Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is starting the week with fresh catalysts—and familiar contradictions—driving its stock: a major court win for CEO Elon Musk’s compensation, new signals that Tesla’s robotaxi push is moving into a higher‑risk phase, and renewed debate over whether investors are valuing Tesla as an automaker or as an AI/autonomy platform.
In premarket trading Monday, TSLA rose about 1.4% to roughly $488 after news that the Delaware Supreme Court restored Musk’s 2018 pay package. [1]
What’s moving Tesla stock on Dec. 22, 2025
Three themes are setting the tone for Tesla shares right now:
- Legal overhang easing: The Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Musk’s 2018 compensation plan—reversing a lower‑court decision and removing a long-running uncertainty that hovered over governance, dilution, and Musk’s voting power. [2]
- Robotaxi momentum (and scrutiny): Tesla’s Austin pilot continues to evolve, with new reporting that the company has begun testing vehicles without safety monitors—a step that excites bulls and alarms regulators and skeptics. [3]
- Regulatory and demand reality checks: California regulators are challenging Tesla’s “Autopilot”/“Full Self‑Driving” marketing, while new data and analyst notes highlight pressure on the core car business even as the stock trades near record levels. [4]
Delaware Supreme Court restores Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package: why TSLA traders care
The biggest headline behind today’s early move: Delaware’s Supreme Court restored Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package, which Reuters reported is now worth about $139 billion due to Tesla’s higher share price. [5]
Key details that matter for investors:
- The ruling overturned a 2024 decision that had rescinded the pay deal. [6]
- Reuters reported that if Musk exercises all of the options in the 2018 plan, his Tesla stake would rise from about 12.4% to 18.1% on an expanded share base. [7]
- Tesla shareholders also recently approved a new pay plan that Reuters said could reach $878 billion if targets are met—reinforcing that investor sentiment is still tightly linked to Musk remaining engaged at Tesla. [8]
There’s also a structural governance angle. Reuters noted Tesla is now incorporated in Texas, where the company can require a would‑be plaintiff to hold 3% of Tesla stock before suing for certain alleged corporate-law violations—an unusually high bar for shareholder litigation at Tesla’s size. [9]
Robotaxi milestones: Tesla pushes toward “unsupervised,” and the market leans in
Tesla’s robotaxi story remains the stock’s emotional engine. Earlier in December, Reuters reported TSLA jumped nearly 5% after Musk confirmed testing of robotaxis without safety monitors—a milestone because it implies Tesla is trying to move beyond “driver-supervised” ride-hailing pilots toward true autonomy. [10]
TechCrunch’s reporting adds color (and controversy) on what’s happening on the ground in Austin:
- Social-media videos showed an “empty” Tesla Model Y; Musk confirmed testing “with no occupants.” [11]
- Tesla began offering rides in Austin earlier in 2025 with employees serving as safety monitors, then moved those monitors to the driver’s seat before shifting again. [12]
- TechCrunch also reported Tesla’s small Austin test fleet has been involved in at least seven crashes since June and said the company heavily redacts some safety-related filings, likely increasing scrutiny as testing becomes more aggressive. [13]
Why that matters for TSLA: robotaxi progress is increasingly treated as valuation-relevant, even while most of Tesla’s current revenue still comes from selling cars. Reuters explicitly framed Tesla’s valuation as being strongly tied to investor confidence in self-driving and robotics. [14]
A weekend blackout in San Francisco turns into a robotaxi “stress test”
Another headline feeding the autonomy narrative today: a weekend power outage in San Francisco that temporarily disrupted Waymo’s driverless service.
Business Insider reported the outage affected about 130,000 Pacific Gas & Electric customers, and Waymo suspended ride-hailing on Saturday before resuming Sunday. Musk used the incident to claim Tesla robotaxis were unaffected. [15]
This matters less for near-term earnings and more for perception: Tesla and Waymo are pursuing autonomy with very different technical stacks, and events like these quickly become narrative ammunition in the “who wins robotaxis” debate. [16]
Regulatory risk: California challenges Tesla’s “Autopilot” marketing
While robotaxi headlines boost the bull case, California regulators are tightening the screws on Tesla’s branding and claims.
The Verge reported that California’s DMV warned Tesla could face a 30‑day suspension of its license to sell cars in the state unless it addresses marketing concerns—potentially including a rebrand of “Autopilot.” [17]
The Associated Press similarly reported California regulators are threatening a 30‑day blackout of Tesla’s sales unless the company adjusts its marketing; AP said Tesla has a 90‑day window to make changes, and noted the manufacturing-license suspension recommended by a judge would not be imposed. [18]
From a stock perspective, this is a key tension point:
- Bulls argue marketing changes won’t derail the autonomy roadmap and may even help Tesla reduce legal risk.
- Bears argue the ruling underscores a credibility gap: Tesla’s driver-assistance systems still require full attention, and regulators may be less willing to green-light rapid expansion of “unsupervised” deployments.
Some on Wall Street appear to be leaning toward “manageable.” A TipRanks/The Fly note said Goldman Sachs does not expect a disruption to Tesla’s business in California amid the ruling. [19]
The fundamentals check: EV demand pressure vs. pockets of strength
Even as TSLA trades near record territory, the car business is sending mixed signals across regions.
