Wedbush—one of Tesla’s best-known bullish shops—maintaining a $600 target and framing 2026 as a pivotal year for Tesla’s autonomy and robotics narrative. [25]
The cautious camp: valuation and execution risk dominate
Notably, Goldman Sachs reiterated a Neutral rating with a $400 price target after the robotaxi testing headlines, focusing on how quickly Tesla can scale driverless operations and whether robotaxis can be profitable amid competition. [26]
StockAnalysis also lists Morgan Stanley moving to Hold with a $425 target in early December. [27]
Why the spread is the story
When targets range from $19 to $600, that’s not “disagreement.” That’s Wall Street admitting Tesla’s outcome depends on which business model wins:
- If Tesla becomes a high-margin autonomy platform → current prices can look like “early innings.”
- If autonomy remains constrained by regulation, safety incidents, or economics → the stock can look priced for perfection.
Governance and Management Overhang: Board Pay Story Re-enters the Frame
Tesla’s rally is happening while governance issues remain a background feature.
Reuters reported an Equilar analysis showing Tesla directors earned more than $3 billion through stock awards whose appreciated value outstripped peers, and noted Tesla had suspended director compensation starting in 2021 as part of a settlement over alleged excessive board-member pay. [28]
For long-term investors, governance doesn’t usually move TSLA day-to-day—but it can affect:
- investor trust during controversies,
- the perceived credibility of oversight around safety and autonomy,
- and how markets price “execution risk” when the stock is expensive.
What to Watch Next: The Tesla Stock Catalyst Calendar After Dec. 17, 2025
Here are the most important near-term drivers implied by today’s reporting and the current setup:
- California DMV compliance / appeal deadline
- Tesla has a limited window before the stayed sales suspension could be enforced, and Reuters reported Tesla could seek court review by February 14. [29]
- Robotaxi proof, not just promises
- Markets are reacting to the “no safety monitor” milestone, but sustained gains likely require clearer evidence of safety, scalability, regulatory cooperation, and real economics—especially with Waymo expanding and attracting capital. [30]
- Demand signals into year-end
- With U.S. sales pressure highlighted in the Cox/Reuters data, investors will be watching whether pricing, financing, and mix stabilize—or whether demand weakness persists into 2026. [31]
- Energy deployments and Megapack expansion
- Q3 deployments hit a record, and new European BESS agreements suggest continued momentum; further data could strengthen the case that Tesla is diversifying revenue streams beyond vehicles. [32]
Bottom Line: Tesla Stock Is Trading Like an Autonomy Referendum—With a Regulatory Timer Running
As of 17.12.2025, Tesla stock’s surge to a record high is being powered primarily by one belief: Tesla is getting closer to real, scalable autonomy, and that shift could reshape its revenue model and margins.
But the same autonomy narrative is also what puts Tesla directly in regulators’ crosshairs—starting with California’s demand that Tesla either change “Autopilot” branding or substantiate a level of autonomy that regulators argue the current product does not deliver. [33]
At nearly $490 per share, analysts’ consensus targets clustering closer to $400 suggest the easy part of the rally may be over—unless Tesla can convert this week’s headlines into durable, defensible execution. [34]
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.sfchronicle.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. ir.tesla.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. ir.tesla.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com