U.S. demand: November slump despite cheaper variants
Reuters reported that Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year over year in November to 39,800 vehicles, the lowest since January 2022, even after Tesla rolled out cheaper “Standard” versions of key models. [20]
Reuters also linked part of the demand hit to policy: the Trump administration ended the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September, and EV demand softened broadly afterward. [21]
Europe: new “low-cost” push and battery investment
In Europe, Reuters reported Tesla introduced a lower-cost Model 3 variant (for example, priced at €37,970 in Germany) with deliveries expected in Q1 2026—a sign Tesla is still working the affordability lever to defend volume. [22]
On the industrial side, Reuters reported Tesla plans to expand battery cell production at its German gigafactory, targeting up to 8 GWh of annual output starting in 2027, with several hundred million euros in additional investment (nearly €1 billion total investment in the battery-cell facility). [23]
China: November rebound off a competitive battlefield
Reuters reported Tesla’s China-made Model 3/Y sales rose 9.9% year over year in November, and were up 41% from October—helped by new/updated variants, but with competition intensifying from local players. [24]
Norway: a bright spot
Reuters also reported Tesla set an annual sales record in Norway with registrations surpassing a prior national record, helped by buyers rushing ahead of an EV tax hike. [25]
The next near-term catalyst: Q4 deliveries (and the expectations gap)
With Tesla’s stock pricing in a lot of autonomy optimism, the next hard datapoint investors are likely to trade is Q4 2025 deliveries.
Different forecasts show how divided expectations are:
- FactSet consensus cited in reporting is around 450,000 Q4 deliveries. [26]
- A Deutsche Bank view highlighted by WallStreetPit projects ~405,000 Q4 deliveries (down year-over-year), with 1.62 million for full-year 2025—below some consensus estimates—and notes margin pressure. [27]
This gap matters because it’s a classic TSLA setup: if deliveries disappoint, bulls may argue “autonomy matters more than autos,” while bears may argue the autonomy timeline doesn’t justify ignoring a weakening core business.
Energy storage is quietly growing in importance
Tesla’s energy business doesn’t always drive the daily TSLA tape, but it is increasingly part of the longer-term “Tesla is more than cars” narrative.
A December 15 press release posted by Euronext says SPIE signed a three-year renewable European framework agreement with Tesla tied to deployment of Tesla Megapack battery energy storage systems (BESS), standardizing legal and operational conditions for Megapack projects across SPIE’s European subsidiaries. [28]
The release cites specific large-scale projects (including hundreds of Megapacks and gigawatt-hour scale deployments) that underscore how grid storage is becoming a major adjacent market for Tesla’s hardware and software ecosystem. [29]
TSLA stock forecast: analyst targets are wide, and the consensus is cautious
If you’re looking for a clean Wall Street consensus on Tesla stock, you won’t find one—at least not at today’s price levels.
MarketBeat’s aggregated data (as of Dec. 22, 2025) shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold (44 analyst ratings)
- Average 12‑month price target:$404.14
- Range:$19.05 (low) to $600 (high) [30]
With TSLA trading around the high‑$400s premarket, that average target implies meaningful downside—yet the high target highlights that some analysts still see Tesla’s autonomy/AI optionality as transformative. [31]
Recent high-profile calls shaping sentiment
A few analyst notes and media-framed forecasts have been especially influential in December:
- Mizuho: raised its target to $530 (per Investopedia’s reporting), tying upside to progress in self-driving/robotaxi expansion. [32]
- Wedbush: reiterated a Street‑high $600 target and has floated a potential $3 trillion valuation scenario by end of 2026 in a bullish case focused on AI and robotaxis. [33]
- Goldman Sachs: maintained a Neutral stance with a $400 target amid California-related Autopilot concerns, according to multiple reports/aggregations. [34]
- Morgan Stanley: a new Tesla analyst downgraded the stock (MarketWatch report), reflecting the pushback that valuation may be “ahead of itself” after the rally. [35]
The macro backdrop: why high-growth stocks like Tesla are getting air cover
TSLA isn’t trading in a vacuum. A friendlier rate narrative can amplify the appeal of “long-duration” growth stories like autonomy and robotics.
Investopedia noted that cooler inflation data has fueled hopes the Fed could continue cutting rates next year, helping support risk appetite and tech-heavy leadership into a holiday-shortened week. [36]
What to watch next for Tesla stock
Here are the near-term signposts most likely to move TSLA from here:
- Q4 production & deliveries: Investors are bracing for a volatility event; commentary is already building around the early‑January update cadence. [37]
- Regulatory developments in California: How Tesla changes wording, branding, or disclosures could matter for perception—especially if Tesla pushes harder on “unsupervised” robotaxi messaging. [38]
- Robotaxi expansion evidence: New disclosures about fleet size, incident rates, and operational domains (Austin vs. other markets) could validate—or challenge—the premium embedded in the stock. [39]
- Proof points in storage and manufacturing investment: Progress on large-scale Megapack deployments and the Germany battery-cell roadmap can reinforce the “platform company” narrative. [40]
Bottom line for Dec. 22, 2025: Tesla stock is trading the future—while the present stays messy
Tesla’s current stock story is a tug-of-war:
- The bull case leans on autonomy, robotaxis, AI, robotics, and energy storage—plus the idea that regulatory hurdles will be navigable and that incremental technical progress will scale quickly. [41]
- The bear case points to pressure on deliveries, demand sensitivity after incentives changed, and intensifying scrutiny of how Tesla markets and deploys self-driving features—at a time when the share price suggests extraordinary expectations. [42]
For TSLA, the next few weeks are likely to revolve around a familiar question: Can Tesla’s real-world robotaxi progress arrive fast enough to keep investors looking past weakening auto fundamentals? [43]
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.theverge.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. techcrunch.com, 12. techcrunch.com, 13. techcrunch.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.businessinsider.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. www.theverge.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. wallstreetpit.com, 28. live.euronext.com, 29. live.euronext.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.marketwatch.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. www.marketwatch.com, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. sherwood.news, 38. www.theverge.com, 39. techcrunch.com, 40. live.euronext.com, 41. www.investopedia.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com
